Nate Silver vs Intrade in Iowa

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[Antonio the Sixth]

I like Nate and he often outperforms everybody when it comes to electoral predictions, but this time I really think his forecast model is hugely overconfident.

[© tweed]

I like Nate and he often outperforms everybody when it comes to electoral predictions, but this time I really think his forecast model is hugely overconfident.

models are not self-aware.  Silver himself has commented that he believes the Romney number too high and Santorum too low.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like Nate and he often outperforms everybody when it comes to electoral predictions, but this time I really think his forecast model is hugely overconfident.

models are not self-aware.  Silver himself has commented that he believes the Romney number too high and Santorum too low.

Is this thread about the forecasted odds or about Nate's gut feeling ?

[© tweed]

I like Nate and he often outperforms everybody when it comes to electoral predictions, but this time I really think his forecast model is hugely overconfident.

models are not self-aware.  Silver himself has commented that he believes the Romney number too high and Santorum too low.

Is this thread about the forecasted odds or about Nate's gut feeling ?

forecasted

[TheGlobalizer]

Intrade, by far.  I think they still overvalue Romney, his support is soft, easier to get over the phone than in an hours-long caucus.

Not a fan of Nate Silver.

[© tweed]

Not a fan of Nate Silver.

that's a shame, you should be

[TheGlobalizer]

Not a fan of Nate Silver.

that's a shame, you should be

Too much personal bias in his analysis.  At least there was in 2008; not sure how much he's improved, but moving to NYT doesn't speak particularly well of that notion.

[argentarius]

Intrade, by far.  I think they still overvalue Romney, his support is soft, easier to get over the phone than in an hours-long caucus.

Not a fan of Nate Silver.

I disagree on Romney's support. His support now seems to be even more rock solid than Paul. Whether they're politically active though is different entirely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like Nate and he often outperforms everybody when it comes to electoral predictions, but this time I really think his forecast model is hugely overconfident.

models are not self-aware.  Silver himself has commented that he believes the Romney number too high and Santorum too low.

Is this thread about the forecasted odds or about Nate's gut feeling ?

forecasted

So what's your point exactly ?

[© tweed]

that a model cannot be 'overconfident' as it is not self-aware, and that evidence exists to suggest  Nate himself is not overconfident in his model.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney's not going to win Iowa. I stake my reputation as an ace prognosticator and firm, but caring lover on it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

that a model cannot be 'overconfident' as it is not self-aware, and that evidence exists to suggest  Nate himself is not overconfident in his model.

Seriously, I can't believe you actually didn't get it. By "overconfident" I obviously meant it overestimated the frontrunner's likelihood to win.