2012 Wave Election

[BigSkyBob]

Democrats left a lot of seats on the table in 2006. 

But they took a lot of those seats in 2008. Democrats knocked out people like Marilyn Musgrave and Robin Hayes in 2008 that they didn't win in 2006.

Republicans left almost nothing on the table in 2010. 

After 2008, the Democrats held about 258 seats. Currently, the Republicans hold 242. I don't see any rational reason to claim that the GOP couldn't win as many seats as the Democrats have held.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Democrats left a lot of seats on the table in 2006. 

But they took a lot of those seats in 2008. Democrats knocked out people like Marilyn Musgrave and Robin Hayes in 2008 that they didn't win in 2006.

Republicans left almost nothing on the table in 2010. 

Not true. They still have possible pick ups in California, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, and Arkansas for example.

Repeat after me. Congresswoman Jackie Walorski. That's the Indiana pick up. If we got the 7 th that would be amazing. The almost assured pickup is the seat currently held by "silent" Joe Donnelly. He's gonna be getting Mourdock or Lugar slid.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats left a lot of seats on the table in 2006. 

But they took a lot of those seats in 2008. Democrats knocked out people like Marilyn Musgrave and Robin Hayes in 2008 that they didn't win in 2006.

Republicans left almost nothing on the table in 2010. 

Not true. They still have possible pick ups in California, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, and Arkansas for example.

Oregon?  Schrader won by five points over a good opponent in 2010 and in Connecticut, Republicans arent picking up CT-05 unless Obama is losing the district. 

[redcommander]

Democrats left a lot of seats on the table in 2006. 

But they took a lot of those seats in 2008. Democrats knocked out people like Marilyn Musgrave and Robin Hayes in 2008 that they didn't win in 2006.

Republicans left almost nothing on the table in 2010. 

Not true. They still have possible pick ups in California, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, and Arkansas for example.

Oregon?  Schrader won by five points over a good opponent in 2010 and in Connecticut, Republicans arent picking up CT-05 unless Obama is losing the district. 

Again though, just because he did well in 2010, doesn't mean Republicans should hang up the towel and let Democrats have a blank check to pick up seats. Democrats did pretty well in Oregon in 2010, but Republicans did make up a lot of ground in the state legislature, and with unemployment incredibly high in the state, they have a shot of picking up the seat. CT-5 is an open seat and will be competitive on both sides.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats left a lot of seats on the table in 2006. 

But they took a lot of those seats in 2008. Democrats knocked out people like Marilyn Musgrave and Robin Hayes in 2008 that they didn't win in 2006.

Republicans left almost nothing on the table in 2010. 

Not true. They still have possible pick ups in California, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, and Arkansas for example.

Oregon?  Schrader won by five points over a good opponent in 2010 and in Connecticut, Republicans arent picking up CT-05 unless Obama is losing the district. 

Again though, just because he did well in 2010, doesn't mean Republicans should hang up the towel and let Democrats have a blank check to pick up seats. Democrats did pretty well in Oregon in 2010, but Republicans did make up a lot of ground in the state legislature, and with unemployment incredibly high in the state, they have a shot of picking up the seat. CT-5 is an open seat and will be competitive on both sides.

Obama would probably have to lose Oregon for Republicans to pick up OR-05. 

[Torie]

For what it is worth, I view the clear  pick ups and loses from redistricting to be close to a wash. Granted, the Pubbies will be moving a host of marginals that they now hold into safer territory, but that is another matter. So for net pick ups and losses, you are down to the marginals. Depending on NY, and what the courts do in Florida and Texas and so forth, there may be around 40 marginals - marginal in the sense that they could flip in a wave ( I am talking about a wave, not a tsunami - I don't see a tsunami in the cards). Obviously in a GOP wave, the GOP marginals won't flip.  So the upside for the GOP in a GOP wave might be 20 or so seats. Yes, I am pulling my numbers out of my ass, but I don't think I will be that far off.

Come to think of it, in a wave, maybe there will be about 35 GOP marginals, and 20 Dem ones. It probably is not perfectly symmetrical. This is all guesswork though.

[California8429]

Americans Elect at its current standing of make up (which I'm sure will drastically expand and change) leans pretty far to the left of the middle, though I'm guessing it will be a more moderate ticket if this becomes a real thing.

[J. J.]

I have been looking at the possibility of not a wave election, but a realignment.  2010 might have been the start.

I would expect redistricting to net the R's 4-10 seats in the House.  If we are in a realignment that will expand it.  If there isn't, it will cut into D gains, but possibly not by much.

There are, even after 2010, more marginal D House seats than R ones.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

I would expect that even with a weak Obama victory, there will be R house gains.  If it is a realignment 20-30 more seats go to R's.  Obama comes roaring back (and that is possible) a 10-15 D seat gain, but probably not enough to take back the House.

[Mr.Phips]

I have been looking at the possibility of not a wave election, but a realignment.  2010 might have been the start.

I would expect redistricting to net the R's 4-10 seats in the House.  If we are in a realignment that will expand it.  If there isn't, it will cut into D gains, but possibly not by much.

There are, even after 2010, more marginal D House seats than R ones.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

I would expect that even with a weak Obama victory, there will be R house gains.  If it is a realignment 20-30 more seats go to R's.  Obama comes roaring back (and that is possible) a 10-15 D seat gain, but probably not enough to take back the House.

Again, there are only about 15 more seats that Republicans could possibly win and redistricting is looking like pretty much a wash.  It will take a Republican victory at the Presidential level to give the GOP gains at the House level.  If Republicans were to gain seats in both the House and Senate while Obama was being reelected, it would be the first time in history that a reelected President's party lost seats in both Houses. 

[J. J.]

I have been looking at the possibility of not a wave election, but a realignment.  2010 might have been the start.

I would expect redistricting to net the R's 4-10 seats in the House.  If we are in a realignment that will expand it.  If there isn't, it will cut into D gains, but possibly not by much.

There are, even after 2010, more marginal D House seats than R ones.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

I would expect that even with a weak Obama victory, there will be R house gains.  If it is a realignment 20-30 more seats go to R's.  Obama comes roaring back (and that is possible) a 10-15 D seat gain, but probably not enough to take back the House.

Again, there are only about 15 more seats that Republicans could possibly win and redistricting is looking like pretty much a wash.  It will take a Republican victory at the Presidential level to give the GOP gains at the House level.  If Republicans were to gain seats in both the House and Senate while Obama was being reelected, it would be the first time in history that a reelected President's party lost seats in both Houses. 

Mr. Phipps, if you look at the list, a 2 point shift to the R's could shift 30 seats.  I'm estimating, after redistricting a 20-30 gain, with an Obama major loss.

[Mr.Phips]

I have been looking at the possibility of not a wave election, but a realignment.  2010 might have been the start.

I would expect redistricting to net the R's 4-10 seats in the House.  If we are in a realignment that will expand it.  If there isn't, it will cut into D gains, but possibly not by much.

There are, even after 2010, more marginal D House seats than R ones.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

I would expect that even with a weak Obama victory, there will be R house gains.  If it is a realignment 20-30 more seats go to R's.  Obama comes roaring back (and that is possible) a 10-15 D seat gain, but probably not enough to take back the House.

Again, there are only about 15 more seats that Republicans could possibly win and redistricting is looking like pretty much a wash.  It will take a Republican victory at the Presidential level to give the GOP gains at the House level.  If Republicans were to gain seats in both the House and Senate while Obama was being reelected, it would be the first time in history that a reelected President's party lost seats in both Houses. 

Mr. Phipps, if you look at the list, a 2 point shift to the R's could shift 30 seats.  I'm estimating, after redistricting a 20-30 gain, with an Obama major loss.

There were only about 10 districts that Democrats won by less than 2% and in almost all of the cases, that only happened because of a super energized GOP base and super low Democratic turnout.  That wont happen in a Presidential year.  Districts like WA-02, CA-11, VA-11, IA-01,  NY-23, and NY-22 will not be going GOP unless Obama somehow gets Hooverized.