December 2011: Overpopulation in the GOP Field

[sentinel]

So, lets say that in December 2011 the following are still in the race as declared candidates:

Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Herman Cain of Georgia
Newt Gingrich of Georgia
Sarah Palin of Alaska
Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan
Rudolph Giuliani of New York
Rick Perry of Texas
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota
Gary Johnson of New Mexico
Ron Paul of Texas
Jimmy McMillan of New York
Buddy Roemer of Louisiana
Roy Moore of Alabama
John Bolton of Maryland
George Pataki of New York


What do the polls look like nationally with all these people running in December 2011? More than a few wouldn't even be in the polls, but I threw their names in the ring anyway. How about in Iowa and New Hampshire? Any guess on how Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina turn out?

This is just for fun...I don't think Pataki will enter the race, but the rest of them is more probable.

[tmthforu94]

Mitt Romney is certainly the best candidate for the GOP nominee, as he's our best chance at defeating President Obama.

I see Bachmann narrowly leading Perry in Iowa, with Romney behind in third. In New Hampshire, I see Romney maintaining his lead with Paul and Huntsman both back by around 15 points. Michigan and Nevada will both be big wins for Romney, and South Carolina will likely be won by whoever won the Iowa Caucus or Romney.

[NHI]

Romney is the best candidate running and the only one who can beat Barack Obama.

IA: Bachmann pulls out a win with Romney following either second or third, depending on Perry's entrance.
NH: Romney wins.
MI: Romney hands down.
NV: Romney hands down.
SC: Toss up, either Bachmann or Romney narrowly.

[sentinel]

Romney is the best candidate running and the only one who can beat Barack Obama.

IA: Bachmann pulls out a win with Romney following either second or third, depending on Perry's entrance.
NH: Romney wins.
MI: Romney hands down.
NV: Romney hands down.
SC: Toss up, either Bachmann or Romney narrowly.

Mitt Romney is certainly the best candidate for the GOP nominee, as he's our best chance at defeating President Obama.

I see Bachmann narrowly leading Perry in Iowa, with Romney behind in third. In New Hampshire, I see Romney maintaining his lead with Paul and Huntsman both back by around 15 points. Michigan and Nevada will both be big wins for Romney, and South Carolina will likely be won by whoever won the Iowa Caucus or Romney.

I'd agree with both of your predictions. As of now, I think Bachmann could pull an upset in Iowa...and maybe South Carolina, which would be much closer. Romney will sweep New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada --once he wins though he'll play more strongly in South Caorlina...even with more players in the field, I still see Romney winning the nomination. I can also see a third candidate taking Bachmann's place in Iowa but it sure as hell won't be Tim Pawlenty.

I'm sure Bachmann will make a gaffe in the debates as well. I wish Huntsman and Johnson were doing better.

[Gustaf]

There is something of a natural market mechanism working at these things - people won't support a candidate they don't think has any chance at all, and thus that candidate ends up with poll support and no money. Eventually such a candidate tends to drop out. This is somewhat disrupted by self-serving biases, but I still have a hard time seeing more than say 10 candidates actually running.

[Gustaf]

In 2008 Romney finished 4th in South Carolina, behind even Fred Thompson, with 15% of the vote. Why do people think he will have a chance there now? Is it because you think McCain voters there will tend to go to him or what?

[Yelnoc]

In 2008 Romney finished 4th in South Carolina, behind even Fred Thompson, with 15% of the vote. Why do people think he will have a chance there now? Is it because you think McCain voters there will tend to go to him or what?

Where else will they go (if Huntsman isn't in it at that point)?  Sure, you could argue taht his older voters have radicalized and become Tea Partiers, but there were plenty of real moderates backing him.  I can't seem them supporting Bachmann or Perry.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Romney, then Huntsman, then Paul.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Romney and Huntsman. I'll probably vote for Romney in the SC primary if it looks like Bachmann has a chance. I doubt huntsman will get anywhere, unfortunately.

[Gustaf]

I think McCain appealed to a lot of voters that were not natural Romney voters. But I could be wrong there.

I expect the South to be Romney's major obstacle though (with the exception of Florida). It's conceivable that he could win without doing well in a place like SC. He would still presumably take New York, California and those other states as long as Huntsman or Pawlenty doesn't pick up any speed.

[tmthforu94]

In 2008 Romney finished 4th in South Carolina, behind even Fred Thompson, with 15% of the vote. Why do people think he will have a chance there now? Is it because you think McCain voters there will tend to go to him or what?

The most recent polling done in South Carolina had Romney leading, unless Demint was in the race. I'm sure he'd lose that lead by December, but once you factor in the momentum from New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada, it's certainly not out of the question. I personally think Romney will look more towards Florida as his "game changer" state. A win in both South Carolina and Florida will likely seal the deal for him. A win in one or the other will still give him a good advantage going into Super Tuesday.

[TheGlobalizer]

I said Huntsman, but frankly, I couldn't parse the question well enough to understand what was being asked or what it had to do with "overpopulation in the GOP field".

He's the best candidate for beating Obama.  Ron Paul is #2, though he has a very, very low floor if he starts scaring the sh** out of people.