What's Going On In PA?!

[J. J.]

I was apparently the only one who thought the race would close.

Uh, what?

I said it about six weeks ago.  Same thing happened with Santorum in 1994.

I'm surprised it didn't get closer about a fortnight ago.

I wasn't here then but I find it hard to believe a few people here didn't insist that it would narrow. I know plenty of people outside of this bubble thought it would.

It was pessimism central.  You have people here talking about 100 seat GOP gain in the House and control of the Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

[Rowan]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

[Keystone Phil]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

Haha, do they not do crosstabs or anything? That's hilarious, if true.

[cinyc]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

Haha, do they not do crosstabs or anything? That's hilarious, if true.

We should all be wary about TCJ.  We know nothing about their pollster, their methodology or pretty much anything.

[Keystone Phil]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

Haha, do they not do crosstabs or anything? That's hilarious, if true.

We should all be wary about TCJ.  We know nothing about their pollster, their methodology or pretty much anything.

Oh, I'm not taking it seriously at all. My friend just told me about it and I laughed out loud.

That being said, could Toomey really be up by five? Sure. After all, Sestak's own internal had Sestak down two yesterday.

[Rowan]

In my opinion, it seems like some guy paid 20 bucks for a domain name and started producing these "polls" in order to drive traffic to his site.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

You got me excited.

[cinyc]

But before Sestak supporters get too down, "TCJ" stands for "The Conservative Journal." 

There's no proof that those polls are even real.

Haha, do they not do crosstabs or anything? That's hilarious, if true.

We should all be wary about TCJ.  We know nothing about their pollster, their methodology or pretty much anything.

Oh, I'm not taking it seriously at all. My friend just told me about it and I laughed out loud.

That being said, could Toomey really be up by five? Sure. After all, Sestak's own internal had Sestak down two yesterday.

Put it this way - they claim a sample size of 1,000 and an MoE of either +/- 4 or 5, depending on what they want to claim.   The MoE for a poll with a sample size of 1,000 should be lower than that - closer to 3%.

And how the heck are they getting consistent samples of 1,000 likely voters?  That's a lot of respondents - double the sample size of most polls.

[Keystone Phil]

Word is that 8,000 absentee ballots have been requested in Philadelphia. The deadline to request is tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Am I correct in believing this is not a lot (I don't know PA elections "that" well)?

[Keystone Phil]

Am I correct in believing this is not a lot (I don't know PA elections "that" well)?

Yep