Obama is a one termer. Even if he succeeds somewhat he'll spend all his political capital to get some semblance of success.
Defeated incumbents of the last 100 years are, in reverse chronological order:
GHWB
Carter
Ford
Hoover
Taft
In chronological order:
1. 1912.
William Howard Taft, the odd man out in an election that featured a well-respected former President and a candidate who had strong regional support.
I can see only one obvious analogy between 1912 and 2012, and that is the last two digits.
2. 1932.
Herbert Hoover entered the Presidency to high expectations and Americans who expected far better endured the worst economic meltdown in history.
It's highly unlikely that the economic meltdown that began in 2007 under Dubya will last five years. Enough of FDR's programs remain in existence, and enough of them could be revived in all but name, to prevent such bad economic times.
3. 1976.
Gerald Ford became President through the back door -- replacing first a corrupt Vice-President who had to resign, and then a President who resigned due to abuse of power. Not at all charismatic, and hit by economic distress not of his culpability, he barely lost to Jimmy Carter.
Barack Obama, unlike Gerald Ford, did not become President through the political back door.
4. 1980.
Jimmy Carter got caught in a political transition in which the South started to go Republican before the North went Democratic. He barely won in 1976, and then against a weak opponent. In 1979 an anti-American regime overthrew an American ally in Iran and took Americans hostage. In 1980 he faced a shrewd, confident opponent with well-honed rhetoric... and lost.
Barack Obama succeeded a President largely discredited for causes other than economic distress. He won decisively against the strongest candidate that the GOP then had. Add to this Barack Obama is at least as adept in political dealings and in getting his message across as was Ronald Reagan, making a comparison to Jimmy Carter absurd.
5. 1992.
GHWB was the first Vice President to succeed the President since Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson in 1836. Except for some successes in foreign policy, the elder Bush got the same results -- including a financial panic and electoral defeat.
Obama follows a catastrophic failure of the Presidency, and if the Republicans have a charismatic challenger in the wings in 2012, then that person will have to come out of nowhere fast.
... If Dreadful Dubya could be re-elected, then it won't take much for Obama to win re-election.
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