if obama wins, will the gop regain congress in 2010?

[Torie]

Hmmm. You predicted Obama would carry Florida or something? 

[TheresNoMoney]

Neither, no way. The numbers certainly favor the Democrats again in 2010, especially in the Senate.

[J. J.]

"After you, the deluge," is what I will say to the winner of the 2008 election.

[Mr. Morden]

Best case scenario for the Republicans in the Senate: The Dems pick up "only" a net of four seats in 2008, Obama wins with Bayh as his running mate, thus giving Bayh's seat to the GOP, and Lieberman jumps ship and starts caucusing with the GOP.  So the Dems' gain of four seats is cut down to two, putting them up to 53-47 (counting Sanders with the Dems and Lieberman with the GOP).  Then in 2010, you have a huge GOP year, in which Lincoln, Reid, Salazar, and Obama's replacement in Illinois are all defeated, while the GOP holds onto every seat it's defending.  The GOP then has a 51-49 advantage after the 2010 (though of course, that counts Lieberman with the GOP, and he'll probably still vote with the Dems on most domestic issues).

Hmmm....I don't suppose you could have some additional craziness, like Barbara Boxer retiring, and Schwarzenegger winning her Senate seat?  Or just some random scandal or death, who knows?

[Associate Justice PiT]

     The Senate is close to impossible. I'd give it <1% chance of happening. The House is more possible, but still not likely. I would guess it has close to a 3% chance of flipping in 2010.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If the Republicans have either 46 or 45 after 2008. I think they can if things go horribly for Obama's first term win the Senate they may pull it off. Reid's percentage will be no where near 60 like last time. He would be the most vulnerable Democrat.

If Evan Bayh is Veep we gain that seat in 2009 if he isn't chosen he may retire in which it will be very competative.

Two states that have been not been mentioned are Connecticut and Wisconsin. Now before you say I am crazy let me explain. Chris Dodd has said he is not running for reelection now that was a technically so he get his Senate money for a Prez run. However he may be hurt by the countrywide scandle and thus really retire or be damaged goods for reelection in which Jodi Rell could take the open seat or beat a scandle tarred Dodd. Purely speculative though. Considering that Russ Feingold is higly liberal he may be vulnerable to a strong challenger which he has not face sine 1998. Tommy Thompson may want to reenter politics via a Senate run and would be Feingold's strongest challenge yet. Paul Ryan might also be strong.

Byron Dorgan could retire in which John Hoeven would easily slide into the Senate the way Mark Warner is in Virginia right now. If Dorgan runs again Hoeven might not want to run if he did it would start out as a toss-up.

Finally in Colorado Salazar was lucky had he faced Schafer he would have lost in 2004. Bill Owens, state atty. Gen. John Sutherland, and maybe Bob Schafer if he loses this year could give Salazar a race.

There are possible but unlikely chances in Illinois,Washington, California and Arkansas. Vermont I would not even try this isn't 1920.

There is a seat that could be up, West Virginia. Its no secret Byrd is on his last legs and could sadly kick the bucket before 2012. If that happens Joe Manchin(D) would appoint a replacement who would have a special election in 2010. Three Demcorats come to mind that could be picked. Nick Rahal, Alan Mollohan, and former Governor Bob Wise. The Republican candidate and early favorite for the the special election would be would be Shelley Moore Capito.   


2012 will be a much better year for Republicans with weak incumbentsw in Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota(if Dodd falls cause of the countrywide scandle watch this one).  Potentially open seats in West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. Who knows Bob Casey is constantly browsing the wanted ads he may find a new more appealing job and Pennsylvania will be a target. In 2006 the math favored the Republicans, cause they lost seats in 2000, yet they lost 6 seats and so the GOP only has 9 seats up in 2012.

[Associate Justice PiT]

2012 will be a much better year for Republicans with weak incumbentsw in Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota(if Dodd falls cause of the countrywide scandle watch this one).  Potentially open seats in West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. Who knows Bob Casey is constantly browsing the wanted ads he may find a new more appealing job and Pennsylvania will be a target.

     Ben Nelson & Kent Conrad are as strong as incumbents come.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

i say the house.

The House never switches without the Senate. 

Special elections after the 1930 election caused the Democrats to pick up the House but not the Senate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

2012 will be a much better year for Republicans with weak incumbentsw in Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota(if Dodd falls cause of the countrywide scandle watch this one).  Potentially open seats in West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. Who knows Bob Casey is constantly browsing the wanted ads he may find a new more appealing job and Pennsylvania will be a target.

     Ben Nelson & Kent Conrad are as strong as incumbents come.

Nelson only won by 2 in 2000 and would have had a tight race had Mike Johanns ran for the seat. His landslide was cause by a very weak opponet. As I said if Dodd is weaken in 2010 by the Countrywide financial scandle Conrad could be in trouble cause he like Dodd got a very favorable morgage. I said many of these are very specualtive and what I layed out was a best case scenario for the GOP.

[specific_name]

Predicting 2010 is impossible. If Obama becomes president, I predict he will be very weak, especially when it comes to the growing threat of Russia. I foresee Obama becoming another Carter. This will push the tide against the dems.

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republicans have either 46 or 45 after 2008. I think they can if things go horribly for Obama's first term win the Senate they may pull it off. Reid's percentage will be no where near 60 like last time. He would be the most vulnerable Democrat.

If Evan Bayh is Veep we gain that seat in 2009 if he isn't chosen he may retire in which it will be very competative.

Two states that have been not been mentioned are Connecticut and Wisconsin. Now before you say I am crazy let me explain. Chris Dodd has said he is not running for reelection now that was a technically so he get his Senate money for a Prez run. However he may be hurt by the countrywide scandle and thus really retire or be damaged goods for reelection in which Jodi Rell could take the open seat or beat a scandle tarred Dodd. Purely speculative though. Considering that Russ Feingold is higly liberal he may be vulnerable to a strong challenger which he has not face sine 1998. Tommy Thompson may want to reenter politics via a Senate run and would be Feingold's strongest challenge yet. Paul Ryan might also be strong.

Byron Dorgan could retire in which John Hoeven would easily slide into the Senate the way Mark Warner is in Virginia right now. If Dorgan runs again Hoeven might not want to run if he did it would start out as a toss-up.

Finally in Colorado Salazar was lucky had he faced Schafer he would have lost in 2004. Bill Owens, state atty. Gen. John Sutherland, and maybe Bob Schafer if he loses this year could give Salazar a race.

There are possible but unlikely chances in Illinois,Washington, California and Arkansas. Vermont I would not even try this isn't 1920.

There is a seat that could be up, West Virginia. Its no secret Byrd is on his last legs and could sadly kick the bucket before 2012. If that happens Joe Manchin(D) would appoint a replacement who would have a special election in 2010. Three Demcorats come to mind that could be picked. Nick Rahal, Alan Mollohan, and former Governor Bob Wise. The Republican candidate and early favorite for the the special election would be would be Shelley Moore Capito.   


2012 will be a much better year for Republicans with weak incumbentsw in Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota(if Dodd falls cause of the countrywide scandle watch this one).  Potentially open seats in West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. Who knows Bob Casey is constantly browsing the wanted ads he may find a new more appealing job and Pennsylvania will be a target. In 2006 the math favored the Republicans, cause they lost seats in 2000, yet they lost 6 seats and so the GOP only has 9 seats up in 2012.

No Republican is going to win a Senate race in Massachussetts.

[Mr.Phips]

Predicting 2010 is impossible. If Obama becomes president, I predict he will be very weak, especially when it comes to the growing threat of Russia. I foresee Obama becoming another Carter. This will push the tide against the dems.

Democrats actually did fairly well in 1978 midterms considering that they had a two to one majority in the House and 61 seats in the Senate.  They lost just 15 in the House(went from 292 to 277) and three in the Senate(going to 58 seats).  If Obama can replicate this in 2010, he is doing very well. 

[Verily]

Thanks for the list Verily.  Gregg, Voinovich, Specter (he won't lose the primary in the GOP's current decrepit state, and particularly after Santorum got bitch slapped), Murkowski, and McCain I doubt will be vulnerable if they run again. But Specter, McCain and Voinovich may well not run again. Bunning won't be running again, so mark that down as an open seat. Vitter and Martinez will be in play.

Voinovich has disastrous approval ratings (in the mid-30s) last I checked, and was tied with the much lower name-rec Tim Ryan in a very premature poll Rasmussen did a few months ago. He's probably the most vulnerable Republican incumbent save Mel Martinez. Gregg it all depends on the candidate, but he's not more popular than Sununu.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If the Republicans have either 46 or 45 after 2008. I think they can if things go horribly for Obama's first term win the Senate they may pull it off. Reid's percentage will be no where near 60 like last time. He would be the most vulnerable Democrat.

If Evan Bayh is Veep we gain that seat in 2009 if he isn't chosen he may retire in which it will be very competative.

Two states that have been not been mentioned are Connecticut and Wisconsin. Now before you say I am crazy let me explain. Chris Dodd has said he is not running for reelection now that was a technically so he get his Senate money for a Prez run. However he may be hurt by the countrywide scandle and thus really retire or be damaged goods for reelection in which Jodi Rell could take the open seat or beat a scandle tarred Dodd. Purely speculative though. Considering that Russ Feingold is higly liberal he may be vulnerable to a strong challenger which he has not face sine 1998. Tommy Thompson may want to reenter politics via a Senate run and would be Feingold's strongest challenge yet. Paul Ryan might also be strong.

Byron Dorgan could retire in which John Hoeven would easily slide into the Senate the way Mark Warner is in Virginia right now. If Dorgan runs again Hoeven might not want to run if he did it would start out as a toss-up.

Finally in Colorado Salazar was lucky had he faced Schafer he would have lost in 2004. Bill Owens, state atty. Gen. John Sutherland, and maybe Bob Schafer if he loses this year could give Salazar a race.

There are possible but unlikely chances in Illinois,Washington, California and Arkansas. Vermont I would not even try this isn't 1920.

There is a seat that could be up, West Virginia. Its no secret Byrd is on his last legs and could sadly kick the bucket before 2012. If that happens Joe Manchin(D) would appoint a replacement who would have a special election in 2010. Three Demcorats come to mind that could be picked. Nick Rahal, Alan Mollohan, and former Governor Bob Wise. The Republican candidate and early favorite for the the special election would be would be Shelley Moore Capito.   


2012 will be a much better year for Republicans with weak incumbentsw in Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota(if Dodd falls cause of the countrywide scandle watch this one).  Potentially open seats in West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. Who knows Bob Casey is constantly browsing the wanted ads he may find a new more appealing job and Pennsylvania will be a target. In 2006 the math favored the Republicans, cause they lost seats in 2000, yet they lost 6 seats and so the GOP only has 9 seats up in 2012.

No Republican is going to win a Senate race in Massachussetts.

I never said they would. I just said the seat could be open and we have not seen and open race in Massachusetts since 1984 and that was close as was 1990 and 1996 with an incumbent. Granted the state has gone more Democratic since then but anything is posible

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republicans have either 46 or 45 after 2008. I think they can if things go horribly for Obama's first term win the Senate they may pull it off. Reid's percentage will be no where near 60 like last time. He would be the most vulnerable Democrat.

If Evan Bayh is Veep we gain that seat in 2009 if he isn't chosen he may retire in which it will be very competative.

Two states that have been not been mentioned are Connecticut and Wisconsin. Now before you say I am crazy let me explain. Chris Dodd has said he is not running for reelection now that was a technically so he get his Senate money for a Prez run. However he may be hurt by the countrywide scandle and thus really retire or be damaged goods for reelection in which Jodi Rell could take the open seat or beat a scandle tarred Dodd. Purely speculative though. Considering that Russ Feingold is higly liberal he may be vulnerable to a strong challenger which he has not face sine 1998. Tommy Thompson may want to reenter politics via a Senate run and would be Feingold's strongest challenge yet. Paul Ryan might also be strong.

Byron Dorgan could retire in which John Hoeven would easily slide into the Senate the way Mark Warner is in Virginia right now. If Dorgan runs again Hoeven might not want to run if he did it would start out as a toss-up.

Finally in Colorado Salazar was lucky had he faced Schafer he would have lost in 2004. Bill Owens, state atty. Gen. John Sutherland, and maybe Bob Schafer if he loses this year could give Salazar a race.

There are possible but unlikely chances in Illinois,Washington, California and Arkansas. Vermont I would not even try this isn't 1920.

There is a seat that could be up, West Virginia. Its no secret Byrd is on his last legs and could sadly kick the bucket before 2012. If that happens Joe Manchin(D) would appoint a replacement who would have a special election in 2010. Three Demcorats come to mind that could be picked. Nick Rahal, Alan Mollohan, and former Governor Bob Wise. The Republican candidate and early favorite for the the special election would be would be Shelley Moore Capito.   


2012 will be a much better year for Republicans with weak incumbentsw in Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota(if Dodd falls cause of the countrywide scandle watch this one).  Potentially open seats in West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. Who knows Bob Casey is constantly browsing the wanted ads he may find a new more appealing job and Pennsylvania will be a target. In 2006 the math favored the Republicans, cause they lost seats in 2000, yet they lost 6 seats and so the GOP only has 9 seats up in 2012.

No Republican is going to win a Senate race in Massachussetts.

I never said they would. I just said the seat could be open and we have not seen and open race in Massachusetts since 1984 and that was close as was 1990 and 1996 with an incumbent. Granted the state has gone more Democratic since then but anything is posible

In 1984 Kerry still won 55%-45% during the Reagan landslide and when the state was much more open to voting for Republicans. 

[phk]

Better for Obama's sake in 2010 than 2012 or 2016.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

i say the house.

Not if he does something to stop it from happening (which is what Clinton should have done).

[Mr.Phips]

i say the house.

Not if he does something to stop it from happening (which is what Clinton should have done).

This is basically what Jimmy Carter did in 1978.  He got together with the DCCC and the AFL-CIO the minute he was inaugerated to come up with a plan to keep Republican gains minimal in the 1978 midterms.  Clinton did not do anything like this in 1993.  It was like he didnt even care.  If Obama is smart, he will follow the Jimmy Carter model. 

[opebo]

Neither.  2010 will likely be a good year for the Democrats.

How on earth can you predict that. It will all depend on what kind of job Obama does as President. The Democrats already have a large majority coming out of the 2008 elections. Those majorities never seem to last that much as the country swings back and forth.

Actually, the fact that we are in an extremely bad economic condition at the moment means that, as per usual, we should be in a 'recovery' of sorts two years from now.  This is how the 'capitalist' system works.  Of course this is dependent on oil at least falling a little rather than resuming its rise.

So, with good economic times (or at least as good as they get in these days of poor government policy), the incumbent party will not lose many seats in either House or Senate.

[jeron]

The Dems would definitely lose some seats, but not near enough to switch the house or the senate

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Unless the Democrats have a massive meltdown of 1932 Republican proportions in 2010, the absolute best that the GOP can hope to do in the 2010 Senate race is pick up five seats.  Considering that I expect the Dems to pick up four to five seats this time, that suggests that the best the Republicans can hope for is to keep Obama's VP busy presiding over the Senate.