You're best off following a 2 term Democratic President, in a year in which national security would be an issue of importance. It would also help to run against someone from New England or the West Coast.
^^^What he said.
National Security is of importance because the current president bombed Tehran. His VP (previously a Senator from Vermont) is running on a "what he did was reprehensible, we should make peace with Iran" platform. The FBI uncovers a terrorist bomb plot a couple of weeks before the election.