Can we put the kibosh on the Bradley effect?

[MR maverick]

Its fair to say that if Obama was a white guy  he'd be 20pts ahead and McCain wouldn't even care to put up a fight.   Matter of fact flip this ticket around Biden - Obama and McCain wouldn't stand a chance assuming Obama is a big part of the campaigning.

The Only reason McCain wins this election is because of race and I hate to be blunt about it but thats the cold hard fact.   They are spending money in Pa because they are hoping for that Bradley effect plain and simple.   In the last 4 weeks McCain has clearly lost the election on the merits and like Hillary is wishing for Americas racist chickens to come home to roost Nov 4Th.   In my OP thats going to happen.

[elcorazon]

I want to agree with that Phil, I just want to understand it.  I would assume that it would be DEMOCRATS who might feel guilty about voting against Barack and not admit it to a pollster, as opposed to Republicans or Independants.  I could be wrong, but I'm having a hard time being convinced I'm wrong since I've yet to really hear an argument that makes sense for why it would be occurring in the general, rather than the primary.

Your comment of "welcome to the other 60% of the electorate" indicated to me you had a sense that there was good reason to suspect this impact would be greater among Republicans and Independants.  I've yet to hear an explanation.

Ok then let's be honest - the very liberal people that tend to make up most of the Democratic base are going to have less of a problem voting for a black person. I think that's obvious. You just wanted me to say it.

actually, no and it still doesn't answer my question.  of course obama will do better among liberals, that much is obvious.  But why would a voter tell a pollster they are voting for obama or are undecided and then wind up voting against him (as opposed to any other candidate who isn't black)?  I had thought that some moderate dems with some sense of guilt that they SHOULD vote Obama might be unlikely to want to tell a pollster otherwise.  Republicans and Independants, I would have guessed, wouldn't feel as much guilt if they were voting for a republican as they do that all the time (or at least with some regularity). 

Anyway, I still don't think the Bradley effect is really a major factor in this election.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would a voter tell a pollster they are voting for obama or are undecided and then wind up voting against him (as opposed to any other candidate who isn't black)?  I had thought that some moderate dems with some sense of guilt that they SHOULD vote Obama might be unlikely to want to tell a pollster otherwise. 

...

Now we're just arguing in circles. The whole point of the Bradley Effect is that people say they want the black guy so that they don't get portrayed or thought of as racists.

It goes back to my little ancedote about my Mom's feelings when Quinnipiac polling called here. My Mom thought the pollster (a black woman) seemed irritated/forceful, kept repeating questions (I guess to get a different answer), etc. Truth be told, I think my Mom was blowing it out of proportion but it got to the point where my Mom felt uncomfortable about giving the pollster certain information and was convinced that there was a bias. My Mom said that she was strongly for McCain and Palin and disliked Obama and Biden but then again my Mom is a strong, partisan (though apparently "moderate") Republican yet she still was hesitant to answer some questions. Now imagine people that aren't as set in their beliefs and think of how they'll respond in this polling.

[Nym90]

The "Bradley effect" is indeed a myth; Deukmeijan was surging in the polls coming into election day. The trend just continued up to and including election day.

The "Wilder effect" may exist, though I don't know why explaining that result on the basis of Wilder's race makes any more sense than explaining it on the basis of any other particular characteristic of Wilder.

[gorkay]

I can't speak about the Bradley effect, but I know all about the Wilder effect. I worked on his campaign and I can tell you that everybody who worked for him got the shock of their lives on election night. We all thought he had it in the bag, and he just barely scraped by. I don't guess it can ever be proven whether or not race was the main factor in his underperforming his poll numbers, but I don't know what other characteristic of his could account for it. There were plenty of characteristics that would become obvious after he got elected, but not so much before. He was a moderate Democrat running in a state in which, at that time, it was nearly impossible for a moderate Democrat to lose a statewide election.

[MR maverick]

There you have it.  McCain has run a very bad campaign and most of the time in American history bad campaigns LOSE and lose BIG.

If McCain wins and the polls showed Obama leading it 50% on Monday, it will be  the Bradley effect plain and simple.

Next weeks polls will be very interesting because its the last full week of campaigning.

[J. J.]

There you have it.  McCain has run a very bad campaign and most of the time in American history bad campaigns LOSE and lose BIG.

If McCain wins and the polls showed Obama leading it 50% on Monday, it will be  the Bradley effect plain and simple.

Next weeks polls will be very interesting because its the last full week of campaigning.

For a good measure, we should look at states why Obama has a strong lead, CA, MA and NY.

[MR maverick]

There you have it.  McCain has run a very bad campaign and most of the time in American history bad campaigns LOSE and lose BIG.

If McCain wins and the polls showed Obama leading it 50% on Monday, it will be  the Bradley effect plain and simple.

Next weeks polls will be very interesting because its the last full week of campaigning.

For a good measure, we should look at states why Obama has a strong lead, CA, MA and NY.

1. Libreal leaning states which isn't a bad thing but there u have it.

2. Education levels are better the voters are more informed of the issues and unlike the other states are not brainwashed into voting against their own intrests.

3. Well then you claim these places are not real America then there goes those states.