Can we put the kibosh on the Bradley effect?

[Lunar]

MR politics, this is all I have to say to you:

Obama almost never holds rallies in heavily black areas, it makes for a bad photo op.

How the hell do you know what this guy would have told a pollster?

Obama campaigns in the closest states, which is never Georgia or West Virginia.

Assassins are capable of using cars to travel outside of the Deep South.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

West Va ... Yea it could be the case whens the last time Obama campaigned in the state?

May. Back during the primaries.

Notice no rallies in deep south states and I bet he could draw alot of people in places like Atl.

Yeah he could if it wouldn't be a total waste of time in Georgia. It's not like he's been terrified of visiting North Carolina.

And this as well:

Assassins are capable of using cars to travel outside of the Deep South.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For that matter any assassin actually able to take out a Presidential candidate (not an easy task) is going to be a real pro at it, not some dumb redneck with a gun, who supposedly are the types of the Secret Service are worried about if this guy is taken seriously. And they would target based on logistics, take note of where he would be speaking or traveling, where they could pull off the best shot, etc. How overall friendly the state is to the person in question is not an issue.

[cinyc]

West Va ... Yea it could be the case whens the last time Obama campaigned in the state?  The secret service remembers Dallas and how  Adlai had problems there during his campaign. 

Notice no rallies in deep south states and I bet he could draw alot of people in places like Atl.

The Secret Service doesn't tell candidates in which states they can or cannot campaign or what they can or cannot say.   And even if they did, a candidate would not need to listen to them.  The Secret Service simply doesn't have that authority.

[MR maverick]

NOVA is going to tank McCain in VA by the way. I suspect VA will have a zero or negative GOP bias now.

Once upon a time, I would have been skeptical, but the fact they voted in kiddie porn author Jim Webb feels a lot like foreshadowing.

Jim Webb for president 2012.

[Lunar]

For that matter any assassin actually able to take out a Presidential candidate (not an easy task) is going to be a real pro at it, not some dumb redneck with a gun, who supposedly are the types of the Secret Service are worried about if this guy is taken seriously. And they would target based on logistics, take note of where he would be speaking or traveling, where they could pull off the best shot, etc. How overall friendly the state is to the person in question is not an issue.

No, I think MR Politics is right, they all are only capable of traveling on foot and only got activated after the primaries are over (not when Obama was spending weeks and weeks in the Deep South previously).

I mean, it's hard to travel very far when you look like this:

[MR maverick]

The secret service does have some say so in the campaigning local.

The candidate just can't go to any area without them checking it out and making sure everthing is right.   Hell whites in the south didn't think the black guy would get past Hillary.

Still Obama will not go to West Va ,however he sending Biden.. go figure.

[Lunar]

Any sources for your undoubtedly false claim that the SS can order a candidate not to visit a city or state?





"Ugh, I'd kill that terrorist but this gun is so heavy, I can't carry it over these mountains, put it in my car, or carry it on board public transportation, so I guess I'll just stay home and watch TV.  God daaaaaaarmn that Obama for not visiting within two miles of my home location"

[MR maverick]

Any sources for your undoubtedly false claim that the SS can order a candidate not to visit a city or state?





"Ugh, I'd kill that terrorist but this gun is so heavy, I can't carry it over these mountains, put it in my car, or carry it on board public transportation, so I guess I'll just stay home and watch TV.  God daaaaaaarmn that Obama for not visiting within two miles of my home location"

I can't answer that.

The proof is in that fact that Obama will not go to west Va, but sends Joe Biden.

[Lunar]

That's not proof that the Secret Service told him not to.  He doesn't visit most states!

Biden, however, visits all kinds of states, like Washington.  He visits blue-collar areas like WV because Biden is more popular there than Obama, that's the only reason.  Obama's trying to make himself be a more generic Democrat and less transformational in these places.  Showing his face would undo that.

[opebo]

Of course I have no way of knowing if the Bradley effect is still in effect, but I think it is a bit careless and overly optimistic for Democrats to assume that it is not, based on nothing more than hope. 

The way I look at the race is less in terms of the Bradley effect and more that the undecideds will break heavily for the white, and the polling should shift back towards very, very close here in the next week or two.  Add even a very small Bradley effect to this, and I'm afraid we are looking at Bush III.

[J. J.]

First, I was raising this in September when McCain was ahead.

Second,  there were five races in 2006 where a black candidate ran statewide.  One (PA), I could find no late data.  One Ford (TN), there was no Bradley Effect.  In the other three, the white candidate, be he victorious or defeated, be he Republican or Democrat, tended to underpoll, but not by a lot.

Third, with one exception, there has never been a claim of a Bradley Effect in a Primary.  That claim is NH, and I disagree that it was the Bradley Effect.

[afleitch]

That claim is NH, and I disagree that it was the Bradley Effect.

True. That was down to the pollsters not the voters.

[J. J.]

That claim is NH, and I disagree that it was the Bradley Effect.

True. That was down to the pollsters not the voters.

I sort of disagree with the Vorlon on this point.  FL might be the hardest state to poll but NH is the hardest state to poll accurately.  People in NH have a habit of messing with the pollsters, especially before the NH primary.

I will be surprised if McCain isn't overpolling slightly, but I do not expect a 9-10 point Bradley Effect.  I'd be surprised if he underpolls by 5 points, but not hugely by 3 points.

[Kalimantan]

My take on it is this:

The Bradley effect should only be noticeable amongst democrats wanting to vote for the republican in a general election (if the black candidate is a democrat). There's no logic in republicans or independents being affected by the Bradley effect, or for it to appear in a primary.

The strength of the Bradley effect will thus depend on the nature of the election, with the popularity and party of any incumbent also important. If its a personality election, party-ID will be less important to how people vote and the Bradley effect could be big. If the election is a straight generic repub v generic dem fight, then the Bradley effect will most likely be small. This general seems to be shaping up to be the latter.

Importantly, the Bradley Effect is not an indication of racism per se. My their nature, any racist won't feel embarassed about choosing the white guy. Bradley effect will appear in people who are worried about being perceived as racist.

[elcorazon]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

so you think that Republicans and Independants are more likely to lie to pollsters and say they are voting for a black guy, but then vote against him?  why?

whole theory's never made sense to me.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Can we not use the word 'kibosh'?

I actually liked seeing the word...........but to the question, no we can't put the kibosh on it yet.

[elcorazon]

I love kibosh.

[Keystone Phil]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

why would Republicans need to hide behind the Bradley Effect when wouldn't be voting for a white candidate with similar views?

I was mainly talking about Independents but I think it applies to Republicans as well this year. There's a lot of pressure to at least consider Obama.

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

so you think that Republicans and Independants are more likely to lie to pollsters and say they are voting for a black guy, but then vote against him?  why?

whole theory's never made sense to me.

Why is anyone lying about voting for the black guy? Guilt, pressure to support the "Change" guy this time, etc.

[Keystone Phil]

Race as a political issue was most salient to a small sliver of the electorate. It may have been decisive in NH, but Hillary likely would've won Ohio and PA without the racial vote.

I'm disagreeing that race was the decisive issue in NH but I've been saying what you're saying about OH and PA for awhile now. I don't know why you're repeating it.

[elcorazon]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

why would Republicans need to hide behind the Bradley Effect when wouldn't be voting for a white candidate with similar views?

I was mainly talking about Independents but I think it applies to Republicans as well this year. There's a lot of pressure to at least consider Obama.

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

so you think that Republicans and Independants are more likely to lie to pollsters and say they are voting for a black guy, but then vote against him?  why?

whole theory's never made sense to me.

Why is anyone lying about voting for the black guy? Guilt, pressure to support the "Change" guy this time, etc.

uh, way to miss the point.

1.  if it's not about race, but about change, then why is the Bradley effect only discussed relative to black candidates?
2.  whether it's "lying" or just guilt/pressure, why do you presume independants and republicans are more likely to fall prey to this than democrats?

[davajuan]

This effect needs a new name. I'll submit one idea: The Emperor's Clothes Effect.

All in all, Obama supporters I have met, (amazingly, D, R & I) feel very good about voting for Obama. They are vocal, energized and slap your valid, thoughtful objections away like so much pablum.

McCain supporters (me too!) I know feel doudy, unhip, and in an extreme minority.

The key is that a good number of eventual McCain supporters are keeping their feelings to themselves. My theory is that a sizeable chunk can see plainly that Obama is as naked as the day he was born when it comes to substance, but they lack the drive, enthusiasm and eloquence to explain why. So they lie dormant, claim to be undecided, or even fudge their position to protect their ego.

Race doesn't figure much in this new equation. The driving force is the subconscious internal desire to be in the mainstream, i.e. be able to turn on the TV without feeling like a resident alien. And this drive is strong enough to dampen their public enthusiasm without changing their final ballot.

Bottom line: Both a rabid, feverish, change-the-world vote for Obama and a tepid, reluctant one from myself are equal. Should translate into a few points nationwide.

[Keystone Phil]

uh, way to miss the point.

1.  if it's not about race, but about change, then why is the Bradley effect only discussed relative to black candidates?

I'm not saying that it's not about race. I think race is part of it.

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I'm just saying that this is a bigger picture now. You have to deal with way more people. You can't just say that because it wasn't present in Democratic primaries that it won't be present in the General.

[elcorazon]

I want to agree with that Phil, I just want to understand it.  I would assume that it would be DEMOCRATS who might feel guilty about voting against Barack and not admit it to a pollster, as opposed to Republicans or Independants.  I could be wrong, but I'm having a hard time being convinced I'm wrong since I've yet to really hear an argument that makes sense for why it would be occurring in the general, rather than the primary.

Your comment of "welcome to the other 60% of the electorate" indicated to me you had a sense that there was good reason to suspect this impact would be greater among Republicans and Independants.  I've yet to hear an explanation.

[Keystone Phil]

I want to agree with that Phil, I just want to understand it.  I would assume that it would be DEMOCRATS who might feel guilty about voting against Barack and not admit it to a pollster, as opposed to Republicans or Independants.  I could be wrong, but I'm having a hard time being convinced I'm wrong since I've yet to really hear an argument that makes sense for why it would be occurring in the general, rather than the primary.

Your comment of "welcome to the other 60% of the electorate" indicated to me you had a sense that there was good reason to suspect this impact would be greater among Republicans and Independants.  I've yet to hear an explanation.

Ok then let's be honest - the very liberal people that tend to make up most of the Democratic base are going to have less of a problem voting for a black person. I think that's obvious. You just wanted me to say it.