Could Hillary get over 55% in a Michigan revote?
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Question: Could Hillary get over 55% in a Michigan revote?
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Yes		  
#2
No (normal)		  
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Author Topic: Could Hillary get over 55% in a Michigan revote?  (Read 1167 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« on: March 21, 2008, 07:33:52 PM »
?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2008, 07:35:30 PM »
probably not.  she would probably get around 52%

the better question for you is will obama keep it within 15 in the pa.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2008, 07:36:55 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 21, 2008, 07:35:30 PM
probably not.  she would probably get around 52%

She got 55% in the first vote, with 30% of people who said they'd vote for Obama if he was on the ballot voting for her.
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Erc
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2008, 07:37:26 PM »
Yes, because any Michigan revote at this point would be a mail-in primary, which would be singularly unpredictable.

Likely?  No, not at all.  Possible?  Certainly.
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Smash255
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2008, 07:38:32 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 21, 2008, 07:35:30 PM
probably not.  she would probably get around 52%

the better question for you is will obama keep it within 15 in the pa.

Another race in MI would be an extremely close one.  Obama will be within 15 in PA, the math simply doesn't allow for him not to be once Philly & sububran Philly is taken into consideration.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2008, 07:39:50 PM »
Quote from: Erc on March 21, 2008, 07:37:26 PM
Yes, because any Michigan revote at this point would be a mail-in primary, which would be singularly unpredictable.

Not anymore than Oregon.
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Beet
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2008, 07:40:41 PM »
In the original Michigan hypothetical she was winning about 45-37.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2008, 07:41:50 PM »
Quote from: Now We Rise And Are Everywhere on March 21, 2008, 07:36:55 PM
Quote from: WalterMitty on March 21, 2008, 07:35:30 PM
probably not.  she would probably get around 52%

She got 55% in the first vote, with 30% of people who said they'd vote for Obama if he was on the ballot voting for her.

1.  exit polls are crap.
2. exit polls from january are even more crap.

clinton would be the favorite in michigan.  i think most normals would agree, even though michigan is also a jesse jackson state from 88 (thanks detroit!)
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2008, 07:47:35 PM »
Easily.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2008, 08:54:01 PM »
Apparantly, one of the people that thinks she could is Obama.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2008, 09:28:16 PM »
No, I think Obama would win narrowly. It doesn't matter anymore though anyway.
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2008, 09:40:35 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 21, 2008, 09:28:16 PM
No, I think Obama would win narrowly. It doesn't matter anymore though anyway.

It might.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2008, 09:41:35 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on March 21, 2008, 09:40:35 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 21, 2008, 09:28:16 PM
No, I think Obama would win narrowly. It doesn't matter anymore though anyway.

It might.

How so? Do you know something I don't?
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J. J.
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2008, 10:04:38 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 21, 2008, 09:41:35 PM
Quote from: J. J. on March 21, 2008, 09:40:35 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 21, 2008, 09:28:16 PM
No, I think Obama would win narrowly. It doesn't matter anymore though anyway.

It might.

How so? Do you know something I don't?

The voters that elected those uncommitted delegates included Edwards supporters, IIRC Richardson supports, some of whom will prefer Clinton to Obama.  Some of the truly uncommitted were undecided and some of those will shift to Clinton.  I don't expect it to be a lot, but I'd expect Clinton to gain some.  The race was basically Clinton vs. someone who wasn't Clinton; some voters in that "someone who wasn't Clinton" will vote for her over Obama.

Now, I think Obama will get the lion's share of those voters that elected those 55 delegates, but not all of them.  A revote would tell; Obama does not want to try it.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2008, 10:36:30 PM »
hahaha....no.
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King of the Bench
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2008, 10:38:01 PM »
Yeah if Obama publicly vomits on an old lady or something
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2008, 11:07:07 PM »
Heck no, and even IF she did, that'd give Obama some more delegates and would probably push him over the edge (factoring in at least few superdelegates).
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Nym90
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2008, 11:45:12 PM »
It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. I would guess she'd get around 51-52 percent in a 2 way race.
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