Is this the most interesting primary race in US history?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The most interesting nomination fight has to be the 1924 Klanbake.  This one doesn't come close to that.

[Aizen]

It's definitely a doozy

[Mr. Morden]

Have there been any primary races since the modern system started (post-1968) that had as many different "frontrunners" at different times in the race as the 2008 GOP primary race?

3?

I think you could argue for Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson all being front-runners at one point.

Yes, that's what I mean.  All five of them were considered frontrunners or at least co-frontrunners at some point during the last year.  Has there ever been another nomination fight in which there were that many people with co-frontrunner status at different times, and that many big momentum shifts among that many major contenders?  Possibly not, since it's only recently that the campaigning started in earnest a full year before the primaries.  I guess when the process is that long, it's easier to have a huge number of twists and turns in the storyline.

[jimrtex]

1824 or 1912.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Have there been any primary races since the modern system started (post-1968) that had as many different "frontrunners" at different times in the race as the 2008 GOP primary race?

3?

I think you could argue for Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson all being front-runners at one point.

Fred was never a front-runner and everybody but Giuliani knew he'd fail utterly.

[Alcon]

Have there been any primary races since the modern system started (post-1968) that had as many different "frontrunners" at different times in the race as the 2008 GOP primary race?

3?

I think you could argue for Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson all being front-runners at one point.

Fred was never a front-runner and everybody but Giuliani knew he'd fail utterly.

He briefly led national polls.  I consider that to be a front-runner of sorts, although the weakest of the five.

[© tweed]

Fred was never a front-runner and everybody but Giuliani knew he'd fail utterly.

this is just revisionist history.

[Boris]

'68 was by far the most exciting and heartbreaking for obvious reasons, although it possibly could have been even better had it been held under modern rules. Imagine the Hube, Kennedy, and McCarthy battling it out in fifty states. And overall, the zeitgeist of 1968 was just a lot more exciting than the one of today.

[Mr. Morden]

I realize this forum is hardly the definitive word on the conventional wisdom, but name me one primary race as wild and unpredictable as this:

May 2006

George Allen 40.6%
John McCain 31.9%
Mitt Romney 8.7%
Rudy Giuliani 8.7%
Other 8.7%

August 2006

John McCain 39.5%
George Allen 21.1%
Mitt Romney 13.2%
Rudy Giuliani 13.2%
Other (excl. Rice) 13.2%

November 2006

John McCain 46.2%
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rudy Giuliani 15.4%
Mike Huckabee 7.7%
Newt Gingrich 7.7%


March 2007

Rudy Giuliani 45.7%
John McCain 28.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.4%
Mitt Romney 5.7%
Sam Brownback 2.9%
Other (excl. Gingrich) 5.7%

April 2007

Fred Thompson 46.9%
Rudy Giuliani 26.5%
Mitt Romney 12.2%
John McCain 10.2%
Other (excl. Gingrich, Hagel) 4.1%

June 2007

Fred Thompson 34.2%
Rudy Giuliani 31.6%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
John McCain 5.3%
Mike Huckabee 5.3%
Ron Paul 2.6%

July 2007

Mitt Romney 40.9%
Rudy Giuliani 34.1%
Fred Thompson 22.7%
John McCain 2.3%

August 2007

Mitt Romney 42.6%
Rudy Giuliani 31.1%
Mike Huckabee 16.4%
Fred Thompson 4.9%
Ron Paul 4.9%

September 2007

Mitt Romney 52.4%
Rudy Giuliani 31%
Ron Paul 9.5%
Fred Thompson 4.8%
John McCain 2.4%

October 2007

Mitt Romney 44.9%
Rudy Giuliani 30.6%
Mike Huckabee 10.2%
Ron Paul 6.1%
Condoleeza Rice 4.1%
John McCain 2%
Fred Thompson 2%

November 2007

Mitt Romney 39.6%
Rudy Giuliani 27.1%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Ron Paul 4.2%
John McCain 2.1%
Condoleeza Rice 2.1%

December 21-23, 2007

Mitt Romney 36.2%
Mike Huckabee 36.2%
John McCain 17%
Rudy Giuliani 8.5%
Fred Thompson 2.1%

December 31, 2007 - January 2, 2008

Mitt Romney 55.3%
John McCain 26.3%
Mike Huckabee 7.9%
Rudy Giuliani 5.3%
Ron Paul 5.3%

January 5-7, 2008

John McCain 53.2%
Mike Huckabee 29.8%
Mitt Romney 6.4%
Rudy Giuliani 6.4%
Ron Paul 2.1%
other 2.1%

January 10-13, 2008

John McCain 60.4%
Mike Huckabee 27.1%
Rudy Giuliani 6.3%
Mitt Romney 4.2%
Fred Thompson 2.1%

January 21-23, 2008

John McCain 78.8%
Mitt Romney 19.2%
Rudy Giuliani 1.9%

January 31-February 2, 2008

John McCain 90%
Ron Paul 7.5%
Mitt Romney 2.5%

[ottermax]

Considering that its the only one i've ever understood and cared about, yes.

[Boris]

Morden, we shouldn't really define "most exciting" in terms of "most lead changes." And its long duration and anti-climatic ending takes away some of the steam.

I mean, compare the 2008 GOP race to the 1968 Democratic Race. The 2008 GOP race was basically McCain losing momentum over immigration in the summer and regaining momentum by close victories in NH, SC, and FL. In between, you had a few candidates rise and fall. Hardly boring for sure, but how does it compare to Eugene McCarthy coming out of nowhere to take Johnson out of the race, the entrance of RFK, the battle between RFK and McCarthy, the assassination of RFK, and the convention fight? Not to mention that all those events are set against the Vietnam War, race riots, the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. And I stated earlier, the zeitgeist of 1968 was far more exciting than the zeigeist of late 2007/early 2008.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, I basically agree.  I just think it's "most exciting" in terms of how unpredictable it was in the horserace.  But of course that's only one way to measure "excitement".