OH-SEN: Who wins?

[SnowLabrador]

It's pretty shocking how it's been two months since this primary occurred and yet there's been no new polling after that date. In honor of the two-month mark, what is your prediction for this race?

In my mind, I think it'll be Moreno +4, 52-48. In the absence of a third-party candidate on the ballot, Brown will not be able to hope for vote-splitting, and Moreno's running a pretty strong populist campaign as compared to Sheehy's generic one in Montana. What do you all think?

[wnwnwn]

Brown can win  if he does the right campaign and Biden does a good camaping too (and therefore win the election (Let´s say a 303 map). Btw this means a WAY BETTER campaing that the ones he did in 2012 and 2018. The right attack ads and the right positive ads. The type of campaing that makes you win with Romney in NTC.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Brown can win  if he does the right campaign and Biden does a good camaping too (and therefore win the election (Let´s say a 303 map). Btw this means a WAY BETTER campaing that the ones he did in 2012 and 2018. The right attack ads and the right positive ads. The type of campaing that makes you win with Romney in NTC.

It's a 303 map.

[Yoda]

Brown is running literally the perfect ads on the air here, the kind that Moreno can't replicate b/c, well, he doesn't have a long record of concrete, bipartisan accomplishments for real Ohioans with real problems that Brown has.

Brown pulls it out, but b/c of the republican lean of the state his absolute ceiling in a Presidential year will be something like 53%.

[CookieDamage]

I don't see Brown pulling it off this year honestly. In 2018 at this time he was frequently polling near or above 50. This year so far he's been stuck in the 40s. I can imagine Moreno start to catch and outpoll him. I think the final margin will be something like 51-47 GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Brown is running literally the perfect ads on the air here, the kind that Moreno can't replicate b/c, well, he doesn't have a long record of concrete, bipartisan accomplishments for real Ohioans with real problems that Brown has.

Brown pulls it out, but b/c of the republican lean of the state his absolute ceiling in a Presidential year will be something like 53%.

I hope you're right.

[windjammer]

It would be good to have some polls...

[TDAS04]

Moreno has the advantage, unfortunately.

[S019]

I expect Moreno will win decisively in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's no poll we don't know

[Mr. Illini]

Worth noting that Brown is a fundraising juggernaut. He’s raised more than any other Senate candidate and 6x what Moreno has raised.

It’s a pure toss up this far out, though.

[wnwnwn]

A good ad.
Still, no matter how based Brown can be, Ohio is still a GOP leaning state.

[President Johnson]

I feel like Brown is finally running out of luck. Even if Biden gets reelected and doesn't get crushed in Ohio (ergo, just small shifts between 2020 and 2024). As of today, I'd say Moreno wins by three or four points. Brown still has a chance though.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I've already totally written him off.

[iceman]

have we had a good quality poll out of Ohio which showed Moreno leading?

[SnowLabrador]

have we had a good quality poll out of Ohio which showed Moreno leading?

No polls whatsoever have shown Moreno leading. But then, we've had no polls whatsoever since the primary. This is malpractice on the part of pollsters.

[Xing]

Against a competent candidate, I'd have a hard time seeing Brown win, even though he's a solid candidate. Moreno gives him a chance, though. I'd say that he'll overperform Biden by 8-10%, which might or might not be enough to win.

[President Johnson]

have we had a good quality poll out of Ohio which showed Moreno leading?

Even in that case... wasn't Ohio polling extremely unreliable in the spring and over the summer in all previous cycles? I think polls frequently showed a competitive race here before things begun the shift over the fall and Democrats ended up falling short by a solid margin. So even with polls showing Brown ahead, I wouldn't feel more confident unless that lead lasts into October.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brown

[Woody]

Ohio is a massive state. Brown has to flip 200-250K Trump voters as he shares the ballot with a Biden-Trump matchup.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm predicting Moreno but I'm not counting out Brown.

[Vern]

Moreno wins by 1% or less.