Does John Duarte (CA-13th) have the possibility of being a Biden-district entrenched Republican rep?

[Woody]

What is the consensus coming into 2024?

Democrats are poised to put Adam Gray against Duarte again. Couldn't they find any other candidate?

[Roll Roons]

What is the consensus coming into 2024?

Democrats are poised to put Adam Gray against Duarte again. Couldn't they find any other candidate?

I'm skeptical anyone else could have done better than Gray, he'd been a longtime legislator in the area with known crossover appeal and only lost by 1 even as Newsom lost the district by 8.

That said, Duarte is not only the incumbent this time but he's also raised and spent a lot more money than Gray. The district is also only 15% college-educated which tells me that it may be primed for a hard rightward shift.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the consensus coming into 2024?

Democrats are poised to put Adam Gray against Duarte again. Couldn't they find any other candidate?

I'm skeptical anyone else could have done better than Gray, he'd been a longtime legislator in the area with known crossover appeal and only lost by 1 even as Newsom lost the district by 8.

That said, Duarte is not only the incumbent this time but he's also raised and spent a lot more money than Gray. The district is also only 15% college-educated which tells me that it may be primed for a hard rightward shift.

Adam Gray is probably not going to do well this time. He could surprise, though.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I would put this at Lean R honestly, even with higher Latino turnout.

[Tekken_Guy]

Duarte could win but as of right now I think he’s more likely than not to lose.

[Spectator]

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

TJ Cox agrees.

[Spectator]

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

TJ Cox agrees.

“tend” being a key word here.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

Also in that case, congratulations to Joe Biden on winning re-election.

[Spectator]

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

Also in that case, congratulations to Joe Biden on winning re-election.

And I have made the argument before that Biden was favored initially based on that. Re-matches tend to go 95% of the time towards incumbents. Most incumbents aren't 80+ year olds that look like they forgot where they are midway through speeches though.

[SilverStar]

Duarte isn't going to win,he beraly won when Republicans had 10%+ tornout advantage and wouldv'e lost if Newsom wasn't a clown.
Stop being delusional

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

TJ Cox agrees.

“tend” being a key word here.

And Young Kim,Andy Barr,Steve Chabot,IL-10 and NH-01 had few cycles when rivals defeated each other few times

[Spectator]

Duarte isn't going to win,he beraly won when Republicans had 10%+ tornout advantage and wouldv'e lost if Newsom wasn't a clown.
Stop being delusional

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

TJ Cox agrees.

“tend” being a key word here.

And Young Kim,Andy Barr,Steve Chabot,IL-10 and NH-01 had few cycles when rivals defeated each other few times

And you can make a list ten times longer where the rematch goes to the original victor. A handful of exceptions doesn’t throw out the general trend.

[SilverStar]

Duarte isn't going to win,he beraly won when Republicans had 10%+ tornout advantage and wouldv'e lost if Newsom wasn't a clown.
Stop being delusional

I think Duarte wins since rematches don’t tend to workout.

TJ Cox agrees.

“tend” being a key word here.

And Young Kim,Andy Barr,Steve Chabot,IL-10 and NH-01 had few cycles when rivals defeated each other few times

And you can make a list ten times longer where the rematch goes to the original victor. A handful of exceptions doesn’t throw out the general trend.

I don't have the statistics(maybe you have? but only for competitive House races) but Duarte only won becuase of tornout not persuasion and only beraly won in a red wave(California had a red wave,thank you Newsom) so it's not looking good for him.
It's a Biden+15 or +14 District so he will have to have more crossover appeal than Bacon to win,it's not going to happean.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Were Duarte and Gray not on the ballot yesterday because there were only 2 people in the race, or will we get numbers of how they did?

[ottermax]

Duarte currently leads 54%-46% with 24,000 votes to 20,000 votes for Gray.

Central Valley districts tend to have dramatically low turnout.

One peculiar thing about these districts is that in presidential years turnout increases a lot more which even with a rightward shift may still help the Democrat because historically Latino voters just have a higher propensity to vote straight ticket D and this district was specifically made to be a Latino seat (bizarrely contested by two white men).

Nevertheless we saw in 2020 how Valadao (yet another white rep in a Latino seat) managed to win back his seat so that historical trend may not be working out anymore, especially given how weak Biden appears to be with Latinos.

[Tekken_Guy]

Duarte currently leads 54%-46% with 24,000 votes to 20,000 votes for Gray.

Central Valley districts tend to have dramatically low turnout.

One peculiar thing about these districts is that in presidential years turnout increases a lot more which even with a rightward shift may still help the Democrat because historically Latino voters just have a higher propensity to vote straight ticket D and this district was specifically made to be a Latino seat (bizarrely contested by two white men).

Nevertheless we saw in 2020 how Valadao (yet another white rep in a Latino seat) managed to win back his seat so that historical trend may not be working out anymore, especially given how weak Biden appears to be with Latinos.

Given how late votes go I expect this margin to narrow up.