Does John Duarte (CA-13th) have the possibility of being a Biden-district entrenched Republican rep?

[Woody]

Title.. as it seems likely he will defeat Adam Gray in this Central Valley district.

[Vosem]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

[Sestak]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

By this logic, since 2018 was the last cycle where Democrats gained seats, we should think of Republicans gaining net seats in every election as the default as well.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Possible, but highly unlikely and he’s gone in the next Democratic wave.  Honestly, he could easily go down in 2024 if Adam Gray runs again.  This seat will likely always be competitive whenever both parties have solid candidates.  Duarte will never be safe except in years where Dems run a C-lister.  I certainly doubt he lasts the decade.

[Roll Roons]

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

[Vosem]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

By this logic, since 2018 was the last cycle where Democrats gained seats, we should think of Republicans gaining net seats in every election as the default as well.

It wasn't the last cycle at which Democrats gained seats (they actually gained some seats in both 2020 and 2022, although neither year was a net gain) -- it was the last cycle at which Democrats beat a certain very specific kind of incumbent. This topic asks whether Duarte is doomed because he is that type of incumbent.

Probably not; incumbents like Duarte getting entrenched seems like the default outcome over the past few cycles. (We can also go earlier and observe that only two such incumbents lost in 2016, Dold and Hardy, and none at all in 2014). Also, I think Gray was generally considered to be a strong candidate for the area and I don't know of particular missteps he made, which also suggests Duarte should be a decent bet for reelection.

(This logic is a little triumphalist and I wouldn't extend it everywhere; for example even though this suggests Lawler 'should' become entrenched I think he's decently likely to lose in 2024; he got elected because of his opponent's weaknesses, not his own strengths. But Duarte seems, to me, like he got elected because of his own strengths).

[oldtimer]

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

Look at Imperial County, the most hispanic county in California:

2022 Gov: Rep 44%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 40%
2020 Pres: Rep 37%
2018 Gov: Rep 38%
2016 Pres: Rep 26%
2014 Gov: Rep 36%
2012 Pres: Rep 33%

You can see the slow drift of California Hispanics, which there are plenty in the Central Valley.

[Sestak]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

By this logic, since 2018 was the last cycle where Democrats gained seats, we should think of Republicans gaining net seats in every election as the default as well.

It wasn't the last cycle at which Democrats gained seats (they actually gained some seats in both 2020 and 2022, although neither year was a net gain) -- it was the last cycle at which Democrats beat a certain very specific kind of incumbent. This topic asks whether Duarte is doomed because he is that type of incumbent.

Probably not; incumbents like Duarte getting entrenched seems like the default outcome over the past few cycles. (We can also go earlier and observe that only two such incumbents lost in 2016, Dold and Hardy, and none at all in 2014). Also, I think Gray was generally considered to be a strong candidate for the area and I don't know of particular missteps he made, which also suggests Duarte should be a decent bet for reelection.

(This logic is a little triumphalist and I wouldn't extend it everywhere; for example even though this suggests Lawler 'should' become entrenched I think he's decently likely to lose in 2024; he got elected because of his opponent's weaknesses, not his own strengths. But Duarte seems, to me, like he got elected because of his own strengths).

You will note that I said net gains in my post. You have once again identified a pattern that holds in years of Republican net gains (2014, 2020, 2022) and breaks in years of Democratic net gain (2016, 2018). Unless you have good reason to declare Republican net gain as virtually guaranteed in 2024, this is a very silly exercise.

[Aurelius]

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

I've started crunching the numbers on city level swings in counties that have certified, over in the thread I made for CA post election analysis. Based on what we're seeing out of Merced County, it looks like this is the case especially in Hispanic areas. 25.4% rightward margin swing from 2018 to 2022 in majority-Hispanic Livingston! Jim Costa's underperformance in his House race points in a similar direction.

[Xing]

Totally depends on what he does over the next two years. He won’t necessarily have to be super “moderate”, since multiple Republicans (Garcia and Steel, for example) get away with towing the party line almost all the time while still cultivating an “independent” brand. However, if he makes no effort to distinguish himself, he’ll have a hard time winning.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

Look at Imperial County, the most hispanic county in California:

2022 Gov: Rep 44%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 40%
2020 Pres: Rep 37%
2018 Gov: Rep 38%
2016 Pres: Rep 26%
2014 Gov: Rep 36%
2012 Pres: Rep 33%

You can see the slow drift of California Hispanics, which there are plenty in the Central Valley.

I agree that CA Latinos are trending R, but Imperial County isn't a good proxy for CA Latinos across the entire state since it is a very rural and low-population county.

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

I've started crunching the numbers on city level swings in counties that have certified, over in the thread I made for CA post election analysis. Based on what we're seeing out of Merced County, it looks like this is the case especially in Hispanic areas. 25.4% rightward margin swing from 2018 to 2022 in majority-Hispanic Livingston! Jim Costa's underperformance in his House race points in a similar direction.

What are the vote totals? How much of this is from significantly higher R turnout than 2018 as opposed to just a dropoff in D turnout?

[Aurelius]

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

Look at Imperial County, the most hispanic county in California:

2022 Gov: Rep 44%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 40%
2020 Pres: Rep 37%
2018 Gov: Rep 38%
2016 Pres: Rep 26%
2014 Gov: Rep 36%
2012 Pres: Rep 33%

You can see the slow drift of California Hispanics, which there are plenty in the Central Valley.

I agree that CA Latinos are trending R, but Imperial County isn't a good proxy for CA Latinos across the entire state since it is a very rural and low-population county.

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

I've started crunching the numbers on city level swings in counties that have certified, over in the thread I made for CA post election analysis. Based on what we're seeing out of Merced County, it looks like this is the case especially in Hispanic areas. 25.4% rightward margin swing from 2018 to 2022 in majority-Hispanic Livingston! Jim Costa's underperformance in his House race points in a similar direction.

What are the vote totals? How much of this is from significantly higher R turnout than 2018 as opposed to just a dropoff in D turnout?

Livingston in 2018 went 2003 Newsom, 724 Cox. In 2022 it went 1445 Newsom, 934 Dahle.

[Tekken_Guy]

He’s easily the most vulnerable in 2024 out of him, Valadao, and Garcia. And honestly even the latter two are hardly out of the woods in the future.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it really depends upon how he chooses to present himself. If he can kinda be a semi-moderate who's really in touch with the working people of his district, I could see him overcoming partisanship going forwards. However, if he just becomes a generic R he'll prolly lose.

It also seems like this cycle, the Central Valley had like *really* bad turnout, especially amongst Hispanics. I think racial stats can be a bit misleading because even if CA-13 and CA-22 are like 60% Hispanic, the electorate this cycle was prolly majority white.

One of the things I find most interesting about the 2022 results here was the regional polarization in the district. In the Merced portion, Gray really didn't underrun Biden by much, but Duarte got literally insane swings in the Madera and Fresno portions close to 20 points. Since Merced was the first county to be all in, that's why I thought Gray had this; I did not anticipate the Fresno and Madera swings would be that heavy and I wonder why he did well specifically there from 2020 Pres numbers.

[Spectator]

I’d like to see the Gov and Sen numbers here and for places like CA-45, CA-27, and CA-41. I have a strong suspicion that the good R House numbers will look a lot less impressive by comparison then, and wouldn’t be surprised if some of them even underperformed the R Sen and Gov candidates. In that case, I imagine most of those that fail to significantly exceed the R Sen/Gov baseline will be toast in 2024 when Biden will be winning those seats with ease.

[Mr.Phips]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

I mean, the number of Republican incumbents in Biden seats in 2020 was pretty small.  You had PA-01,   NY-24, NE-02, and CA-25.  The first three survived 2018 (a D+8 year) and two of them were facing the same weak opponents they faced in 2018.  The fourth was very close and likely would have been won by Dems had they not stupidly dropped in person canvassing (this could have been done while wearing masks and being socially distant like in the GA runoffs).  The Dem incumbents who lost in Biden districts (FL-27, CA-21, CA-39, CA-48) all likely lost for this same reason (lack of in person canvassing to get more Biden voters to vote a straight Dem ticket).

[coloradocowboi]

He's not DOA and certainly could win in 2024 and beyond if he plays his cards right.

One thing to note is that if educational polarization continues, the Central Valley could see major Republican gains.

Look at Imperial County, the most hispanic county in California:

2022 Gov: Rep 44%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 40%
2020 Pres: Rep 37%
2018 Gov: Rep 38%
2016 Pres: Rep 26%
2014 Gov: Rep 36%
2012 Pres: Rep 33%

You can see the slow drift of California Hispanics, which there are plenty in the Central Valley.

Then why are 2/3 DSA districts in LA Hispanic majority districts? Why did Bernie win the state based on Chicano voters?

It’s not as simple as you’re making it sound, and imperial county is v rural and a terrible barometer of statewide latino public opinion. Not to mention we know for a fact latino turnout was abysmal this year.

[Vosem]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

By this logic, since 2018 was the last cycle where Democrats gained seats, we should think of Republicans gaining net seats in every election as the default as well.

It wasn't the last cycle at which Democrats gained seats (they actually gained some seats in both 2020 and 2022, although neither year was a net gain) -- it was the last cycle at which Democrats beat a certain very specific kind of incumbent. This topic asks whether Duarte is doomed because he is that type of incumbent.

Probably not; incumbents like Duarte getting entrenched seems like the default outcome over the past few cycles. (We can also go earlier and observe that only two such incumbents lost in 2016, Dold and Hardy, and none at all in 2014). Also, I think Gray was generally considered to be a strong candidate for the area and I don't know of particular missteps he made, which also suggests Duarte should be a decent bet for reelection.

(This logic is a little triumphalist and I wouldn't extend it everywhere; for example even though this suggests Lawler 'should' become entrenched I think he's decently likely to lose in 2024; he got elected because of his opponent's weaknesses, not his own strengths. But Duarte seems, to me, like he got elected because of his own strengths).

You will note that I said net gains in my post. You have once again identified a pattern that holds in years of Republican net gains (2014, 2020, 2022) and breaks in years of Democratic net gain (2016, 2018). Unless you have good reason to declare Republican net gain as virtually guaranteed in 2024, this is a very silly exercise.

The pattern mostly held in 2016, and patterns like this one can only ever be 'mostly'. It seems like a general rule that 'a Republican incumbent who has won a general election in a blue seat is probably entrenched enough to hold on absent a wave, which comes roughly once a decade'.

'Duarte is not entrenched enough to win in 2024' seems like it implies either '2024 will be a Democratic wave' (unlikely but possible) or 'this win was in some way so flukish as to be unlikely to be repeated'; this seems potentially true of some of the NY stuff but doesn't seem to apply here. (Alternatively, Duarte could lose if this area swings Democratic really hard; Dold lost in 2016 not because his 2014 win was a fluke so much as because the seat trended 14 points further left because Trump was unusually poisonous there. If the Central Valley zooms left overall in 2024, then Duarte might also lose, but this doesn't seem particularly likely; the area dislikes Trump but doesn't seem to hate him, whereas DeSantis would if anything be a better fit than usual).

[Figueira]

Not completely entrenched, because even Valadao lost once and came close to losing this time, but he could become semi-entrenched in the way that Valadao is. It depends on how he acts and votes, though. He's new to politics so it's impossible to confidently predict.

[kwabbit]

I think Duarte probably survives 2024, but not because of a huge overperformance. It's more likely that his district simply becomes more Republican because it has low education levels and a very high Hispanic population. That's why I think Valadao continues to win as well.

[Sbane]

I’d like to see the Gov and Sen numbers here and for places like CA-45, CA-27, and CA-41. I have a strong suspicion that the good R House numbers will look a lot less impressive by comparison then, and wouldn’t be surprised if some of them even underperformed the R Sen and Gov candidates. In that case, I imagine most of those that fail to significantly exceed the R Sen/Gov baseline will be toast in 2024 when Biden will be winning those seats with ease.

In the Governor and Senate races, CA-45 was likely very close with the Republicans maybe winning by a couple points. Steel was the one who overperformed.

[Tekken_Guy]

That's almost what you'd expect, right? 2018 was the last cycle at which Democrats defeated Republicans who had been elected in general elections to blue seats. In 2020, all Republicans representing either Clinton '16 or Biden '20 seats were reelected. In 2022, all Republicans who had won a Biden '20 seat in 2020 and contested a new Biden '20 seat in 2022 were reelected (Herrell and Chabot lost, but they both were redistricted to Biden '20 seats from Trump '20 seats; Flores lost, but she won a special, not the 2020 general).

We should probably think of this outcome as the default unless there's a blue wave.

I mean, the number of Republican incumbents in Biden seats in 2020 was pretty small.  You had PA-01,   NY-24, NE-02, and CA-25.  The first three survived 2018 (a D+8 year) and two of them were facing the same weak opponents they faced in 2018.  The fourth was very close and likely would have been won by Dems had they not stupidly dropped in person canvassing (this could have been done while wearing masks and being socially distant like in the GA runoffs).  The Dem incumbents who lost in Biden districts (FL-27, CA-21, CA-39, CA-48) all likely lost for this same reason (lack of in person canvassing to get more Biden voters to vote a straight Dem ticket).

The incumbents who lost in Biden districts in 2020 all had their own unique reasons for losing. Shalala was a terrible candidate who had zero connection to the Cuban community. Cox had major scandals in his term and Valadao still functioned as the de-facto incumbent in the rematch. The OC seats are still functionally GOP downballot and CA-48 in particular just wasn't winnable against a Republican not named Dana Rohrabacher.

A lot of these same factors nearly sunk Malinowski in 2020 as well (he was a low-profile first-termer in an ancestrally OGP area whose opponent had quasi-incumbency).

[ottermax]

I just spent Thanksgiving in Modesto and I will say that CA-13 is not as simple as many are describing.

While it is a majority-Hispanic district it is also very broken in terms of communities with Lathrop, Modesto, Ceres, and Turlock having a much stronger Bay Area exurb influence, Merced being a growing college town, and Madera being its own ecosystem.

If the Hispanic right-ward shift continues AND turnout returns for Hispanic voters I think Duarte would be favored. However I think there are some unusual trends in this district specifically with people continuously moving into San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties who are generally more conservative than Bay Area voters but would probably still lean left relative to the Central Valley. UC Merced continues to expand and grow which will only help Democrats.

There are huge numbers of non-voting Hispanics who did seem to turnout more for Trump. However I think so much of that in 2020 was an anti Covid restriction vote more than anything else. Gas prices and water issues might compel more Hispanics to vote Republican, but union and wage issues continue to strengthen Democratic support for some in these communities.

--

From a lawn sign perspective I saw far more Republican signage from Merced South, and just less overall signage in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.

Maher had tons of signs for his campaign against Costa still up.

[Woody]

Easily one of my favorite new members of Congress. Very good at retail politics/messaging. Other candidates need to take notes from him.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RepDuarteCA13/status/1617347497541894145?cxt=HHwWgoDQ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/RepDuarteCA13/status/1616637955338272769?cxt=HHwWgoDQ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/RepDuarteCA13/status/1616275765917782021?cxt=HHwWisDQ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/RepDuarteCA13/status/1617778331159760898?cxt=HHwWhMDQ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/RepDuarteCA13/status/1618459642941825026?cxt=HHwWhIDT...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Easily one of my favorite new members of Congress. Very good at retail politics/messaging. Other candidates need to take notes from him.

*cut*

Yes def seems political savy and knows what he's doing which tends to make me lean towards him being able to regularly outperform partisanship and building up a personal brand.