Rate VA-02

[Woody]

Incumbent Jen Kiggans (R) vs Missy Cotter Smasal (D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

CA, 27, 41, CO 9, NY 3, 17, 19 are gonna flip we need 2, more to make up for 3 losses in NC and VA 2 is one

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden is still favored to carry it atop the ballot, but I don’t see Kiggans losing.

[wnwnwn]

Tilt R by now, but good camapining could make ir swing.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lean R. This is exactly the kind of district where a Republican who wins their first term narrowly can then hold on to their seat by decent margins until the next blue wave, even if the seat trends leftward and votes Dem on the presidential level.

And also VA-02 is fundamentally different from the NOVA seats - one may think of VA-02 as AZ and NOVA as GA - no tremendous population growth or demographic change or continual political shift is occurring here. In fact it's got a solid floor for the GOP by virtue of being a military base district. Virginia Beach is fundamentally not a liberal city in the way Arlington or Alexandria or Richmond may be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean R. This is exactly the kind of district where a Republican who wins their first term narrowly can then hold on to their seat by decent margins until the next blue wave, even if the seat trends leftward and votes Dem on the presidential level.

And also VA-02 is fundamentally different from the NOVA seats - one may think of VA-02 as AZ and NOVA as GA - no tremendous population growth or demographic change or continual political shift is occurring here. In fact it's got a solid floor for the GOP by virtue of being a military base district. Virginia Beach is fundamentally not a liberal city in the way Arlington or Alexandria or Richmond may be.

Ye def think this is a fair point about demographics, and if you watch any interview content with Kiggans she will always try to throw in something about helping veterans or funding the military.

However, I think Dems also know it's a district with a lot of activate duty members, veterans, and other people who work for the military, and will try to message accordingly. I could see Trump at the top of the ballot causing problems for Kiggans if he makes more military/veteran gaffes.

I'd say tilt R for now, with Trump being a huge wildcard.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lean R. This is exactly the kind of district where a Republican who wins their first term narrowly can then hold on to their seat by decent margins until the next blue wave, even if the seat trends leftward and votes Dem on the presidential level.

And also VA-02 is fundamentally different from the NOVA seats - one may think of VA-02 as AZ and NOVA as GA - no tremendous population growth or demographic change or continual political shift is occurring here. In fact it's got a solid floor for the GOP by virtue of being a military base district. Virginia Beach is fundamentally not a liberal city in the way Arlington or Alexandria or Richmond may be.

Ye def think this is a fair point about demographics, and if you watch any interview content with Kiggans she will always try to throw in something about helping veterans or funding the military.

However, I think Dems also know it's a district with a lot of activate duty members, veterans, and other people who work for the military, and will try to message accordingly. I could see Trump at the top of the ballot causing problems for Kiggans if he makes more military/veteran gaffes.

I'd say tilt R for now, with Trump being a huge wildcard.

Honestly I would say Biden could win the district by 5 points or even a bit more and Kiggans might still hold on. And I don't expect him to win by much more than 5.

Kiggans can disassociate from Trump and, as you yourself said, instead focus on veterans issues and her work as a congresswoman for the military and veterans or wtv.

I'd definitely say that trying to nationalize the race would benefit Democrats much more than the GOP at this stage and in this kind of a district. Biden, for all his flaws, is in a stronger position than he was in 2022, and that's (imo) especially true for foreign policy (sure some far-lefters are mad he isn't supporting Palestine more, but they're far from the median voter in this district).

[MT Treasurer]

A strong Lean R. The GOP's poor performance in VA in 2022 was a sign that something went wrong for Republicans nationally that had nothing to do with "candidate quality" — I’ve posted about my theory of what that *something* was before and at length, but I do think presidential turnout, incumbency, and the GOP field for VA-SEN will help Kiggans here, as will her lackluster opponent. It’s still a very competitive district and she can’t afford Biden to carry the state by quite as much as in 2020, though.

[Tekken_Guy]

A strong Lean R. The GOP's poor performance in VA in 2022 was a sign that something went wrong for Republicans nationally that had nothing to do with "candidate quality" — I’ve posted about my theory of what that *something* was before and at length, but I do think presidential turnout, incumbency, and the GOP field for VA-SEN will help Kiggans here, as will her lackluster opponent. It’s still a very competitive district and she can’t afford Biden to carry the state by quite as much as in 2020, though.

Presidential turnout favors Biden in VA-02, not Trump, and Cao is an overrated candidate.

[S019]

I mean with how bad the current poll numbers are, I'd be surprised if Republicans didn't win it, but maybe things will change in 11 months.

[The Mikado]

Lean R but no more than Lean. This is a seat Dems get back if they have a better year than it currently looks like they're going to have, but if the race is basically even nationally (less than two points either direction of tied PV, basically) the GOP holds this.