Most vulnerable Republican-held seat in the general?

[Roll Roons]

All of these Republicans won by less than 5 points in 2022, are in a Biden district or both.

I'm assuming no redraw in NY until the court actually rules on it. I'm also not including NY-03 pending the special.

[xavier110]

I really think it’s the end of Schweikert in AZ-01. That Jevin Hodge, of all people, could make it a sub-one point race in 2022 means he’s deader than dead in 2024. The district demographics are literal kryptonite for GOP, especially when they’re on track to re-nominate Donald Trump and Kari Lake to lead the ticket. Presidential turnout will mean even more non-white and youth participation.

Schweikert is an honest to god witch if he manages to sneak by a few votes again in 2024. The Dems are going to have the kitchen sink to throw at him: his abortion stance when it’ll be on the ballot (and when the district is probably 60%+ pro choice), the MAGA kookiness, his having been a backbencher leech swamp monster in congress for 20 years, the ethical lapses, etc…

Ciscomani at least is a much better candidate and likely to face his former opponent again, so he’s got a playbook to deploy. He also outran the statewide Ds in the district more than Schweikert did.

[Schiff for Senate]

Looking through this list, I'm thinking DeRemer or D'Esposito. Probably D'Esposito's if I had to choose, only because he and DeRemer have quite similar circumstances, but his seat voted some 5 or 6 points to the left of hers in 2020 (otoh, he won by 4 points last year and DeRemer only won by 2).

[Progressive Pessimist]

OR-5.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I see no way Don Bacon survives next year.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I see no way Don Bacon survives next year.

If only you knew how bad things really were here...

[Xing]

While it’s possible D’Esposito holds on if his opponent is terrible or NY really does swing a lot to the right (he is an underdog), I think DeRemer is pretty much done, barring extremely favorable circumstances.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

James is gone

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I think D’Esposito actually has a decent chance given the Republican swing in Long Island. I’d be more skeptical about Lawler in the Hudson Valley that acts more like the usual left-trending suburb.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I really think it’s the end of Schweikert in AZ-01. That Jevin Hodge, of all people, could make it a sub-one point race in 2022 means he’s deader than dead in 2024. The district demographics are literal kryptonite for GOP, especially when they’re on track to re-nominate Donald Trump and Kari Lake to lead the ticket. Presidential turnout will mean even more non-white and youth participation.

Schweikert is an honest to god witch if he manages to sneak by a few votes again in 2024. The Dems are going to have the kitchen sink to throw at him: his abortion stance when it’ll be on the ballot (and when the district is probably 60%+ pro choice), the MAGA kookiness, his having been a backbencher leech swamp monster in congress for 20 years, the ethical lapses, etc…

Ciscomani at least is a much better candidate and likely to face his former opponent again, so he’s got a playbook to deploy. He also outran the statewide Ds in the district more than Schweikert did.

I think I could share some perspective here as well. I am not from AZ-01, but from the neighboring Biggs AZ-05. The reason why Schweikert has lasted so long in that seat is because he was originallly elected in 2010 and is the longest serving member from AZ's congressional delegation (along with Gosar). This allowed him to build 6 years of a brand before Trump came along, and gain popularity during the early mid-2010s (which was arguably the peak of the AZ GOP).

That district is the most affluent in Arizona, north Phoenix/Scottsdale and has the wealthy Biltmore and Arcadia areas, and wealthy suburbs like Paradise Valley and communities like Fountain Hills. This is the heart of "country club" McCain anti-Trump movement. However, unlike places like VA-10, a lot of these suburbanites don't neccesarily see David Schweikert as equal to Donald Trump since they voted for him 7 times now. (Schweikert had a complicated relationship with McCain its worth taking a read about the redistricting chaos of 2012). There is a large amount of Sinema/Biden/Kelly/Hobbs voters who casted their ballot for Schweikert because they view him as generic R instead of "MAGA" like Gosar or Biggs.

He will be in a tough race for sure, but I don't think he will be DOA unless Trump absolutely gets slaughtered in Arizona (losing by over 5 points). It was a Biden+1.5 seat in 2020 under these new lines, that isn't too steep of a hill for him to climb. After all, we are seeing Rs win Biden +2, +6, +12 in the LA suburbs (although certainly those candidates are much higher quality than Schweikert). 

I expect AZ_01 to be one of the most expensive races this cycle, because Dems will view the seat as flippable and Rs know it is in complete danger (whereas in 2022 both sides expected Schweikert to win with ease so there wasn't much spending). Right now, I would say its Tilt R but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it flips.

[Roll Roons]

I think D’Esposito actually has a decent chance given the Republican swing in Long Island. I’d be more skeptical about Lawler in the Hudson Valley that acts more like the usual left-trending suburb.

Even Lawler at least has the Orthodox Jewish communities in Rockland County, some of whom supported Maloney last time but could switch, and he's done a lot to distance himself from the MAGA types. My hot take is that Williams is actually the most vulnerable of the NY Republicans.

[Zenobiyl]

Probably either D'Esposito or Valadao

[Red Wall]

Actually Bacon. He looks like the least vulnerable but his seat could actually vote for Biden even in case of a Trump PV win

[MT Treasurer]

I see no way Don Bacon survives next year.

If only you knew how bad things really were here...

Partisan Don Bacon thinks bringing home the bacon is enough to fool Nebraskans into reelecting him. As a cornhusker, he should know best that Nebraskans will only settle for bipartisan bacon, and that’s why he will lose next year.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Brandon Williams

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Most of them are Lean R or stronger with the following exceptions:
AZ-01 -Covered this in above post
CA-13 -On paper, this should be D-leaning but again the hispanic turnout in the central valley is absolutely abysmal and Duarte will probably win (albeit narrowly).
CA-22 -Valadao has been an incumbent for a while and seems to have decent popularity. The turnout there is also abysmal for the Dems in the SH Valley. He is still incredibly vulnerable and arguably the most likely CA R to lose imo.
NE-02 -Its entirely possible this is the year Bacon goes down, but due to redistricting and his moderate stances he will probably prevail one last time if Trump wins this year. A blue wave year in 2026 will wash him out of congress.
NY-04 -Assuming no redistricting, this is one of the hardest races to predict. D’Esposito is a good candidate, but Biden+15 is probably just too much to overcome in a presidential year.
NY-17-Lawler is taking stances to appeal to the Orthodox Jewish community, but again it might not be enough to survive a dedicated Dem effort to defeat him.
NY-22-This Syracuse seat has been the white whale of Clinton-R 2016 districts. It's pretty much the perfect ripe oppurtunity in the Dobbs era (college-educated white small Northern city) and Williams is having some political turbulence right now.
OR-05-I think Chavez-DeRemer could absolutely prevail if the district stays at Biden+9/+10 levels. If it swings blue even more then she's pretty much done.

Looking at that list I would say NY-04, NY-17, and OR-05 are the most vulnerable, and NY-04 probably being the most vulnerable out of all of them.

[Smash255]

NY-04, maybe wishful thinking on my part, but not completely sold yet on the Republican trend on Long Island.  Think more to do with specific circumstances and poor turnout dynamics that likely won't repeat itself in a Presidential year.   With that said, I do think some GOP trend is possible, but I still doubt Trump gets closer than within 10 points in the district, and despite being a strong candidate that is likely too much for D'Esposito to overcome.