When does PA-10 flip?

[Tekken_Guy]

When will PA-10, Scott Perry's seat, flip?

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Let's see, thats the one with the Harrisburg region, and this region is very attractive to live in, it's a nice area of the state and it's one that I expect will be increasing in population.  Under the current way it's drawn, this could be a pickup opportunity for Democrats if they have a great candidate.  If Trump is President in 2026, I can see with good recruitment of a candidate, it may flip then.

[wbrocks67]

The thing with PA-10 is that Dems really need to not only field a great candidate, but also put money behind them too. I would love to say 2024, but idk. Perry has lasted way longer than he has had any right to.

[Roll Roons]

The thing with PA-10 is that Dems really need to not only field a great candidate, but also put money behind them too. I would love to say 2024, but idk. Perry has lasted way longer than he has had any right to.

That happened in 2020, and Perry still outperformed Trump. This district is winnable for Democrats on paper, but somehow they just haven't been able to crack the code.

[Mr.Phips]

The thing with PA-10 is that Dems really need to not only field a great candidate, but also put money behind them too. I would love to say 2024, but idk. Perry has lasted way longer than he has had any right to.

That happened in 2020, and Perry still outperformed Trump. This district is winnable for Democrats on paper, but somehow they just haven't been able to crack the code.

The fact that the Dems had basically no ground game while Republicans did explains a good part of the 2020 result.

[patzer]

Republicans only held it by 7.5% in a red year when Democrats were entirely ignoring it. Good chance it flips next year.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Republicans only held it by 7.5% in a red year when Democrats were entirely ignoring it. Good chance it flips next year.

It wasn't a red year in Pennsylvania. Arguably the opposite acutally.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Republicans only held it by 7.5% in a red year when Democrats were entirely ignoring it. Good chance it flips next year.

Dem turnout was better than Rep turnout last year in Pennsylvania.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The thing with PA-10 is that Dems really need to not only field a great candidate, but also put money behind them too. I would love to say 2024, but idk. Perry has lasted way longer than he has had any right to.

That happened in 2020, and Perry still outperformed Trump. This district is winnable for Democrats on paper, but somehow they just haven't been able to crack the code.

Right candidate, wrong year.  In hindsight, DePasquale likely would’ve won in 2018 and might very well have done so in 2022 (less certain, would’ve been real close either way).  2020 was a really good year for House Republicans in general.  I agree with what others in this thread have said that this district should regularly be in play, but that Democrats need A) at least a truly neutral or perhaps even mildly Democratic leaning year, B) a really strong (perhaps even A-list) recruit, and C) a strong GOTV operation/local ground game.  

While it remains to be seen whether A and C will be present in 2024, it does not appear that either of the candidates are strong enough to unseat Perry.  Daniels can probably make Republicans waste some money and keep things respectably close, but I don’t think she can go the distance.  

I think Perry probably doesn’t make it to the next redistricting (if only b/c I expect we’ll have at least one mildly Democratic cycle between now and then) and the seat is clearly on the DCCC’s radar as the sort  that is always at least worth a shot, but I don’t think 2024 is going to be the year Perry goes down and we may have to wait quite a while before he finally gets booted out of Congress.  

[wbrocks67]

Republicans only held it by 7.5% in a red year when Democrats were entirely ignoring it. Good chance it flips next year.

By raw numbers, it was, but not by turnout %.

Rep turnout was about 68%, while Dem turnout was 61%.