Which State has the largest swing in 2024?

[SaneDemocrat]

The swing can be either direction

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hot take, but Utah

[MT Treasurer]

UT (only if Trump wins the nom), NY, and CA are the Top Three contenders for me.

[John Dule]

Since the candidates likely aren't changing, would it be reasonable to guess that the state with the biggest swing will be the state that has changed the most demographically over the intervening four years?

[Dave Hedgehog]

Florida lurching right in the next election feels practically assured right now, and I can easily see Colorado moving left again by a not-dissimilar amount. Kansas I don’t think will move much at all (I may have been inclined to think otherwise had Kelly won by a greater margin or even just 50+% of the overall vote like Evers did), and New York I think will shift a little right, but nowhere near enough to make it competitive.

Still not sure where all this huge swing potential for Utah is being seen. Despite Trump clearly being a poor fit for the state, he managed a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 - one of only seven states where he did improve on the R’s victory/defeat margin. The state is still full of rigid religious/social conservatives who regardless of anything, are going to be holding their noses and voting for a bad R over any D.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Florida lurching right in the next election feels practically assured right now, and I can easily see Colorado moving left again by a not-dissimilar amount. Kansas I don’t think will move much at all (I may have been inclined to think otherwise had Kelly won by a greater margin or even just 50+% of the overall vote like Evers did), and New York I think will shift a little right, but nowhere near enough to make it competitive.

Still not sure where all this huge swing potential for Utah is being seen. Despite Trump clearly being a poor fit for the state, he managed a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 - one of only seven states where he did improve on the R’s victory/defeat margin. The state is still full of rigid religious/social conservatives who regardless of anything, are going to be holding their noses and voting for a bad R over any D.

Mike Lee's (who is a pretty generic R) margin proved that Republican's floor in Utah is lower than people think.
Trump ran a generic R campaign in 2020 and Utah is shifting left fast. The only reason Utah swung right in 2020 was because McMullin wasn't on the ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They just said whichever state has a big abortion on it red or blue it goes D that goes for KS, AK, OH, MI, AZ, FL

So, yes, it will be a Filibuster proof Trifecta come 24

[seskoog]

My guess is Alaska or Utah. I think there will be larger swings in urban/suburban areas in red states as opposed to blue states (where cities and suburbs are bluer than they are on average nationwide)

[Radicalneo]

Utah

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL it went 16 pts to DeSantis and Rubio and Scott leads 45)41 that's the biggest swing with DeSantis failure

[Alben Barkley]

Kansas voted to the left of Michigan on abortion. I won't be surprised if we see a massive swing there.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Maine (trends D)

[S019]

Kansas voted to the left of Michigan on abortion. I won't be surprised if we see a massive swing there.

This is a bit misleading, Kansas defeated a measure to pave the way for a ban by overriding the Supreme Court, legislative action can still occur there, while Michigan voted for codifying abortion rights. The defeat of the Kansas measure does not mean abortion is protected, it just means that abortion is not banned.

[Alben Barkley]

Kansas voted to the left of Michigan on abortion. I won't be surprised if we see a massive swing there.

This is a bit misleading, Kansas defeated a measure to pave the way for a ban by overriding the Supreme Court, legislative action can still occur there, while Michigan voted for codifying abortion rights. The defeat of the Kansas measure does not mean abortion is protected, it just means that abortion is not banned.

While technically true, I think in both states the vote was essentially simplified to "X means pro-life, Y means pro-choice," and if you look at it from that perspective, Kansas (slightly) won for the pro-choice side.

Yes you can argue the nuances, but are there really a significant number of Kansans who voted to NOT outlaw abortion who also would vote to NOT protect abortion rights? I kinda doubt it.

[S019]

Kansas voted to the left of Michigan on abortion. I won't be surprised if we see a massive swing there.

This is a bit misleading, Kansas defeated a measure to pave the way for a ban by overriding the Supreme Court, legislative action can still occur there, while Michigan voted for codifying abortion rights. The defeat of the Kansas measure does not mean abortion is protected, it just means that abortion is not banned.

While technically true, I think in both states the vote was essentially simplified to "X means pro-life, Y means pro-choice," and if you look at it from that perspective, Kansas (slightly) won for the pro-choice side.

Yes you can argue the nuances, but are there really a significant number of Kansans who voted to NOT outlaw abortion who also would vote to NOT protect abortion rights? I kinda doubt it.

Well under current KS law you can pass a 15 or 20 week ban which could stand before the state Supreme Court. A measure to protect abortion rights would get attacked as "abortion on demand" and would likely fail in a deep red state like Kansas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL which won't swing 16 pts to right Scott is only up for and yes can Lose

[Mr. Smith]

Florida lurching right in the next election feels practically assured right now, and I can easily see Colorado moving left again by a not-dissimilar amount. Kansas I don’t think will move much at all (I may have been inclined to think otherwise had Kelly won by a greater margin or even just 50+% of the overall vote like Evers did), and New York I think will shift a little right, but nowhere near enough to make it competitive.

Still not sure where all this huge swing potential for Utah is being seen. Despite Trump clearly being a poor fit for the state, he managed a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 - one of only seven states where he did improve on the R’s victory/defeat margin. The state is still full of rigid religious/social conservatives who regardless of anything, are going to be holding their noses and voting for a bad R over any D.

Mike Lee's (who is a pretty generic R) margin proved that Republican's floor in Utah is lower than people think.
Trump ran a generic R campaign in 2020 and Utah is shifting left fast. The only reason Utah swung right in 2020 was because McMullin wasn't on the ballot.

And Biden still increased his percentage by 7 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida by far.

[Cyrusman]

Florida lurching right in the next election feels practically assured right now, and I can easily see Colorado moving left again by a not-dissimilar amount. Kansas I don’t think will move much at all (I may have been inclined to think otherwise had Kelly won by a greater margin or even just 50+% of the overall vote like Evers did), and New York I think will shift a little right, but nowhere near enough to make it competitive.

Still not sure where all this huge swing potential for Utah is being seen. Despite Trump clearly being a poor fit for the state, he managed a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 - one of only seven states where he did improve on the R’s victory/defeat margin. The state is still full of rigid religious/social conservatives who regardless of anything, are going to be holding their noses and voting for a bad R over any D.

Mike Lee's (who is a pretty generic R) margin proved that Republican's floor in Utah is lower than people think.
Trump ran a generic R campaign in 2020 and Utah is shifting left fast. The only reason Utah swung right in 2020 was because McMullin wasn't on the ballot.

McMullin won't be on the ballot in 2024 either, it'll be Biden. Even though McMullin basically ran as a D, having that "independent " label makes a difference.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Florida lurching right in the next election feels practically assured right now, and I can easily see Colorado moving left again by a not-dissimilar amount. Kansas I don’t think will move much at all (I may have been inclined to think otherwise had Kelly won by a greater margin or even just 50+% of the overall vote like Evers did), and New York I think will shift a little right, but nowhere near enough to make it competitive.

Still not sure where all this huge swing potential for Utah is being seen. Despite Trump clearly being a poor fit for the state, he managed a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 - one of only seven states where he did improve on the R’s victory/defeat margin. The state is still full of rigid religious/social conservatives who regardless of anything, are going to be holding their noses and voting for a bad R over any D.

Mike Lee's (who is a pretty generic R) margin proved that Republican's floor in Utah is lower than people think.
Trump ran a generic R campaign in 2020 and Utah is shifting left fast. The only reason Utah swung right in 2020 was because McMullin wasn't on the ballot.

McMullin won't be on the ballot in 2024 either, it'll be Biden. Even though McMullin basically ran as a D, having that "independent " label makes a difference.

However Mike Lee is just a libertarian-leaning generic R while Trump is... Trump. There will be a lot of Lee-Biden voters.

[Radicalneo]

Evenly diveded

[Aurelius2]

Kansas voted to the left of Michigan on abortion. I won't be surprised if we see a massive swing there.

This is a bit misleading, Kansas defeated a measure to pave the way for a ban by overriding the Supreme Court, legislative action can still occur there, while Michigan voted for codifying abortion rights. The defeat of the Kansas measure does not mean abortion is protected, it just means that abortion is not banned.

While technically true, I think in both states the vote was essentially simplified to "X means pro-life, Y means pro-choice," and if you look at it from that perspective, Kansas (slightly) won for the pro-choice side.

Yes you can argue the nuances, but are there really a significant number of Kansans who voted to NOT outlaw abortion who also would vote to NOT protect abortion rights? I kinda doubt it.

There is definitely a set of voters who simply default to voting NO on all ballot measures. We see this in California quite strongly, where voters who vote for Democrats also tend to vote against Democratic-backed proposals about issues that the candidates often made focal points in their campaigns.

[Alben Barkley]

Kansas voted to the left of Michigan on abortion. I won't be surprised if we see a massive swing there.

This is a bit misleading, Kansas defeated a measure to pave the way for a ban by overriding the Supreme Court, legislative action can still occur there, while Michigan voted for codifying abortion rights. The defeat of the Kansas measure does not mean abortion is protected, it just means that abortion is not banned.

While technically true, I think in both states the vote was essentially simplified to "X means pro-life, Y means pro-choice," and if you look at it from that perspective, Kansas (slightly) won for the pro-choice side.

Yes you can argue the nuances, but are there really a significant number of Kansans who voted to NOT outlaw abortion who also would vote to NOT protect abortion rights? I kinda doubt it.

There is definitely a set of voters who simply default to voting NO on all ballot measures. We see this in California quite strongly, where voters who vote for Democrats also tend to vote against Democratic-backed proposals about issues that the candidates often made focal points in their campaigns.

Like what? Prop 8? I think in that case, you simply had a lot of Obama voters in urban areas who weren't quite ready to accept gay marriage.

In any case, for Michigan, the vote was "Yes" for abortion rights and it still easily won.

Plus I simply don't buy that a lot of people in Kansas turned up to vote for an off-month election where this was pretty much the only issue of interest on the ballot, without knowing exactly what they were voting for and why. It's different when you show up to vote for president and just check boxes next to everything else. It's another matter entirely when you go out of your way to vote on this kind of referendum specifically.

I think it's clear, strong evidence that there is a MASSIVE backlash to the atrocity that was Dobbs in this country, and the midterms only poured fuel on that fire. The GOP better pray they can find some way to avoid it next year, or turn out the lights, the party's over.