Is Anthony D’Esposito the reverse Max Rose?

[Tekken_Guy]

Anthony D’Esposito and Max Rose both won very unfavorable districts in Downstate NY in a midterm cycle on strong gubernatorial coattails, terrible turnout for the party who usually wins the district, and the race completely going under the radar, meaning little spending on either side.

Rose lost re-election by a hefty margin in 2020 due to presidential turnout reverting the district to its traditional partisanship. Is D’Esposito in for the same fate.

[Roll Roons]

I don't know, but can I just ask why you seem to talk about Max Rose so much?

[NewYorkExpress]

Unless the Republican Vote in Nassau County completely collapses, or D'Esposito is caught in major scandal, it's likely he wins reelection at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unless the Republican Vote in Nassau County completely collapses, or D'Esposito is caught in major scandal, it's likely he wins reelection at this point.

Disagree. He didn't actually do that well with crossover support in 2022, the district being winnable was just a factor of non-white turnout being terrible. His district is fairly racially polarized, and I think in a Pres year it'd be hard for him to win re-election if Dems put an ounce of effort into the race.

Then again, NY-Dems have dropped the ball before, so we'll see.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump improved by 10 points in Long Island, and D'Esposito outperformed Trump by another 10. Even if he is redistricted, it isn't clear he's DOA.