Will Texas start trending Republican again?

[Mr. Smith]

Probably. I highly doubt the stagnation of Houston [pretty much the main hold-up] is somehow going to override the other urban and suburban areas collectively going D

Wouldn’t that mean you think TX will continue trending D?

As for this question, I don’t see people “voting with their bodies” so to speak. No one moves based on abortion access. If they had the resources to do so, they’d just fly out of state if they needed one.

Texas’ trends for the most part largely still favor Democrats, like you said. Houston is the only holdup, and even there I think Democrats have the long-term upper hand. These growing metro areas aren’t just going to suddenly get more Republican, especially as the GOP becomes defined among the Millennial/Gen Z voters as a Trump Cult, which it clearly has become. Even when he dies, that Party strain of the voters nominating freak shows isn’t going to just go away. It’s a feature that the extremist is now favored in a given primary. It’s no longer isolated occurrences.

D'oh! I knew there was something I forgot to add to that.

I'm anticipating a sort of NC-style slowdown that means the state will likely swing D, but increasingly less than the nation...because of Houston. And a trend is just a swing relative to the nation. There are just too many canceling out factors at the moment.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There's still the theory out there that the RGV just favors incumbent presidents like Hawaii and that explains Trump doing so much better there in 2020 compared to 2016.   It also helps explain Bush doing so well with Hispanics in 2004, at least partially.  

Obama had pretty big D trends in the RGV in 2012 compared to 2008 too, being an incumbent president.

Something I don't understand about this argument – I feel like it would imply that the RGV would be relatively pro-Abbot, the incumbent governor, but he did worse than Trump in many parts of the RGV.

It seems to be unique to the Presidential elections, similar to Hawaii.  I don't understand it either honestly, but it might be that areas near the geographic edges of the country tend to have this tendency to become fond of the incumbent President for some reason, maybe relating to border issues or foreign relations?  Don't know, maybe no one does.

On the other hand, Alaska doesn't have anything at all like this regarding incumbent presidents, so maybe it's something else.

What I've read is that Hispanics in general, not just in RGV, are trending towards the incumbent in presidential elections.

[GALeftist]

There's still the theory out there that the RGV just favors incumbent presidents like Hawaii and that explains Trump doing so much better there in 2020 compared to 2016.   It also helps explain Bush doing so well with Hispanics in 2004, at least partially. 

Obama had pretty big D trends in the RGV in 2012 compared to 2008 too, being an incumbent president.

Something I don't understand about this argument – I feel like it would imply that the RGV would be relatively pro-Abbot, the incumbent governor, but he did worse than Trump in many parts of the RGV.

Areas almost always flip for president first and then it gradually filters downballot.  There's still a bunch of R's in Biden+15 legislative seats in VA, for example.

Anyway, the RGV isn't hugely relevant statewide with the I-35 trend, except that it buys R's a few more election cycles to try to replicate what what they accomplished in Miami in Houston.  Whether they can do that or not will be the decisive factor.  So far, Harris swung to D+10ish and then abruptly stabilized. 

That was kind of my point. I think the RGV is most likely just shifting right. The degree to which it's doing that is arguable – I think it's entirely possible we'll see some reversion to the mean in 2024 – but I think "Hispanics are pro-incumbent" is kind of a lazy hand-wave in the RGV specifically.

The RGV trends catch people's eye, and they help ameliorate the TXGOP's trash geography, but they do very little statewide. The RGV proper cast a whopping 360k votes in 2020. That's less than Fort Bend County, whose trends have gotten a tiny fraction of the coverage of the RGV. Even if you expand it to include Laredo and El Paso, it's still just not vote rich enough to be that meaningful statewide compared to the Triangle.

The other thing to mention is that you're right that Harris County is crucial, but merely maintaining its stagnation is necessary but not sufficient for the TXGOP, because even with its stagnation in 2020 Texas clearly still trended left. In order to keep the state long term they're going to have to do some combination of beginning actual rightward Houston trends and/or stopping the bleeding in the other big metro areas, particularly DFW, irrespective of what the RGV does or doesn't do. Both seem unlikely to me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably. I highly doubt the stagnation of Houston [pretty much the main hold-up] is somehow going to override the other urban and suburban areas collectively going D

Wouldn’t that mean you think TX will continue trending D?

As for this question, I don’t see people “voting with their bodies” so to speak. No one moves based on abortion access. If they had the resources to do so, they’d just fly out of state if they needed one.

Texas’ trends for the most part largely still favor Democrats, like you said. Houston is the only holdup, and even there I think Democrats have the long-term upper hand. These growing metro areas aren’t just going to suddenly get more Republican, especially as the GOP becomes defined among the Millennial/Gen Z voters as a Trump Cult, which it clearly has become. Even when he dies, that Party strain of the voters nominating freak shows isn’t going to just go away. It’s a feature that the extremist is now favored in a given primary. It’s no longer isolated occurrences.

D'oh! I knew there was something I forgot to add to that.

I'm anticipating a sort of NC-style slowdown that means the state will likely swing D, but increasingly less than the nation...because of Houston. And a trend is just a swing relative to the nation. There are just too many canceling out factors at the moment.

I'm not fully convinced greater Houston is going to start shifting right or even stagnate anytime soon. I think what people often forget is that in 2020, Harris County and the ring of suburban/exurban counties around it all still swung left, and in 2016 HRC's leftward swing out of Houston was insane; post-2016 most thought Houston had the most favorable shifts to Ds of the major TX metros.

I think it's def possible heavily minority parts of Houston swing right again, but it's worth noting that in 2020 even as these heavily Hispanic and Black precincts swung pretty hard right, they still netted Biden more votes than HRC in 2016 due to turnout increase. In general, urban Hispanic and Black communities in Dallas and Houston are some of the lowest turnout communities in the country, so on net, I think Ds still have more to gain from then in turnout netting raw votes than Rs have to gain from narrowing the margin

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

[Spectator]

The fact that Beto performed about as well as Biden did last year in Bexar County alone is cause for great concern among TX GOP. Bexar County swinging left is more than enough to offset Republican gains in the rest of South Texas.

[Skill and Chance]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.   

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.   

I genuinely wonder about this. Are there still ancesteral Ds in these communities flipping to Rs? Are rural TX Ds terribly unreliable? Are rural TX Ds dying/moving out without replacment?

I think one factor could be a lot of the rural D base in TX, even in largely deep red and mostly white areas are lower propensity Hispanics and Blacks who are unreliable. The swings that happened in rural TX in 2022 could be for a simillar reason for the rightwards swing of the black-belt.

[Skill and Chance]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.   

I genuinely wonder about this. Are there still ancesteral Ds in these communities flipping to Rs? Are rural TX Ds terribly unreliable? Are rural TX Ds dying/moving out without replacment?

I think it's this.  Several Panhandle counties that basically never voted R until 2000 are now ~80% Trump and ~90% Abbott.

FWIW if the rural vote gets this lopsided throughout the South, it takes NC back off the map and VA gets interesting again, though I expect Dems would still win narrowly there most of the time.  GA probably keeps moving left though, because the rural white vote is already near unanimous there.  Something to think about. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.   

I genuinely wonder about this. Are there still ancesteral Ds in these communities flipping to Rs? Are rural TX Ds terribly unreliable? Are rural TX Ds dying/moving out without replacment?

I think it's this.  Several Panhandle counties that basically never voted R until 2000 are now ~80% Trump and ~90% Abbott.

FWIW if the rural vote gets this lopsided throughout the South, it takes NC back off the map and VA gets interesting again, though I expect Dems would still win narrowly there most of the time.  GA probably keeps moving left though, because the rural white vote is already near unanimous there.  Something to think about. 

I think VA should generally be fine for Ds long term as the rural Appalachian parts are shrinking and are generally not a very large share of the state's population.

It would be absolutely catastrophic for NC Ds though; I mean just the current rightwards shifts in the rural parts of the state have been able to offset Charlotte and Raleigh metros for over a decade now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.  

I genuinely wonder about this. Are there still ancesteral Ds in these communities flipping to Rs? Are rural TX Ds terribly unreliable? Are rural TX Ds dying/moving out without replacment?

I think it's this.  Several Panhandle counties that basically never voted R until 2000 are now ~80% Trump and ~90% Abbott.

FWIW if the rural vote gets this lopsided throughout the South, it takes NC back off the map and VA gets interesting again, though I expect Dems would still win narrowly there most of the time.  GA probably keeps moving left though, because the rural white vote is already near unanimous there.  Something to think about.  

That's not going to happen in North Carolina because it has a significant rural black population. Republicans are already close to maxed out in the rurals there.

[Death of a Salesman]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.   

I genuinely wonder about this. Are there still ancesteral Ds in these communities flipping to Rs? Are rural TX Ds terribly unreliable? Are rural TX Ds dying/moving out without replacment?

I think it's this.  Several Panhandle counties that basically never voted R until 2000 are now ~80% Trump and ~90% Abbott.

FWIW if the rural vote gets this lopsided throughout the South, it takes NC back off the map and VA gets interesting again, though I expect Dems would still win narrowly there most of the time.  GA probably keeps moving left though, because the rural white vote is already near unanimous there.  Something to think about. 

That's not going to happen in North Carolina because there's a significant rural black population there. Republicans are already close to maxed out in the rurals there.

Duplin County, NC: Population density 59.7/sq mi, Trump won the white vote 83.9-15.4.
Wood County, TX: Population density 64/sq mi, Trump won the white vote 89.1-10.
Trump won 83.6-15.4, Abbott won 86.3-12.8. A 14% swing in rural NC would move the state off the map.

[Sol]

It is absolutely true that rural North Carolina whites are less Republican than Republicans in Texas; this is very much part of a general pattern among white voters, where those further south tend to be more Republican. Rural white voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina etc., tend to be a bit more Dem than those in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, etc.

This makes intuitive sense, right -- these states are closer to the north, and thus likely have a bit more cultural influence from up there, and so that probably gives Democrats a bit of a bump among rural white voters.

I'm sure Democrats have a little bit more room to fall everywhere in the rural south, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume that rural North Carolina will end up as Republican as rural Texas -- the floor is a little higher. The swings in 2020 were already a bit more modest than in 2016, and probably depended partly on Republicans winning over more Black voters.

[Skill and Chance]

It is absolutely true that rural North Carolina whites are less Republican than Republicans in Texas; this is very much part of a general pattern among white voters, where those further south tend to be more Republican. Rural white voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina etc., tend to be a bit more Dem than those in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, etc.

This makes intuitive sense, right -- these states are closer to the north, and thus likely have a bit more cultural influence from up there, and so that probably gives Democrats a bit of a bump among rural white voters.

I'm sure Democrats have a little bit more room to fall everywhere in the rural south, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume that rural North Carolina will end up as Republican as rural Texas -- the floor is a little higher. The swings in 2020 were already a bit more modest than in 2016, and probably depended partly on Republicans winning over more Black voters.

Look at what Youngkin did in rural VA, though.  Averaging like 85% in the Panhandle with practically everything west of Charlottesville over 70% and over 60% in some rural eastern counties that voted for Obama.  McAuliffe matched Hillary 2016 in NOVA and ran ahead of her in Richmond but still lost the state.  Yes, matching Biden in the cities would still have won it for McAuliffe even with that rural vote and that's probably a viable strategy, but it would still have been pretty close... really close if you assume VA Beach going Dem in 2020 and 2017 was the exception rather than the rule. 

And where you don't have NOVA or Atlanta to lean on, that's basically lights out for Southern Dems.  There's no particular reason rural Southern white voters can't end up as R as black voters are D.  When you antagonize people for years, they notice. 

[Mr.Phips]

It is absolutely true that rural North Carolina whites are less Republican than Republicans in Texas; this is very much part of a general pattern among white voters, where those further south tend to be more Republican. Rural white voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina etc., tend to be a bit more Dem than those in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, etc.

This makes intuitive sense, right -- these states are closer to the north, and thus likely have a bit more cultural influence from up there, and so that probably gives Democrats a bit of a bump among rural white voters.

I'm sure Democrats have a little bit more room to fall everywhere in the rural south, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume that rural North Carolina will end up as Republican as rural Texas -- the floor is a little higher. The swings in 2020 were already a bit more modest than in 2016, and probably depended partly on Republicans winning over more Black voters.

Look at what Youngkin did in rural VA, though.  Averaging like 85% in the Panhandle with practically everything west of Charlottesville over 70% and over 60% in some rural eastern counties that voted for Obama.  McAuliffe matched Hillary 2016 in NOVA and ran ahead of her in Richmond but still lost the state.  Yes, matching Biden in the cities would still have won it for McAuliffe even with that rural vote and that's probably a viable strategy, but it would still have been pretty close... really close if you assume VA Beach going Dem in 2020 and 2017 was the exception rather than the rule.  

And where you don't have NOVA or Atlanta to lean on, that's basically lights out for Southern Dems.  There's no particular reason rural Southern white voters can't end up as R as black voters are D.  When you antagonize people for years, they notice.  

VA Beach going Dem likely isn’t an exception at this point.  It even went Dem in 2022, which wasn’t a great Dem year, in House races.  It certainly shouldn’t be more than a three point loss, like in 2016.  McAuliffe just let the margin get out of hand.

[kwabbit]

I think one thing that should really concern the GOP is that even in 2022, Beto ran about even with Biden in most "left-shifting" TX suburbs (generally slightly ahead in Austin, about even in San Antonio, and slightly behind in Dallas and Houston); he suffered the most from being annihilated in rural areas and extremely poor urban turnout. Also Beto almost universally outran himself in suburbs from 2018, despite doing worse statewide. For those who argue that 2020 suburban margins were unique to Trump being bad and/or Biden having specific appeal, the 2022 results literally disprove this.

I think one important thing this also shows though is that turnout dynamics and gains in rural areas can still have a huge impact on the margin outcome in a state like TX. In a Pres cycle, turnout dynamics should be a bit more even, but it's def possible Rs can still squeeze more juice out of rural TX. Long term it physically isn't enough to offset 20+ point left shifts in places like Collin or Williamson counties, but can allow the GOP to hold on for a bit longer.

Overall though, I can't take anyone who says the GOP shouldn't be worried about TX seriously. There are *some* things working in their favor, but on net there's a lot more upside for Ds.

So many rural areas going practically unanimous was shocking.  I thought Abbott would have to carry or at least statistically tie Harris to get that statewide margin.   

I genuinely wonder about this. Are there still ancesteral Ds in these communities flipping to Rs? Are rural TX Ds terribly unreliable? Are rural TX Ds dying/moving out without replacment?

I think it's this.  Several Panhandle counties that basically never voted R until 2000 are now ~80% Trump and ~90% Abbott.

FWIW if the rural vote gets this lopsided throughout the South, it takes NC back off the map and VA gets interesting again, though I expect Dems would still win narrowly there most of the time.  GA probably keeps moving left though, because the rural white vote is already near unanimous there.  Something to think about. 

That's not going to happen in North Carolina because there's a significant rural black population there. Republicans are already close to maxed out in the rurals there.

The rural Black vote is shifting right and becoming disengaged. I’m pretty sure during the Obama years the rural Black vote had better turnout than the rural White vote, although that’s shifting. 2022 in the rural South seemed like it had a turnout dynamic between Black and White voters more typical of the rest of the country.

If the GOP ever achieves real gains with Black voters, it’ll be in a place like rural NC. That’s one thing to watch out for in NC Gov 2024. Black GOP candidates usually only do a few points better with Black voters, but if Robinson can match Budd in rural eastern NC it’s a lot harder for Stein to win.

[kwabbit]

Abbott did pretty poorly in Harris. Did he even have any persuasion gains over Trump or was it all turnout? If Beto only won Harris by 5 points this would be a different calculus. In 2022, besides the rurals, I’d say the TX GOP should be most happy with El Paso and DFW. Harris was meh, Bexar was bad, and Austin was terrible. The RGV was not great either for them.

[Skill and Chance]

It is absolutely true that rural North Carolina whites are less Republican than Republicans in Texas; this is very much part of a general pattern among white voters, where those further south tend to be more Republican. Rural white voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina etc., tend to be a bit more Dem than those in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, etc.

This makes intuitive sense, right -- these states are closer to the north, and thus likely have a bit more cultural influence from up there, and so that probably gives Democrats a bit of a bump among rural white voters.

I'm sure Democrats have a little bit more room to fall everywhere in the rural south, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume that rural North Carolina will end up as Republican as rural Texas -- the floor is a little higher. The swings in 2020 were already a bit more modest than in 2016, and probably depended partly on Republicans winning over more Black voters.

Look at what Youngkin did in rural VA, though.  Averaging like 85% in the Panhandle with practically everything west of Charlottesville over 70% and over 60% in some rural eastern counties that voted for Obama.  McAuliffe matched Hillary 2016 in NOVA and ran ahead of her in Richmond but still lost the state.  Yes, matching Biden in the cities would still have won it for McAuliffe even with that rural vote and that's probably a viable strategy, but it would still have been pretty close... really close if you assume VA Beach going Dem in 2020 and 2017 was the exception rather than the rule.  

And where you don't have NOVA or Atlanta to lean on, that's basically lights out for Southern Dems.  There's no particular reason rural Southern white voters can't end up as R as black voters are D.  When you antagonize people for years, they notice.  

VA Beach going Dem likely isn’t an exception at this point.  It even went Dem in 2022, which wasn’t a great Dem year, in House races.  It certainly shouldn’t be more than a three point loss, like in 2016.  McAuliffe just let the margin get out of hand.

Then D's should still be able to win by 5ish statewide even if generic R gets Youngkin's rural vote going forward.  The total 2022 House vote in VA I believe was D by 3%, but that was with a really strong GOP performance in VA-10 (almost matching Youngkin #'s in a federal race).   

[Mr.Phips]

It is absolutely true that rural North Carolina whites are less Republican than Republicans in Texas; this is very much part of a general pattern among white voters, where those further south tend to be more Republican. Rural white voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina etc., tend to be a bit more Dem than those in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, etc.

This makes intuitive sense, right -- these states are closer to the north, and thus likely have a bit more cultural influence from up there, and so that probably gives Democrats a bit of a bump among rural white voters.

I'm sure Democrats have a little bit more room to fall everywhere in the rural south, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume that rural North Carolina will end up as Republican as rural Texas -- the floor is a little higher. The swings in 2020 were already a bit more modest than in 2016, and probably depended partly on Republicans winning over more Black voters.

Look at what Youngkin did in rural VA, though.  Averaging like 85% in the Panhandle with practically everything west of Charlottesville over 70% and over 60% in some rural eastern counties that voted for Obama.  McAuliffe matched Hillary 2016 in NOVA and ran ahead of her in Richmond but still lost the state.  Yes, matching Biden in the cities would still have won it for McAuliffe even with that rural vote and that's probably a viable strategy, but it would still have been pretty close... really close if you assume VA Beach going Dem in 2020 and 2017 was the exception rather than the rule.  

And where you don't have NOVA or Atlanta to lean on, that's basically lights out for Southern Dems.  There's no particular reason rural Southern white voters can't end up as R as black voters are D.  When you antagonize people for years, they notice.  

VA Beach going Dem likely isn’t an exception at this point.  It even went Dem in 2022, which wasn’t a great Dem year, in House races.  It certainly shouldn’t be more than a three point loss, like in 2016.  McAuliffe just let the margin get out of hand.

Then D's should still be able to win by 5ish statewide even if generic R gets Youngkin's rural vote going forward.  The total 2022 House vote in VA I believe was D by 3%, but that was with a really strong GOP performance in VA-10 (almost matching Youngkin #'s in a federal race).   

And McAuliffe’s pathetic margin in that district and the margin he lost VA-02 by is what cost him the race in 2021.  He couldn’t even match Hillary in PWC, Loudon, and Fairfax.