If DeSantis (or someone else) wins the primary, do you think Trump will launch an independent bid?

[Ferguson97]

Title

[World Mapping]

Maybe.

One thing about DJT is that he likes to win. There's a chance that he may see the writing on the wall, that he can't win, and drop out, but we'll see. I'm but a fallible human being and may either be right or wrong.

[Coldstream]

I’m not sure he’d want to put in the effort to being a third party candidate for no real reason behind spite, when all it would do is ensure he finished third with max 15-18% of the vote (and likely less than that).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

He'd have to drop out early. A lot of states have sore loser rules which means he can't run as an indy if he loses the primary. But that doesn't stop him from running a MAGA candidate and holding rallies all over the country during the campaign.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

He'd either endorse DeSantis or do what the poll asks

[Progressive Pessimist]

100%. But even if he doesn't his ire will be focused more on DeSantis than Biden and lead to him trying to undermine DeSantis in any other way possible.

[Mr. Smith]

No. Too much work.

Just bombarding Twitter with anti-RDS screeds is sufficient.

[emailking]

Yes and that Bulwark poll says he'd get like 30% of Republicans.

[emailking]

He'd have to drop out early. A lot of states have sore loser rules which means he can't run as an indy if he loses the primary. But that doesn't stop him from running a MAGA candidate and holding rallies all over the country during the campaign.

Is this just ballot access though? Can he run a write in campaign or is he banned from winning?

[Vosem]

He'd have to drop out early. A lot of states have sore loser rules which means he can't run as an indy if he loses the primary. But that doesn't stop him from running a MAGA candidate and holding rallies all over the country during the campaign.

Is this just ballot access though? Can he run a write in campaign or is he banned from winning?

In a large majority of states it would be too late for this.

To answer Ferguson's question, I doubt it, and counterintuitively it is probably likelier if he loses by a lot, and drops out after the first few contests, rather than if he loses in an Obama/Hillary '08-style squeaker.

[emailking]

He'd have to drop out early. A lot of states have sore loser rules which means he can't run as an indy if he loses the primary. But that doesn't stop him from running a MAGA candidate and holding rallies all over the country during the campaign.

Is this just ballot access though? Can he run a write in campaign or is he banned from winning?

In a large majority of states it would be too late for this.

By that do you mean, if he asked people to write in his name and got more write in votes than anyone else got votes, he would not be the winner?

[TodayJunior]

He’ll do whatever he wants to do which is create chaos and suck the oxygen out of the room. Toxic waste.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yes, even if it's just a pro forma bid. Anything else would be acknowledging losing and give up a lot of fundraisinggrifting possibilities.

If Trump loses the nomination, he will:

1) claim it was rigged against him,
2) announce a 3rd party run
3) claim that the GOP cannot win without him
4) make sure #3 is true

He'll go through the motions, but winning will not be the plan. Grifting and ammunition for more self-serving  lies will be the goal. Afterward, he'll spend the rest of his life (and his followers the rest of their lives) saying "If Trump were President, he would have stopped the recession/war/earthquake!"

[MABA 2020]

No. Too much work.

Just bombarding Twitter with anti-RDS screeds is sufficient.

I initially voted yes, but this seems more likely actually. He'll definitely want to undermine the Republican nominee for embarrassing him, and he'll obviously be telling everyone who will listen how the primaries were rigged against him, but running an independent campaign would be too much effort.

[DaleCooper]

It'll be a mix of a write-in campaign and a widespread call to abstain from voting. He'll do what he can to ensure that the Republican nominee loses.

If Trump is alive and has a platform he will sabotage the Republicans in 2024 if he isn't the nominee. If you're in denial about this then you're dumb. The only exception would be if he drops out for unrelated reasons before he loses any states.

[MT Treasurer]

It'll be a mix of a write-in campaign and a widespread call to abstain from voting. He'll do what he can to ensure that the Republican nominee loses.

If Trump is alive and has a platform he will sabotage the Republicans in 2024 if he isn't the nominee. If you're in denial about this then you're dumb. The only exception would be if he drops out for unrelated reasons before he loses any states.

I’m not in denial about that, but I think a lot of people on the left are in (willful) denial about how "well" Trump's attempts at sabotaging a DeSantis victory in the GE would go over with Republican voters in a GE, esp. when they reinforce the perception of him as an emasculated, weak loser only out for himself.

If Democrats think a Trump independent bid/write-in campaign would result in anything close to a "1912 redux," they’re going to be in for an unpleasant surprise.

[DaleCooper]

It'll be a mix of a write-in campaign and a widespread call to abstain from voting. He'll do what he can to ensure that the Republican nominee loses.

If Trump is alive and has a platform he will sabotage the Republicans in 2024 if he isn't the nominee. If you're in denial about this then you're dumb. The only exception would be if he drops out for unrelated reasons before he loses any states.

I’m not in denial about that, but I think a lot of people on the left are in (willful) denial about how "well" Trump's attempts at sabotaging a DeSantis victory in the GE would go over with Republican voters in a GE, esp. when they reinforce the perception of him as an emasculated, weak loser only out for himself.

If Democrats think a Trump independent bid/write-in campaign would result in anything close to a "1912 redux," they’re going to be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Yes, and I said that it's wrong to expect Trump to win more states than DeSantis or win any states at all, but the "redux" we're talking about is a former president throwing the election, which any write-in campaign no matter how pathetic will do. DeSantis loses if he is the candidate and Trump tries to undermine him.

[MT Treasurer]

It'll be a mix of a write-in campaign and a widespread call to abstain from voting. He'll do what he can to ensure that the Republican nominee loses.

If Trump is alive and has a platform he will sabotage the Republicans in 2024 if he isn't the nominee. If you're in denial about this then you're dumb. The only exception would be if he drops out for unrelated reasons before he loses any states.

I’m not in denial about that, but I think a lot of people on the left are in (willful) denial about how "well" Trump's attempts at sabotaging a DeSantis victory in the GE would go over with Republican voters in a GE, esp. when they reinforce the perception of him as an emasculated, weak loser only out for himself.

If Democrats think a Trump independent bid/write-in campaign would result in anything close to a "1912 redux," they’re going to be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Yes, and I said that it's wrong to expect Trump to win more states than DeSantis or win any states at all, but the "redux" we're talking about is a former president throwing the election, which any write-in campaign no matter how pathetic will do. DeSantis loses if he is the candidate and Trump tries to undermine him.

I think it really comes down to two scenarios:

1. DeSantis just buries Trump twice and stuns Democrats & much of the political world by winning in spite of Trump's write-in campaign, thus cementing the end of the Trump era.

2. Trump costs his party another (the fifth?) election in a row, thus continuing the trend of Republicans suffering electorally because of the Trump presidency even when Trump himself is not on the ballot.

I could see either one happening, and I think it’s premature to rule one out. A lot would depend on how close the primary actually was.

[Ferguson97]

It'll be a mix of a write-in campaign and a widespread call to abstain from voting. He'll do what he can to ensure that the Republican nominee loses.

If Trump is alive and has a platform he will sabotage the Republicans in 2024 if he isn't the nominee. If you're in denial about this then you're dumb. The only exception would be if he drops out for unrelated reasons before he loses any states.

I’m not in denial about that, but I think a lot of people on the left are in (willful) denial about how "well" Trump's attempts at sabotaging a DeSantis victory in the GE would go over with Republican voters in a GE, esp. when they reinforce the perception of him as an emasculated, weak loser only out for himself.

If Democrats think a Trump independent bid/write-in campaign would result in anything close to a "1912 redux," they’re going to be in for an unpleasant surprise.

You realize that if an independent Trump wins even 5% of the Republican vote (and polling suggests it would be several magnitudes larger than that), that would be enough for a very comfortable Biden victory, right?

I think you are in complete denial about the current state of the GOP primary electorate.

Trump's base is never going to abandon him. If DeSantis does beat him in the primary, Trump is obviously going to claim that the vote was rigged. They're not going to view him as an emasculated loser. He cannot fail, he can only be failed.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

If by September or October the 30% scenario for Trump vs. a 40% for DeSantis is the prevailing polling picture, and Trump realizes he can't win the nomination; he's likely to drop out, citing personal reasons! The last thing Trump wants to happen if he suddenly comes in 3rd in Iowa or Michigan or South Carolina which would be too embarrassing for him. He'll opt for the kingmaker role and Trump likes to push whatever narrative that makes him look good, so DeSantis is viewed as the only game in town; he start singing DeSantis's praises, and brag because of his support, DeSantis is winning! No one will argue in order to keep Trump sweet! But once and if DeSantis should win the general! Then it will be time for Trump to be told to  off!

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If you're a Republican and you would get upset if Trump did this yet you would not support Trump if he won the nomination, you're a hypocrite.

[Florida Paleoconservative]

If by September or October the 30% scenario for Trump vs. a 40% for DeSantis is the prevailing polling picture, and Trump realizes he can't win the nomination; he's likely to drop out, citing personal reasons! The last thing Trump wants to happen if he suddenly comes in 3rd in Iowa or Michigan or South Carolina which would be too embarrassing for him. He'll opt for the kingmaker role and Trump likes to push whatever narrative that makes him look good, so DeSantis is viewed as the only game in town; he start singing DeSantis's praises, and brag because of his support, DeSantis is winning! No one will argue in order to keep Trump sweet! But once and if DeSantis should win the general! Then it will be time for Trump to be told to  off!

I could honestly see this.