How many of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump will be around in 2023

[Senator Incitatus]

I think just Valadao and probably Meijer.

[Schiff for Senate]

Aside from the 4 who are definitely done, these 6 remain: Rice, Cheney, Newhouse, Herrera-Buetler, Valadao and Meijer.

I'm going to start by guessing that Meijer goes down. The primary won't be easy, since contrary to what Roll Roons and other say, the GOP primary electorate in the Grand Rapids area probably still isn't that tolerant to a freshman who voted to impeach Trump in one of his first votes. Besides, as others said, the general election itself will hardly be a cakewalk now that Meijer's district is solidly for Biden. The chances that Meijer survives through both of them is, to say the least, low.

Looking at Rice, I can't see how he survives, either, so I'm just writing him off, too.

Cheney will go down as well, since she's still not coming first despite a divided field in most polls, and I think the anti-Cheney faction will coalesce behind one or two candidates by the time of the primary, dooming her.

I actually think Newhouse makes it, since he outperformed Trump solidly in 2020 (by double digits, in fact) and eastern WA doesn't look like it's too Trumpish. Also, there's the top-two primary.

I think Beutler also makes it since her district is more evenly divided between Democrats and GOPers and she, too, outperformed Trump (by high single digits). She can use the top-two primary system to her advantage.

Lastly, there's David Valadao. I'm very iffy on him. The district did bluen up even further, but it was only by a few points, and since Valadao outperformed Trump by double digits in 2020, it's hardly impossible he makes it in 2022 as well. On the other hand, top two might not work to his benefit here. I would say he's a 50-50 overall.

So that means 2-3 Republicans (both the Washingtonians and maybe Valadao) will survive as of right now. Still not going to cast a vote just to be on the safe side.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Aside from the 4 who are definitely done, these 6 remain: Rice, Cheney, Newhouse, Herrera-Buetler, Valadao and Meijer.

I'm going to start by guessing that Meijer goes down. The primary won't be easy, since contrary to what Roll Roons and other say, the GOP primary electorate in the Grand Rapids area probably still isn't that tolerant to a freshman who voted to impeach Trump in one of his first votes. Besides, as others said, the general election itself will hardly be a cakewalk now that Meijer's district is solidly for Biden. The chances that Meijer survives through both of them is, to say the least, low.

Looking at Rice, I can't see how he survives, either, so I'm just writing him off, too.

Cheney will go down as well, since she's still not coming first despite a divided field in most polls, and I think the anti-Cheney faction will coalesce behind one or two candidates by the time of the primary, dooming her.

I actually think Newhouse makes it, since he outperformed Trump solidly in 2020 (by double digits, in fact) and eastern WA doesn't look like it's too Trumpish. Also, there's the top-two primary.

I think Beutler also makes it since her district is more evenly divided between Democrats and GOPers and she, too, outperformed Trump (by high single digits). She can use the top-two primary system to her advantage.

Lastly, there's David Valadao. I'm very iffy on him. The district did bluen up even further, but it was only by a few points, and since Valadao outperformed Trump by double digits in 2020, it's hardly impossible he makes it in 2022 as well. On the other hand, top two might not work to his benefit here. I would say he's a 50-50 overall.

So that means 2-3 Republicans (both the Washingtonians and maybe Valadao) will survive as of right now. Still not going to cast a vote just to be on the safe side.

Beutler has consistently been in 3rd behind the democrat and Kent in polling and is the only impeachment voter to trail her primary challenger in fundraising. I doubt she makes it to the runoff, there's only one main democrat in the race.

[Schiff for Senate]

Aside from the 4 who are definitely done, these 6 remain: Rice, Cheney, Newhouse, Herrera-Buetler, Valadao and Meijer.

I'm going to start by guessing that Meijer goes down. The primary won't be easy, since contrary to what Roll Roons and other say, the GOP primary electorate in the Grand Rapids area probably still isn't that tolerant to a freshman who voted to impeach Trump in one of his first votes. Besides, as others said, the general election itself will hardly be a cakewalk now that Meijer's district is solidly for Biden. The chances that Meijer survives through both of them is, to say the least, low.

Looking at Rice, I can't see how he survives, either, so I'm just writing him off, too.

Cheney will go down as well, since she's still not coming first despite a divided field in most polls, and I think the anti-Cheney faction will coalesce behind one or two candidates by the time of the primary, dooming her.

I actually think Newhouse makes it, since he outperformed Trump solidly in 2020 (by double digits, in fact) and eastern WA doesn't look like it's too Trumpish. Also, there's the top-two primary.

I think Beutler also makes it since her district is more evenly divided between Democrats and GOPers and she, too, outperformed Trump (by high single digits). She can use the top-two primary system to her advantage.

Lastly, there's David Valadao. I'm very iffy on him. The district did bluen up even further, but it was only by a few points, and since Valadao outperformed Trump by double digits in 2020, it's hardly impossible he makes it in 2022 as well. On the other hand, top two might not work to his benefit here. I would say he's a 50-50 overall.

So that means 2-3 Republicans (both the Washingtonians and maybe Valadao) will survive as of right now. Still not going to cast a vote just to be on the safe side.

Beutler has consistently been in 3rd behind the democrat and Kent in polling and is the only impeachment voter to trail her primary challenger in fundraising. I doubt she makes it to the runoff, there's only one main democrat in the race.

Then I think 2 will probably make it, not 3.

[Tekken_Guy]

Aside from the 4 who are definitely done, these 6 remain: Rice, Cheney, Newhouse, Herrera-Buetler, Valadao and Meijer.

I'm going to start by guessing that Meijer goes down. The primary won't be easy, since contrary to what Roll Roons and other say, the GOP primary electorate in the Grand Rapids area probably still isn't that tolerant to a freshman who voted to impeach Trump in one of his first votes. Besides, as others said, the general election itself will hardly be a cakewalk now that Meijer's district is solidly for Biden. The chances that Meijer survives through both of them is, to say the least, low.

Looking at Rice, I can't see how he survives, either, so I'm just writing him off, too.

Cheney will go down as well, since she's still not coming first despite a divided field in most polls, and I think the anti-Cheney faction will coalesce behind one or two candidates by the time of the primary, dooming her.

I actually think Newhouse makes it, since he outperformed Trump solidly in 2020 (by double digits, in fact) and eastern WA doesn't look like it's too Trumpish. Also, there's the top-two primary.

I think Beutler also makes it since her district is more evenly divided between Democrats and GOPers and she, too, outperformed Trump (by high single digits). She can use the top-two primary system to her advantage.

Lastly, there's David Valadao. I'm very iffy on him. The district did bluen up even further, but it was only by a few points, and since Valadao outperformed Trump by double digits in 2020, it's hardly impossible he makes it in 2022 as well. On the other hand, top two might not work to his benefit here. I would say he's a 50-50 overall.

So that means 2-3 Republicans (both the Washingtonians and maybe Valadao) will survive as of right now. Still not going to cast a vote just to be on the safe side.

Beutler has consistently been in 3rd behind the democrat and Kent in polling and is the only impeachment voter to trail her primary challenger in fundraising. I doubt she makes it to the runoff, there's only one main democrat in the race.

Then I think 2 will probably make it, not 3.

Heidi St. John is also in and may start to take votes away from Kent.

Also Newhouse may not survive if Culp wins the R vote by an insurmountable margin.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Aside from the 4 who are definitely done, these 6 remain: Rice, Cheney, Newhouse, Herrera-Buetler, Valadao and Meijer.

I'm going to start by guessing that Meijer goes down. The primary won't be easy, since contrary to what Roll Roons and other say, the GOP primary electorate in the Grand Rapids area probably still isn't that tolerant to a freshman who voted to impeach Trump in one of his first votes. Besides, as others said, the general election itself will hardly be a cakewalk now that Meijer's district is solidly for Biden. The chances that Meijer survives through both of them is, to say the least, low.

Looking at Rice, I can't see how he survives, either, so I'm just writing him off, too.

Cheney will go down as well, since she's still not coming first despite a divided field in most polls, and I think the anti-Cheney faction will coalesce behind one or two candidates by the time of the primary, dooming her.

I actually think Newhouse makes it, since he outperformed Trump solidly in 2020 (by double digits, in fact) and eastern WA doesn't look like it's too Trumpish. Also, there's the top-two primary.

I think Beutler also makes it since her district is more evenly divided between Democrats and GOPers and she, too, outperformed Trump (by high single digits). She can use the top-two primary system to her advantage.

Lastly, there's David Valadao. I'm very iffy on him. The district did bluen up even further, but it was only by a few points, and since Valadao outperformed Trump by double digits in 2020, it's hardly impossible he makes it in 2022 as well. On the other hand, top two might not work to his benefit here. I would say he's a 50-50 overall.

So that means 2-3 Republicans (both the Washingtonians and maybe Valadao) will survive as of right now. Still not going to cast a vote just to be on the safe side.

Beutler has consistently been in 3rd behind the democrat and Kent in polling and is the only impeachment voter to trail her primary challenger in fundraising. I doubt she makes it to the runoff, there's only one main democrat in the race.

Then I think 2 will probably make it, not 3.

Heidi St. John is also in and may start to take votes away from Kent.

Also Newhouse may not survive if Culp wins the R vote by an insurmountable margin.

Heidi St John is essentially a non-factor.

[Senator Incitatus]

Heidi St John is essentially a non-factor.

If anything St. John will drop out and solidify Kent's clear lead.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Heidi St John is essentially a non-factor.

If anything St. John will drop out and solidify Kent's clear lead.

St John won't drop out. Despite being an irrelevance, she's been attacking Kent on Twitter and calling him a socialist ().

[Senator Incitatus]

Heidi St John is essentially a non-factor.

If anything St. John will drop out and solidify Kent's clear lead.

St John won't drop out. Despite being an irrelevance, she's been attacking Kent on Twitter and calling him a socialist ().

She might not formally withdraw, but Twitter means little to nothing at this level and her campaign will bleed dollars until she fades.

[The Mikado]

The answer ended up being 2! Congrats to the relatively small number of people who chose it.

[Schiff for Senate]

Aside from the 4 who are definitely done, these 6 remain: Rice, Cheney, Newhouse, Herrera-Buetler, Valadao and Meijer.

I'm going to start by guessing that Meijer goes down. The primary won't be easy, since contrary to what Roll Roons and other say, the GOP primary electorate in the Grand Rapids area probably still isn't that tolerant to a freshman who voted to impeach Trump in one of his first votes. Besides, as others said, the general election itself will hardly be a cakewalk now that Meijer's district is solidly for Biden. The chances that Meijer survives through both of them is, to say the least, low.

Looking at Rice, I can't see how he survives, either, so I'm just writing him off, too.

Cheney will go down as well, since she's still not coming first despite a divided field in most polls, and I think the anti-Cheney faction will coalesce behind one or two candidates by the time of the primary, dooming her.

I actually think Newhouse makes it, since he outperformed Trump solidly in 2020 (by double digits, in fact) and eastern WA doesn't look like it's too Trumpish. Also, there's the top-two primary.

I think Beutler also makes it since her district is more evenly divided between Democrats and GOPers and she, too, outperformed Trump (by high single digits). She can use the top-two primary system to her advantage.

Lastly, there's David Valadao. I'm very iffy on him. The district did bluen up even further, but it was only by a few points, and since Valadao outperformed Trump by double digits in 2020, it's hardly impossible he makes it in 2022 as well. On the other hand, top two might not work to his benefit here. I would say he's a 50-50 overall.

So that means 2-3 Republicans (both the Washingtonians and maybe Valadao) will survive as of right now. Still not going to cast a vote just to be on the safe side.

Beutler has consistently been in 3rd behind the democrat and Kent in polling and is the only impeachment voter to trail her primary challenger in fundraising. I doubt she makes it to the runoff, there's only one main democrat in the race.

Then I think 2 will probably make it, not 3.

Right on the money! And my individual predictions were all right too, except I admittedly hedged a bit on Valadao and changed my mind on Buetler.

[Ferguson97]

The answer ended up being 2! Congrats to the relatively small number of people who chose it.

I didn't vote here, but I remember picking 'none' in another thread asking the same question.

I know Valadao scraped by, but who was the other one?

[TwinGeeks99]

The answer ended up being 2! Congrats to the relatively small number of people who chose it.

I didn't vote here, but I remember picking 'none' in another thread asking the same question.

I know Valadao scraped by, but who was the other one?

It was Dan Newhouse in Washington's 4th district.