Hungarian elections and politics

[Death of a Salesman]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

[Lord Halifax]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

no, general elections are about choosing the governing alternative and the "package" of policies you find the least reprehensible (and in FPTP system often also the candidate you trust the most) not individual policies, you'd need a Swiss style referendum system for that.

[rob in cal]

  I'd love to see more referenda on global/national type issues like immigration, the euro, etc. I know Hungary had a referendum on immigration about the Hungarian parliaments power over it, but it failed due to the quorum requirement.

[tepoe]

Hopefully, they can lower the threshold to 40% and redo it.

A small minority should not be allowed to obstruct democracy.


That is not too likely, as
1. Fidesz itself increased the theshold and tightened the rules on referenda in 2011 to block opposition initiatives (with 100% efficiency so far, but the first of many that went throu will likely to be held later this year).
2. There is absolutely no need to. All four questions are already on “no” on existing Hungarian legislation. Fidesz will still surely pass something and say that they now implementing the vote, but that’s just a show.

Otherwise: the yes vote comes from (mostly Fidesz) voters who did not understand the questions. Nobody campaigned for the yes vote, even LGBT organistions went for invalidity. I.e. Yes for question 3 would mean that all restrictions for kids watching porn would be abolished. Still, 4,6 % for yes…

[Umengus]

We'll have to see just how much the numbers will tighten, but it looks like Hungary will remain the stronghold of sanity within Europe (though I've been a lot less impressed by their Ukraine stance tbh). Anyone who's actually been there and talked with people there (and I don't just mean globalist "academics" from CEU or some bartender at a downtown Buda club) understands Hungary is not a "far-right dictatorship" but rather a country that, in most regards, is similar to literally all European countries just a few decades ago in terms of morality, while making enormous economic progress, and that isn't interested in going into full neo-communist self-destruction mode like all of Western Europe. No wonder people keep voting Fidesz.

100 % correct.

I was there in october, in the fidez demonstration in Budapest and it was pretty good. Budapest is very beautiful, very clean, so much better than brussels, where I work. Orban position on putin is bad but well, not so bad than (belgian) greens (who prefer gas to nuke) lol

Budapest is just a suburb of Brussels. 70% of their legislation is still written down my street. Feels good man

I have some doubts on this number.

Budapest is of course a nicer city than Brussels. It’s also run by progressives.

Gembloux on the other hand…makes Brussels look like St Tropez.

lol, what do you have against gembloux? to choose I prefer to live there than in Brussels, except maybe uccle, woluwe saint pierre or ganshoren. And until recently budapest was run by fidez

[Umengus]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

no, quite good

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Hopefully, they can lower the threshold to 40% and redo it.

A small minority should not be allowed to obstruct democracy.


That is not too likely, as
1. Fidesz itself increased the theshold and tightened the rules on referenda in 2011 to block opposition initiatives (with 100% efficiency so far, but the first of many that went throu will likely to be held later this year).
2. There is absolutely no need to. All four questions are already on “no” on existing Hungarian legislation. Fidesz will still surely pass something and say that they now implementing the vote, but that’s just a show.

Otherwise: the yes vote comes from (mostly Fidesz) voters who did not understand the questions. Nobody campaigned for the yes vote, even LGBT organistions went for invalidity. I.e. Yes for question 3 would mean that all restrictions for kids watching porn would be abolished. Still, 4,6 % for yes…

This wasn’t a “small” minority. Hundreds of thousands cast invalid votes against Fidesz’s loaded questions.

[Turning Point Liyue]

No, it just fits into the age-old pattern of liberals sponsoring and eventually melding with fascists (the famous and always vindicated quote, "scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds.")

Wow, I managed to find a more braindead take than even most of the pro-Orban takes

Truth hurts, doesn't it?

Liberals do not like it when they are exposed. When they can't even see it when they're literally palling around with dudes who call for Jew lists, they're hopeless. Malcolm X was correct about white liberals.

[Death of a Salesman]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
I would hope that you could understand why referenda are generally regarded as more democratic, for better or worse, than a system of representative democracy.

[Zinneke]

We'll have to see just how much the numbers will tighten, but it looks like Hungary will remain the stronghold of sanity within Europe (though I've been a lot less impressed by their Ukraine stance tbh). Anyone who's actually been there and talked with people there (and I don't just mean globalist "academics" from CEU or some bartender at a downtown Buda club) understands Hungary is not a "far-right dictatorship" but rather a country that, in most regards, is similar to literally all European countries just a few decades ago in terms of morality, while making enormous economic progress, and that isn't interested in going into full neo-communist self-destruction mode like all of Western Europe. No wonder people keep voting Fidesz.

100 % correct.

I was there in october, in the fidez demonstration in Budapest and it was pretty good. Budapest is very beautiful, very clean, so much better than brussels, where I work. Orban position on putin is bad but well, not so bad than (belgian) greens (who prefer gas to nuke) lol

Budapest is just a suburb of Brussels. 70% of their legislation is still written down my street. Feels good man

I have some doubts on this number.

Budapest is of course a nicer city than Brussels. It’s also run by progressives.

Gembloux on the other hand…makes Brussels look like St Tropez.

lol, what do you have against gembloux? to choose I prefer to live there than in Brussels, except maybe uccle, woluwe saint pierre or ganshoren. And until recently budapest was run by fidez

Gembloux is geographical purgatory. The frontier between inbred Sambre valley types who run over pedestrians because they are cognitively defecient, and arsehole BéWé types who run over pedestrians while drink-driving because they are Daddy's boys who need their arse wiping in the morning. Makes me almost wish I was Flemish. I mean what the fcuck happens in Gembloux? One of the places where, when the curfew was announced during lockdown, precisely bugger all changed in terms of nightlife and social activity.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
I would hope that you could understand why referenda are generally regarded as more democratic, for better or worse, than a system of representative democracy.

No, absolutely not.

But the fact remains that if enough people care about immigration (or indeed almost any other issue you care to name) enough, that will show itself in election results. And indeed has done.

[Death of a Salesman]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
I would hope that you could understand why referenda are generally regarded as more democratic, for better or worse, than a system of representative democracy.

No, absolutely not.

But the fact remains that if enough people care about immigration (or indeed almost any other issue you care to name) enough, that will show itself in election results. And indeed has done.

To some extent, sure. The electorate in France may be angry enough at the shocking pace of immigration to throw the bums out and elect Le Pen, who will actually let them vote on the pace. But for all the whining about democracy, it bears worth mentioning that Le Pen thinks the French people have a right to decide their immigration policy, and Macron doesn't.

[parochial boy]

You know, I am incredibly attached to the system of referendums and initiatives that we have here. But there is a world of difference between how it works here; though a structure framed by the constitution and with clear criteria on when, why and how a vote is held. And consequently, a consensus on the legitimacy of the exercise. The rule by plebiscite where the executive decides on its own what votes it wants to hold and with the principal objective to force certain issues to the top of the agenda and shore up support is something rather different in exactly how democratic of an excercise it is.

As in, one person deciding what issues it is that people are allowed to vote on - usually to suit themselves - rather taints how democratic it is.

For what it's worth - we have had, off the top of my head 11 referendum or initiative questions on immigration over the last 50 years or so, and all but 2 decided against restricting or in favour of loosening immigration requirements. All that in a country that does not have areputation for being particularly friendly towards migrants

[Badger]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
I would hope that you could understand why referenda are generally regarded as more democratic, for better or worse, than a system of representative democracy.

 Pro tip. Please do not post with an air of detached  I'm so much smarter than you"" , when you insist on making posts this stupid.

[Death of a Salesman]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
I would hope that you could understand why referenda are generally regarded as more democratic, for better or worse, than a system of representative democracy.

 Pro tip. Please do not post with an air of detached  I'm so much smarter than you"" , when you insist on making posts this stupid.

Oh god forbid someone treat you with the respect you deserve.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Boy I have never really post on this board but i decide to check it out and it turns out between this and the France thread there are rw posters on this site who simp for wannabe dictators and “reformed” Nazis

[MRCVzla]

Results with 100% of the votes counted:
Fidesz-KDNP (Orbán, national-conservatives): 54.10% (135 seats: 48 PR+87 FPTP)
United for Hungary (Opposition alliance): 34.46% (57 seats: 38 PR+19 FPTP)
Mi Hazánk (Our Country, far-right): 5.88% (6 seats, all PR)
MKKP (Two-Tailed Dog Party, satire/joke party): 3.27%
MEMO (Solution Movemement, p*rn mogul-led focus on digital): 1.04%
NÉP (Normal Life Party, antivaxxers, COVID denialists): 0.70%
MNOÖ (German minority): 0.44% (1 seat)
Other national minorities: 0.11%

The Leftist Alliance of Munkáspárt and MSZP-split ISZOMM only ran in the constituency vote and got more than 8000 votes (0.2%)

Opposition alliance composition (assuming Karácsony does not take his seat and stays as Mayor of Budapest):
DK (Gyurcsany cult): 16
Momentum (liberals): 11 (includes 2 independents)
MSZP (pasokized socialists): 10
Jobbik (reformed neonazis): 9-10
Párbeszéd (green liberals): 6-7
LMP (greens): 4

During the final tally of votes, the Opposition regained the 13th district of Budapest with a majority of 468 votes, who in the preliminary count, Fidesz was leading with a majority of just 37 votes. So the Opposition won all but one district in Budapest (17 out of 18) plus one urban district in both Baranya (Pécs) and Csongrad-Csanád (Szeged). Marki-Zay lost his district by a margin of 6000 votes but he says at least won in his Hódmezővásárhely town. During the course of the week, the big chunk of ultra-Fidesz postal abroad vote (94% of them, almost 250k votes) gave the 48th PR seat at cost of the 38th seat of the opposition, but with the foreign representations votes coming, not only regained the Budapest 13 district but also the 38th seat at expense of Mi Hazánk' 7th seat.

[Cassius]

Boy I have never really post on this board but i decide to check it out and it turns out between this and the France thread there are rw posters on this site who simp for wannabe dictators and “reformed” Nazis

The reformed Nazis are a key component of the opposition coalition for the record.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Boy I have never really post on this board but i decide to check it out and it turns out between this and the France thread there are rw posters on this site who simp for wannabe dictators and “reformed” Nazis

The reformed Nazis are a key component of the opposition coalition for the record.

Yes, this is undeniable.
Worth noting that in 2014 most of the opposition teamed up, excluding Jobbik, and it didn't really work for them either.

[tepoe]

Now that the final numbers are in, I try to summarize what I might understood:

1. Fidesz would most likely have won this election even under fair conditions, which we did not have, of course. All their main campaign messages were right on point to turn out their own vote and to make doubts in possible opposition voters: the opposition coalition is only in it for the power with a lack of vision and an inability to govern, they are puppets to foreign powers as they always say what is in line with the western mainstream views, they are 100% Gyurcsány, living conditions were improved in the last decade, political stability is crucial in times of war. These are all very clear and simple messages: even never-Orbán voters like me had to somehow deal with the truth - or at least some elements of the truth - in them (lot of my friends even hoped for a narrow Fidesz win, even though they voted opposition), while politically less active and even peripheral voters could also understand them as questions to decide at the ballots. The only issue without a real overall general appeal was indeed the child protection/LGBT-phobic referendum, but it still did not hurt them (and was actually useful addition in speaking to their core base).
 
Of course it was way easier to deliver this interpretation of the elections with the help of ten times more money and considerably more human resources than the other parties combined had, so the results are also a proof that Fidesz will now be very hard to beat on elections even if they make political mistakes and/or their decade-long luck with favourable economic conditions will come to and end. But Fidesz made no mistakes leading up to this year's elections and their - huge and obviously not sustainable - pre-election welfare spendings saved them from losses coming from already worsening economic prospects. They even had room to talk about hard times coming, which will be useful for them in the blamegame.

2. There are no public data on exit polls (which is in itself a sign on the malfunctioning of Hungarian democracy, just like the lack of quality opinion polling), but on the basis of several field campaign and polling station reports, I am almost certain that the unexpectedly huge gap between the Fidesz and the opposition lists still mostly comes from the powerful smear campaign on the opposition on their stance on the possibility of Hungarian involvement in the Russian-Ukranian war. Nobody (I assume nor Fidesz pollsters in their real, unpublished numbers) expected the support for the opposition list to drop way below 40%, while Fidesz even improving on their 2018 numbers was also on the high end of their expectations. The fact that opposition PM-candidate Péter Márki-Zay ('MZP') made an unforced error in an interview talking about the possibility of sending soldiers to the conflict zone on a NATO-backed mission, if there will be one, made it significantly easier for Fidesz to paint the opposition as warmongers which was not only convincing for outright pro-russian voters (who are numerous, but still a minority even among Fidesz supporters), but it was also highly effective in bringing out the "rally around the flag" effect regards ideologically not aligned voters. If the opposition would have more sensitive communication, that alone naturally would not have save them from votes against them "for peace", but defending MZP's stance and - otherwise brave, but silly - opposition statements like "Ukraine fights our war" made it easy for Fidesz to react on the war situation without the need to come up with a coherent view on world politics.

3. The opposition campaign had no clear messages for anyone outside their opinion bubble. Talking about Orbán's putinization, rule of law and corruption had provided no positive identification points and their effect on unaligned voters was easy to minimize by relativisation and the agenda setting force of Fidesz controlled communication channels full with real and made-up opposition corruption cases. MZP talked a lot and took divisive stances (to break the media bubble as he said), but there was no clear focus and the inevitable corrections had put the opposition campaign to permanent defense. Still, this anti-Orbán message and the broad alliance made it possible to flip traditional right-wing districts in the Buda part of the capitol and made MZP's own Hódmezővásárhely district relatively close (compared to the the national voteshares), which is quite a feat in this disastrous results, but that is the very same campaign dynamics that "stripped off their votes in tonnes" in everywhere else as one narrowly reelected opposition MP said.

4. There seem to be six general takeaways shared by at least some prominent figures of the opposition (apart from their most shared takeaway, i.e. the fact, that nobody stepped down from leading roles so far, which is also a sign of the malfunctioning of Hungarian democracy, but this time Orbán is clearly not responsible for it)

a. a rightwing PM candidate for a left-balanced coalition was a mistake: it might be true to some extent, but I would not read too much into it, it has more to do with political messaging and the lack of it. For example MZP is now also criticized by the leftist parties for talking about maintaining current electricity/gas/water consumer prize caps (as they disproportionetly help the rich) and Fidesz successfully campaigned against him that he will drop them to prove that he is "against the people". I don't see the way how this topic could have been won by the oppisition.

b. Jobbik came to the alliance, but 2018 Jobbik supporters did not join them: it was never realistic to count all 2018 Jobbik voters to the opposition column, losing 30% of them to Our Homeland (de facto the 2010 Jobbik with some added anti-Covid restriction elements) was not a bad result for the joint opposition in these elections. Results from the best 2018 Jobbik districts even show signs that the majority of 2018 Jobbik votes actually went to the opposition there. So I am not sure that there was a specific problem for the joint opposition in this field: maybe these voters were just simply disproportionally affected by the general movement of the opposition losing and Fidesz gaining support in rural communities, smaller towns and working class neighbourhoods.

c. we did not talk about everyday problems enough: that is a fact, but it would be also important to understand how Fidesz did so (in its own, but rather successful way).

d. MKKP (the joke party) and other minor parties gave two-thirds to Fidesz again: that is a rerun of the 2018 narratives, but with much less basis - the MKKP candidate who openly endorsed her constituency opponent and only campaigned for the list vote also received significant amount of votes, so we can say that this time nothing or very little in the direction of the will of 'full opposition alliance' was left unheard by the voters.

e. Fidesz brainwash worked well: ridiculously partisan state media, Fidesz controll over most of the media, well above 100 billion HUF communication spending for coordinated Fidesz campaigns are a thing, of course, but different realities are not that simple, that the others are brainwashed and we are the clever ones, not even in reality, but even less in the case of political communication.

f. the elections were rigged: of course they were, but that does not solve the problem that 'not Fidesz' clearly did not have the voter support to make this election at least somewhat close. Talking about problems with postal votes which only contributed to a single Fidesz mandate is outright pointless, but the scale of opposition defeat must also make all other unfair elements of the system secondary to the internal problems of the opposition. There is one rigged thing here as well, as the Fidesz controlled Parliament amended the requirement for running party lists to limit coordination on the level of individual candidates, and that led to the formation of the single joint opposition list. As far as Fidesz will be in a position to change anything in the election system for 4 more years, it is too early to talk about the next election even in this aspect (I would now not rule out a constitutional reform to a presidential or a semi-presidential system), but I am sure that if the prize of a broad opposition alliance remains this high on terms of political functionality, than it will be better to restart it with a less integrated version with more essence and a higher ability to adapt to the political discourse.

[Badger]

Hungary is of course not a dictatorship.

Much less so than most of Western Europe, I would add, where we have no say whatsoever on issues as important as immigration and gender ideology in schools.

What an incredibly stupid post.

There are a couple different ways this could be read.
1. You are under the mistaken impression that Western European countries regularly consult the electorate on immigration.
2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
3. You think that immigration should not be subject to democratic control.
None of those views really reflect well on you.

Isn't that basically what those things called "elections" are for?

2. You think any system with elections automatically represents public preferences as long as those public preferences coincide with your personal preferences.
I would hope that you could understand why referenda are generally regarded as more democratic, for better or worse, than a system of representative democracy.

 Pro tip. Please do not post with an air of detached  I'm so much smarter than you"" , when you insist on making posts this stupid.

Oh god forbid someone treat you with the respect you deserve.

I assure you I'm treating you with more respect than your "arguments" deserve.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Did opposition say something about Horty's statue in Parliament?

[Estrella]

How's Viktor Orbán's genius economic management doing?



Of course, Fidesz can never fail, only be failed. Hence this:

https://twitter.com/BalazsOrban_HU/status/1614300344170827776