Rate CA-45

[Greedo punched first]

Rate CA-45.

[Minnesota Mike]

Likely Steel (R).

Just a suggestion, put names in the poll. I happened to know this one but with 435 districts and coming off redistricting it's a lot ask for people to know who is running in every district. Granted Atlas is populated by geeks who know who is running in every competitive district but still a reminder is not a bad idea.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt Steele.

I think some on Atlas are heavily overrating her. Her 2020 performance wasn't really that impressive; Biden only barely carried her old district and some could argue that Trump's performance out of Garden Grove was not the norm.

Also, in the new heavily Asian district, at least give Dems credit for running an Asian American against her rather than in 2020 where it was a white dude who fell asleep at the wheel. Plus, her new district is a few points bluer and I don't think we should be treating 2020-Pres result as the norm for the district, especially since "No" actually did better in the district than Biden.

And finally, what has Steele done to moderate? She's running in a Biden district yet voted against things like marriage equality and abortion protections that a lot of other Rs in comeptative/Biden districts did.

[Greedo punched first]

Tilt Steele.

I think some on Atlas are heavily overrating her. Her 2020 performance wasn't really that impressive; Biden only barely carried her old district and some could argue that Trump's performance out of Garden Grove was not the norm.

Also, in the new heavily Asian district, at least give Dems credit for running an Asian American against her rather than in 2020 where it was a white dude who fell asleep at the wheel. Plus, her new district is a few points bluer and I don't think we should be treating 2020-Pres result as the norm for the district, especially since "No" actually did better in the district than Biden.

And finally, what has Steele done to moderate? She's running in a Biden district yet voted against things like marriage equality and abortion protections that a lot of other Rs in comeptative/Biden districts did.

Jay Chen is a carpetbagger.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Tilt Steele.

I think some on Atlas are heavily overrating her. Her 2020 performance wasn't really that impressive; Biden only barely carried her old district and some could argue that Trump's performance out of Garden Grove was not the norm.

Also, in the new heavily Asian district, at least give Dems credit for running an Asian American against her rather than in 2020 where it was a white dude who fell asleep at the wheel. Plus, her new district is a few points bluer and I don't think we should be treating 2020-Pres result as the norm for the district, especially since "No" actually did better in the district than Biden.

And finally, what has Steele done to moderate? She's running in a Biden district yet voted against things like marriage equality and abortion protections that a lot of other Rs in comeptative/Biden districts did.

Jay Chen is a carpetbagger.

IIRC Steele lives in Seal Beach, which is also outside the new district.

Would’ve said Tossup if it weren’t for the national environment.

And finally, what has Steele done to moderate? She's running in a Biden district yet voted against things like marriage equality and abortion protections that a lot of other Rs in comeptative/Biden districts did.

As much as I wish this weren’t the case, Steele’s voting record probably won’t tarnish her reputation among R-leaning voters in her new district.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Jay Chen actually have a better chance of winning in CA-45 than Mondaire Jones does in NY-10?

[wesmoorenerd]

Lean R, verging on Likely. This is one of the three districts to the left of the nation that I don't really think Dems have much of a shot in, alongside PA-01 and NY-19.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean R, verging on Likely. This is one of the three districts to the left of the nation that I don't really think Dems have much of a shot in, alongside PA-01 and NY-19.

PA-01 I agree but NY-19... Really?

Also rmbr that come November the Dutchess County portion of NY-19 will be eliminated.

[wesmoorenerd]

Lean R, verging on Likely. This is one of the three districts to the left of the nation that I don't really think Dems have much of a shot in, alongside PA-01 and NY-19.

PA-01 I agree but NY-19... Really?

Also rmbr that come November the Dutchess County portion of NY-19 will be eliminated.

It's only a shade left of the nation at large and both of the Democratic candidates here seem like C-listers. Notably, they were both outraised and outspent by Molinaro last quarter and both have less COH, which is a rarity for a seat this competitive this cycle. Granted, Molinaro has a special to deal with first, and after that special we'll have a greater sense of his strength as a candidate. I do think it's the most likely out of those three seats for my assessment to change later on.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt R