Rate WI-SEN 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate the 2024 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R with Johnson.

Tilt R if he ends up not running.

I still think he does though.

[Astatine]

Lean R with Johnson.

Tilt R if he ends up not running.

I still think he does though.

It's about 2024,  when Baldwin is up for re-election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R with Johnson.

Tilt R if he ends up not running.

I still think he does though.

It's about 2024,  when Baldwin is up for re-election.

I actually realized this just before you quoted me.

Anyway, I'll go with tilt D then, this early on. It's really going to depend on her opponent and the environment.

[MargieCat]

I'm thinking it will be Baldwin vs. Gallagher.

[SnowLabrador]

I'll go with Lean R.

[GALeftist]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

[S019]

A very slight Tilt D, Baldwin has shown she can outrun the ticket in the past, and I think that'll hold as long as the Republicans either win WI by less than 2-3 or lose it.

[Pericles]

A very slight Tilt D, Baldwin has shown she can outrun the ticket in the past, and I think that'll hold as long as the Republicans either win WI by less than 2-3 or lose it.

Not in 2012, though Tommy Thompson was likely a bit of a stronger candidate than Romney.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, IL and PA are safe in 2023 but MD,E and MI aren't as same as I said in Mi thread the Big three are safe in Prez yr not in Midterm where Whitmer is clear Craig, that doesn't mean she will lose sj is vulnerable

[Xing]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

She does seem to have some sort of magic touch in the state. She easily dispatched a strong opponent in 2012, and massively over-performed in 2018, though against a very weak opponent. All this in a state with one of the worst overall trends for Democrats to boot. She might be Wisconsin's equivalent to Sherrod Brown. But even brown's reign looks like it's going to end soon enough. We still shouldn't be too overconfident.

[mtvoter]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

All this in a state with one of the worst overall trends for Democrats to boot. She might be Wisconsin's equivalent to Sherrod Brown. But even brown's reign looks like it's going to end soon enough.

So what you're saying is Tammy is going to keep winning until Don Jr or Tucker Carlsen wins Wisonsin by +8

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

All this in a state with one of the worst overall trends for Democrats to boot. She might be Wisconsin's equivalent to Sherrod Brown. But even brown's reign looks like it's going to end soon enough.

So what you're saying is Tammy is going to keep winning until Don Jr or Tucker Carlsen wins Wisonsin by +8

Sure. Why not at this point?

[Xing]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

All this in a state with one of the worst overall trends for Democrats to boot.

I'm not sure about this part. The overall trend isn't great for Democrats, but they have lots of room to grow in the WOW counties, so I don't think it's implausible that the state remains competitive for the foreseeable future. IA/OH and arguably FL look much bleaker for Democrats.

[Roll Roons]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

All this in a state with one of the worst overall trends for Democrats to boot.

I'm not sure about this part. The overall trend isn't great for Democrats, but they have lots of room to grow in the WOW counties, so I don't think it's implausible that the state remains competitive for the foreseeable future. IA/OH and arguably FL look much bleaker for Democrats.

And don't forget that Dane is by far the fastest-growing county in the state.

[DS0816]

Rate the 2024 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin.

Tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D, I think that an R flip would need to involve the Republican nominee for President winning Wisconsin by more than a couple points at least, which is pretty unlikely.

This. Baldwin has been underestimated every cycle, and I have a feeling that will be the case for 2024 as well.

All this in a state with one of the worst overall trends for Democrats to boot.

I'm not sure about this part. The overall trend isn't great for Democrats, but they have lots of room to grow in the WOW counties, so I don't think it's implausible that the state remains competitive for the foreseeable future. IA/OH and arguably FL look much bleaker for Democrats.

That's true. And don't get me wrong, like Michigan, it still can, and maybe even will, potentially vote Democratic statewide for another few cycles. I'm not completely giving up on it like I have with the three states you mentioned.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean D, but much closer to Tilt D than Likely D. I feel like the NRSC/Republican outside groups will make the same mistake Democrats are making in attacking Ron Johnson: drive home the "Baldwin is an extremist/socialist" message when everyone already knows Baldwin is a left-winger and the party would be better served by deconstructing her very carefully cultivated brand of non-ideological, 'whose-only-label-is-fight-for-you' authenticity.

[beesley]

Lean D seems pretty fair this far out - the only rating that combines both the idea that the race could be competitive but also gives some credence to the idea that this is not just some 'win Wisconsin and win the Senate Race' for Republicans.