IL-3 2022: Marie Newman (D) vs. Dan Lipinski (R)

[Tekken_Guy]

Let's say Dan Lipinski switches parties and runs as a Republican against Marie Newman. Who would win?

[UncleSam]

Likely Newman, but I doubt Lipinski would run as an R anyway. Safe Newman against anyone else obviously.

[Girlytree]

Still Newman, though depending on how redistricting goes it could get interesting.

[VPH]

It's obvious who I would personally support, but I think Newman would narrowly win.

[Spectator]

I just think this district is inflexibly blue. Bruce Rauner couldn’t even win it in 2014.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Actually, according to ourcampaigns, Bruce Rauner did very narrowly win it in 2014.

[😥]

It's obvious who I would personally support, but I think Newman would narrowly win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's obvious who I would personally support, but I think Newman would narrowly win.

[President Johnson]

Newman very likely win.

How would Lipinski win the Republican nomination? Does he start to embrace their cult leader?

[Woody]

The current district lines went from Clinton +15 to Biden +13, and Newman had the same victory margin as Biden, which is a big underperformance from Lipinski's previous winning margins, which shows he had a lot of crossover support from both sides.

The race would be lean D.

[Coldstream]

Lipinski voted to impeach Trump, so it’s hard to see him winning a primary.

[Schiff for Senate]

The current district lines went from Clinton +15 to Biden +13, and Newman had the same victory margin as Biden, which is a big underperformance from Lipinski's previous winning margins, which shows he had a lot of crossover support from both sides.

The race would be lean D.

A Republican Lipinski will need to prove he is slavishly loyal to Trump to win the GOP primary, and the voters who supported a centre-left, anti-Trump Democrat will not necessarily support a centre-right to right, pro-Trump, flip-flopping, "Republican" who wants his old seat back. They may stay home but there's no reason to be sure they'll back Lipinski once he joins the Dark Side.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dan Lipinski would not be able to pull off a Van Drew. Newman would have this.

[Gracile]

The current district lines went from Clinton +15 to Biden +13, and Newman had the same victory margin as Biden, which is a big underperformance from Lipinski's previous winning margins, which shows he had a lot of crossover support from both sides.

The race would be lean D.

To be fair, Lipinski's 2018 victory margin was particularly inflated by the fact that his opponent was literally a Neo-Nazi. A more serious Republican nominee could have done better. I'll also add that despite the GOP trend, Newman managed to (slightly) outperform Biden in terms of her margin of victory - or at the least did not have the underperformance that many Democratic House candidates in competitive districts had.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bumping due to the recent news about redistricting.

[junior chįmp]

Bumping due to the recent news about redistricting.

Lol

[Calthrina950]

I would still give the advantage to Newman, but redistricting certainly has made this district more competitive than it was previously.

[Jamison5]

When I saw this thread I assume it was new and so I picked Lipinski based on the new proposed map. Under the current lines it would be very competitive.

[beesley]

There is no reason at all why Lipinski would run as a Republican beyond pure careerism, but under the newly-released lines, he could win. I'd still favour Newman though.

[GALeftist]

Newman would still be favored

[Progressive Pessimist]

Newman very likely win.

How would Lipinski win the Republican nomination? Does he start to embrace their cult leader?

Yes. That's all he has to do. Just look at Van Drew. Everything about a past voting record is forgiven so long as they give their pound of flesh to DT Barnum.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Newman very likely win.

How would Lipinski win the Republican nomination? Does he start to embrace their cult leader?

Yes. That's all he has to do. Just look at Van Drew. Everything about a past voting record is forgiven so long as they give their pound of flesh to DT Barnum.

Lipinski already voted once to impeach Trump. No way he forgives that.

[S019]

Lipinski would probably win under the new lines