Rate KY-GOV 2023

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate Kentucky’s 2023 Governor’s race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't got a single poll from this race because they are only polling Prez states it's Tilt D Beshear hasn't had a scandal

[wesmoorenerd]

Tossup/Tilt R for now. Far, far too many unknowns to come to a more confident rating at the moment. We don't know what the national environment will be like, nor do we know who emerges from the primary (although Cameron is probably favored.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup/Tilt R for now. Far, far too many unknowns to come to a more confident rating at the moment. We don't know what the national environment will be like, nor do we know who emerges from the primary (although Cameron is probably favored.)

Beshear should not be underestimated neither should Ryan Brown and Manchin and Tester it's called Populist or Working class in Red Appalachian Grover Cleveland was a DIXIECRAT not Secularist in Cleveland, OH but in today's standards not during Apartheid he would be pragmatic

VA was a red state until Warner and instead of DIXIECRAT it's called Pragmatism

That's why Ryan is winning by 3 and Nan W is losing by 15 she won't lose that much but by 7, she's not Working class blue dog she is a liberal female

[Coldstream]

I wouldn’t put it past Trump to endorse some headcase against Cameron as an FU to McConnell who then blows the GE.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wouldn’t put it past Trump to endorse some headcase against Cameron as an FU to McConnell who then blows the GE.

Matt Bevin again

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R. Beshear is fairly popular, and I could see something like a successful handling of another natural disaster before the election delivering a narrow win, but I am not optimistic about any Democrat's chances in the state.

I suppose I can be more sure if I know the nominee, he could probably have a better chance in a Bevin rematch or against Cameron, but it's really up in the air to me right now, and someone more generic than those two would be much more favored against Beshear.

[Roll Roons]

The most important takeaway from last night is that candidate quality absolutely matters. And there is no better candidate than a very popular incumbent, which Beshear is.

Will he face a tough race? Yes. But I'm not willing to call him an underdog this far out.

[Hope For A New Era]

Tossup/Tilt D is my "gun-to-head" answer, but really it's just far too early to try to predict this.

However, those making predictions should remember that popular incumbent governors very rarely lose.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tossup/Tilt D.
But this is very early.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think this is probably different than Louisiana, where the seat is flipping regardless of what Democrats do or who Republicans nominate (unless they pull something like nominating David Duke), but Beshear is a heavy underdog to almost every possible Republican. There is still a path to victory for him that there isn't for a hypothetical Democrat in Louisiana, and that's why I can't rate this one beyond Likely R.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, it's too early. Beshear seems popular while KY remains a solid red state.

If forced to chose, I'd say Tilt D.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R.

[Senator Spark]

Toss-up/Tilt R. We have to see how things go after the midterms.

[Calthrina950]

Lean R.

This exactly. I'm not prepared to rule Beshear out completely, given that I was one of those who thought it was impossible for him to win in 2019. But I do think he is an underdog. His win over Bevin came in unique circumstances.

[TDAS04]

Tilt R I guess.

Elliott County will be interesting to watch.

[Xing]

Tilt/Lean R. Beshear could be popular enough to hang on, but Cameron will definitely be a tougher opponent than Bevin was.

[Schiff for Senate]

Elliott County will be interesting to watch.

This. Other than that, too early for any real predictions to be made. Ask me again after the GOP has nominated a candidate; we’ll have a clearer picture by then for sure.

[Suburbia]

Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D