Which of these seats are Republicans most likely to win in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

A counterpart to the other thread about Democrats. Which of the four seats is most likely to be won by a Republican in 2024?

[Left Wing]

Easily Florida

[S019]

Ohio

[Young Conservative]

In order (if Cruz runs):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Montanna
4. Ohio

In order (if Cruz does not run):
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Montana
4. Ohio

Hard to see them losing any of these though if its Desantis Versus Kamala.

[S019]

In order (if Cruz runs):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Montanna
4. Ohio
5.

In order (if Cruz does not run):
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Montana
4. Ohio
5.

This overrates incumbency way too much. Brown is not going survive Ohio voting for the Republican by 10+ points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX Cruz is safe

[Young Conservative]

In order (if Cruz runs):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Montanna
4. Ohio

In order (if Cruz does not run):
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Montana
4. Ohio

This overrates incumbency way too much. Brown is not going survive Ohio voting for the Republican by 10+ points.

I said I did not think any of them was going to lose, but I stand by this statement because incumbency does limit the ability to select a worse candidate and the lack of a GOP incumbent still provides the uncertainty of the R candidate, i.e, a Todd Akin situation.

[S019]

In order (if Cruz runs):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Montanna
4. Ohio

In order (if Cruz does not run):
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Montana
4. Ohio

This overrates incumbency way too much. Brown is not going survive Ohio voting for the Republican by 10+ points.

I said I did not think any of them was going to lose, but I stand by this statement because incumbency does limit the ability to select a worse candidate and the lack of a GOP incumbent still provides the uncertainty of the R candidate, i.e, a Todd Akin situation.

Even Gym Jordan would probably beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio in 2024, the state has zoomed far to the right, Brown is going to get nowhere near the amount of crossover he has in the past, in 2012 (last time he was on a presidential ticket), he only did like 3 points better than Obama. I expect something similar with Republicans winning OH presidentially by double digits and Brown losing by mid to high single digits. FL and TX will vote left of OH and in a polarized era, that matters more than stuff like "incumbency" or "candidate quality."

[MT Treasurer]

"Hot" take: Ohio. I don’t buy that Brown is going to outperform Biden/Harris by close to double digits, and FL/TX will be considerably closer than OH at the presidential level.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Sherrod Brown is among the strongest of the Red state incumbents, and he’s far more likely to win than, eg, Rick Scott is to lose.

That might not be saying much, but picking him over TX and FL is silly.

[Xing]

Florida, though it’s close.

[Non Swing Voter]

If MT Treasurer is a solid representation of Montana voters the party of Trump should have it in the bag. 

Not sure why West Virginia isn't an option though.

[ultraviolet]

This overrates incumbency way too much. Brown is not going survive Ohio voting for the Republican by 10+ points.

"Hot" take: Ohio. I don’t buy that Brown is going to outperform Biden/Harris by close to double digits, and FL/TX will be considerably closer than OH at the presidential level.

What about Montana??

[TML]

If MT Treasurer is a solid representation of Montana voters the party of Trump should have it in the bag. 

Not sure why West Virginia isn't an option though.

This is probably because most of us think that Manchin would only survive if Democrats are winning 500+ EVs nationwide.

[Xing]

If MT Treasurer is a solid representation of Montana voters the party of Trump should have it in the bag. 

Not sure why West Virginia isn't an option though.

This is probably because most of us think that Manchin would only survive if Democrats are winning 500+ EVs nationwide.

Yeah, WV is not only more likely to go Republican than any race in this poll, I'd argue even some other races like MS-SEN would go Democratic before WV-SEN.

[ElectionsGuy]

"Hot" take: Ohio. I don’t buy that Brown is going to outperform Biden/Harris by close to double digits, and FL/TX will be considerably closer than OH at the presidential level.

I've never understood why Brown overperforms by as much as he does. He's a party-line hack and way out of touch with his state, I think 2024 that'll catch up to him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

"Hot" take: Ohio. I don’t buy that Brown is going to outperform Biden/Harris by close to double digits, and FL/TX will be considerably closer than OH at the presidential level.

I've never understood why Brown overperforms by as much as he does. He's a party-line hack and way out of touch with his state, I think 2024 that'll catch up to him.

Because OH isnt a 9 pt state it's more like an R plus 4 state since Trump overperformed in Mahoning County

That's why Ryan has a 1/3 chance of winning due to Josh Mandel might win nomination and he did poorly in 2012

[Pericles]

Lean Montana due to partisanship, overperforming the top of the ticket by 15-20 points is harder than overperforming by 5-10 points. The 2020 results were an alarming sign for Montana Dems, it looks like the state down-ballot is trending R and is less inclined to split tickets.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Montana due to partisanship, overperforming the top of the ticket by 15-20 points is harder than overperforming by 5-10 points. The 2020 results were an alarming sign for Montana Dems, it looks like the state down-ballot is trending R and is less inclined to split tickets.

Tester won in a D PVI 4.0 Election in 2012 on split voting and Rosendale and Zinke aren't as popular as Daines, only Gianforte can beat Tester

[Calthrina950]

Lean Montana due to partisanship, overperforming the top of the ticket by 15-20 points is harder than overperforming by 5-10 points. The 2020 results were an alarming sign for Montana Dems, it looks like the state down-ballot is trending R and is less inclined to split tickets.

I'm still shocked that Bullock lost by double digits. The polls were certainly off in Montana, and it seems like the great surge in turnout there brought out a considerable number of right-leaning people who voted Republican down the line. Bullock still ran ahead of Biden, but by nowhere near enough to win.

[TML]

Lean Montana due to partisanship, overperforming the top of the ticket by 15-20 points is harder than overperforming by 5-10 points. The 2020 results were an alarming sign for Montana Dems, it looks like the state down-ballot is trending R and is less inclined to split tickets.

I'm still shocked that Bullock lost by double digits. The polls were certainly off in Montana, and it seems like the great surge in turnout there brought out a considerable number of right-leaning people who voted Republican down the line. Bullock still ran ahead of Biden, but by nowhere near enough to win.

That's right. This was reflected in the exit polls from MT - in 2018, the partisan composition of the MT electorate was 25D-29R-45I, whereas in 2020 it was 22D-38R-41I. Pollsters had assumed that the partisan composition of the MT electorate in 2020 would be similar to that in 2018, which would explain why 2020 polls were off by so much (and Tester's survival prospects in 2024 may depend a lot on whether the 2024 electorate in MT is closer to 2018 or 2020 in terms of partisan composition, since he would have lost by about 9 points if he had faced the 2020 electorate in terms of partisan composition and won the same shares of D/R/I voters as he actually did in 2018).