Hamilton County, Indiana (Carmel)

[Frenchrepublican]

I believe Trump will win by single digits this time around. It’s moving leftward very fast.

In a such case he is losing the election in a landslide (11 to 12 points loss probably).

[jamestroll]

I am very much not going to look at the downballot races in Hamilton County, Indiana in 2018. All they prove is that the county still is a Republican county..

but....

While this county is not demographically the type that will become a Democratic county it is the type of county that is very educated and politically aware. Despite the conservative lean it is worth noting the most federalized and partisan race in the state last year was nearly right at the state average.


Curtis Hill would likely lose this county to a credible Democrat next year and 2020 will be the year when Hamilton County finally cracks and is more Democratic compared to the state.

Best estimates and guesses for right now:

Indiana President

Trump 57
Democrat 41


Hamilton County

Trump 54
Democrat 44

[MT Treasurer]

I believe Trump will win by single digits this time around. It’s moving leftward very fast.

In a such case he is losing the election in a landslide (11 to 12 points loss probably).

No, because uniform swing isn’t real.

[Politician]

I believe Trump will win by single digits this time around. It’s moving leftward very fast.

In a such case he is losing the election in a landslide (11 to 12 points loss probably).

No, because uniform swing isn’t real.

Uniform trends aren't real either.

[pbrower2a]

This is one of the first affluent, suburban counties to close polls on Election Night, and may be a good early indicator of how Trump is doing among suburbanites who traditionally vote Republican, but are skeptical of Trump.

Bush 2000: 74.25%
Bush 2004: 74.24%
McCain 2008: 60.64%
Romney 2012: 66.20%
Trump 2016: 56.04%

My hunch is that if Trump can't get to 55% here, he's in trouble nationally, and if he can't win a majority, he's doomed.

That Trump did much worse in Hamilton County, Indiana than did Romney in 2012 may say more about Hamilton County than about America as a whole. It could be that Hamilton County is showing a trend in America as a whole -- only later. Suburbia used to be strongly R when it still had rural characteristics; as it becomes increasingly urban in quality it seems to be going D. Like other affluent communities it tends to show contempt for Trump's anti-intellectual demagoguery. This county does not have a particularly elderly population as is so in much of Florida...

More telling is a pattern for Indiana: that when the Republican wins the Electoral College, Indiana is not close, let alone a Democratic win. If the Republican is winning Indiana by 12% or more he is probably winning Ohio as well. Even in 2000 and 2016 when the Republican nominees lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote, Indiana was well into the double-digits. This pattern has held for a century and I see no reason for it to change.

So if you see a quick call of Indiana for Trump and he wins it by 8% when the votes of Fort Wayne, South Bend, and Indianapolis are largely in... Trump is in deep trouble. Hamilton County is probably now more D than Indiana as a whole.     

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is one of the first affluent, suburban counties to close polls on Election Night, and may be a good early indicator of how Trump is doing among suburbanites who traditionally vote Republican, but are skeptical of Trump.

Bush 2000: 74.25%
Bush 2004: 74.24%
McCain 2008: 60.64%
Romney 2012: 66.20%
Trump 2016: 56.04%

My hunch is that if Trump can't get to 55% here, he's in trouble nationally, and if he can't win a majority, he's doomed.

That Trump did much worse in Hamilton County, Indiana than did Romney in 2012 may say more about Hamilton County than about America as a whole. It could be that Hamilton County is showing a trend in America as a whole -- only later. Suburbia used to be strongly R when it still had rural characteristics; as it becomes increasingly urban in quality it seems to be going D. Like other affluent communities it tends to show contempt for Trump's anti-intellectual demagoguery. This county does not have a particularly elderly population as is so in much of Florida...

More telling is a pattern for Indiana: that when the Republican wins the Electoral College, Indiana is not close, let alone a Democratic win. If the Republican is winning Indiana by 12% or more he is probably winning Ohio as well. Even in 2000 and 2016 when the Republican nominees lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote, Indiana was well into the double-digits. This pattern has held for a century and I see no reason for it to change.

So if you see a quick call of Indiana for Trump and he wins it by 8% when the votes of Fort Wayne, South Bend, and Indianapolis are largely in... Trump is in deep trouble. Hamilton County is probably now more D than Indiana as a whole.     

If Trump can't break double digits in Indiana, Texas is slight-R, Georgia is lean-D, and the Democratic nominee's spouse is browsing swatches for the next White House redecoration.

[Suburbia]

55%-57%

Trump will win Hamilton County.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Anyways, I'd put his likely margin at ~57% (voted 57 to 60%, but there's a solid argument for 55 to 57% —I'm just a cynic ), or about what I expect him to carry Indiana by. For all the talk about how Hamilton County is trending left (and the gains made by the local Democratic Party should not be discounted —we were the only county to unseat a Republican State Senator last year, albeit with some help from Marion) that doesn't negate the fact that Republicans have the upper hand here, and I don't expect Indiana to be contested. If Buttigieg somehow becomes the nominee, though, I'd expect the margin to be significantly closer, though still wide (say ~52 to 55%).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Anyways, I'd put his likely margin at ~57% (voted 57 to 60%, but there's a solid argument for 55 to 57% —I'm just a cynic ), or about what I expect him to carry Indiana by. For all the talk about how Hamilton County is trending left (and the gains made by the local Democratic Party should not be discounted —we were the only county to unseat a Republican State Senator last year, albeit with some help from Marion) that doesn't negate the fact that Republicans have the upper hand here, and I don't expect Indiana to be contested. If Buttigieg somehow becomes the nominee, though, I'd expect the margin to be significantly closer, though still wide (say ~52 to 55%).

This sounds realistic. I wouldn't read a whole lot if Hamilton comes back in that range. If it comes in below 55% however, I will start to be a lot more optimistic about the night.

I don't think Hamilton is genuinely trending D. I think Hamilton is the sort of place where Trumpism is particularly unpopular with some voters who ordinarily vote GOP but are willing to mix it up. Also, areas like Meridian Hills are definitely trending left, and while I don't expect that trend to bleed north, it wouldn't completely shock me.

When GOP normality resumes, I expect Hamilton to trend back to the right, though not so much that they will ever vote 75% for a GOP president ever again.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This thread didn't age all that badly, other than the fact that I and others underestimated the D trend there. The final result:

Trump: 52.36% (-3.68% from 2016)
Biden: 45.56% (+8.84% from Clinton 2016!)

If you showed me these numbers the day before the election, I would have assumed Biden won Iowa, Ohio, and had a good shot at Texas. Especially given what the polls right before the election were saying. But trends, as they say, are often real.

I currently rate Hamilton County, IN as a pure tossup for 2024.

[AGA]

People here have a lot of crow to eat.

[Alcibiades]

People here have a lot of crow to eat.

Yeah, MT Treasurer got criticised by several people for predicting what turned out to be almost the exact result.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Anyways, I'd put his likely margin at ~57% (voted 57 to 60%, but there's a solid argument for 55 to 57% —I'm just a cynic ), or about what I expect him to carry Indiana by. For all the talk about how Hamilton County is trending left (and the gains made by the local Democratic Party should not be discounted —we were the only county to unseat a Republican State Senator last year, albeit with some help from Marion) that doesn't negate the fact that Republicans have the upper hand here, and I don't expect Indiana to be contested. If Buttigieg somehow becomes the nominee, though, I'd expect the margin to be significantly closer, though still wide (say ~52 to 55%).

Well, it's good to know me from two years ago can still be surprised!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

People here have a lot of crow to eat.

Yeah, MT Treasurer got criticised by several people for predicting what turned out to be almost the exact result.

He absolutely deserves accolades:

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

The result in Hamilton itself didn't surprise me that much, though I thought it would be more like 54/42. What shocked me is that Hamilton in 2016 was almost identical to Indiana as a whole, but in 2020 it was 10 points to the left of the state!

Living in Indy for the past six years and watching local and state elections, I knew Hamilton was moving left. But trending 10 points left of the state in just four years is remarkable. It's a growing county, but it's not growing enough to explain that kind of shift. This is proof positive of just how big a suburbs problem the GOP faces.

[Roll Roons]

There's one thing that seems certain - whether or not they flip, Hamilton, IN and Delaware, OH will vote almost identically in 2024.

It's kind of weird how similar they are in almost every way. Both are right in the center of their states and just north of the largest city/state capital. Both are the richest counties in their respective states, with the southern halves being more suburban and the northern halves being more rural. And neither has voted for a Democrat since Woodrow Wilson, but both went to Trump by around 7 points. I really cannot think of two counties of over 100K in different states that are more similar.

[Alben Barkley]

There's one thing that seems certain - whether or not they flip, Hamilton, IN and Delaware, OH will vote almost identically in 2024.

It's kind of weird how similar they are in almost every way. Both are right in the center of their states and just north of the largest city/state capital. Both are the richest counties in their respective states, with the southern halves being more suburban and the northern halves being more rural. And neither has voted for a Democrat since Woodrow Wilson, but both went to Trump by around 7 points. I really cannot think of two counties of over 100K in different states that are more similar.

The Columbus and Indianapolis metro areas in general are freakishly similar.

Anyway, I expect both will probably flip in 2024. Especially if the GOP puts up Cruz or something, or any kind of Trump-esque/MAGA candidate. Only if they go with someone like Romney, Hogan, maybe Haley will they be able to undo some of their losses in places like this.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There's one thing that seems certain - whether or not they flip, Hamilton, IN and Delaware, OH will vote almost identically in 2024.

It's kind of weird how similar they are in almost every way. Both are right in the center of their states and just north of the largest city/state capital. Both are the richest counties in their respective states, with the southern halves being more suburban and the northern halves being more rural. And neither has voted for a Democrat since Woodrow Wilson, but both went to Trump by around 7 points. I really cannot think of two counties of over 100K in different states that are more similar.

The only major difference I can see is that Columbus has OSU. If Butler University were 10x the size it currently is, in the same area of Indy, then you'd have a carbon copy.

In the Indiana "donut counties" it seems like "corporate woke" culture is either driving this change, or being driven by it. Probably a little of both. Eli Lilly, Salesforce, and my own employer have pretty much rejected all Trump narratives concerning COVID and BLM, and are enacting their own social distancing guidelines and diversity/inclusion efforts. While rural Hoosiers are throwing a fit because retailers are making them wear masks, we've all been working from home since March, and if we do have to go in, there are strict distance, mask, and hand sanitation requirements.

As the Trump administration and state governments failed to adequately respond to the crisis, it's been the corporate, white-collar world that has filled in the gap. That kind of culture is contagious. It has probably accelerated trends that already existed.

The GOP cannot continue as the party of rural America. They've been kept viable thanks to massive structural advantages in the Senate and Electoral College. I think Trump was just as much a symptom of the party's decline as it was a cause. Corporate America abandoning the party would have been unthinkable before Trump. Now it seems inevitable. Unless something changes - and fast - it's going to be a while before they control all of Congress and the White House.

[Tintrlvr]

The Columbus and Indianapolis metro areas in general are freakishly similar.

Similar in current political alignment anyway. Despite the similarities between Hamilton and Delaware Counties, white voters in Columbus are significantly more Democratic than white voters in Indianapolis. (Franklin County is 21% black, but Marion County is 27% black, with Marion marginally less Democratic than Franklin.) That's indicative of actually fairly significant cultural differences between the two.

[KaiserDave]

MT Treasurer was attacked by the usual suspects and was right as often

[Chips]

There's one thing that seems certain - whether or not they flip, Hamilton, IN and Delaware, OH will vote almost identically in 2024.

It's kind of weird how similar they are in almost every way. Both are right in the center of their states and just north of the largest city/state capital. Both are the richest counties in their respective states, with the southern halves being more suburban and the northern halves being more rural. And neither has voted for a Democrat since Woodrow Wilson, but both went to Trump by around 7 points. I really cannot think of two counties of over 100K in different states that are more similar.

This.

[Niemeyerite]

People here have a lot of crow to eat.

Crow bourguignon or crêpe de crow.