Will Brian Fitzpatrick run for Senate in 2022?

[VAR]

In light of Fitzpatrick voting against impeachment, I feel like this is an important question to ask.

[smoltchanov]

May be. By voting this way he improved chances in primary, but - substantially lowered them in general..

[wbrocks67]

May be. By voting this way he improved chances in primary, but - substantially lowered them in general..

Yeah, he now pisses off both sides here so not sure what the play is.

[😥]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

[smoltchanov]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

Typical irony for centrists: they have few chances in both parties primaries because of ideologizations of the parties, and only slightly more in general election because of waning split ticket vote... Sad.

[Left Wing]

I think there’s just a good a chance he runs for governor. He would probably lose that primary as well. He’s staked out too many moderate positions on guns and other issues.

[wbrocks67]

I think there’s just a good a chance he runs for governor. He would probably lose that primary as well. He’s staked out too many moderate positions on guns and other issues.

I would love to see Shapiro smoke him in a Gov run

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Probably no, and if he did, he'd get shellacked in the primary.

[cafaulait37]

I think he's probably just going to keep his house seat.

[Calthrina950]

Probably no, and if he did, he'd get shellacked in the primary.

I still don't understand why Fitzpatrick voted against impeachment. He could have easily held his House seat, and his chances of winning a statewide primary weren't particularly great even before the vote. By doing this, he's upset Democrats who thought that he was "reasonable" and "moderate", and who split their tickets for him last year. And many Republicans will continue to regard him as a RINO because of his stances on other issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is the Fav should he run, even if Fitzpatrick jumps in

[MT Treasurer]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

Why exactly would he be doomed in a general election in a swing state in what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm?

In any case, Fitzpatrick (unlike Costello) isn’t as much of a RINO or as unpopular among the R base as people here make him out to be, so I’m not even sure I buy him being doomed in a primary (although he likely wouldn’t be favored).

[KaiserDave]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

Why exactly would he be doomed in a general election in a swing state in what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm?

In any case, Fitzpatrick (unlike Costello) isn’t as much of a RINO or as unpopular among the R base as people here make him out to be.

He's got an F from the NRA, which I think will hurt him badly.

I agree 100% that Fitzpatrick is a serious candidate (unlike Costello), but I don't see him winning the nomination for U.S. Senate, especially after he's alienated all sides involved on the Trump debate. Potentially in a less extreme gubernatorial primary though.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

Why exactly would he be doomed in a general election in a swing state in what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm?

In any case, Fitzpatrick (unlike Costello) isn’t as much of a RINO or as unpopular among the R base as people here make him out to be.

He's got an F from the NRA, which I think will hurt him badly.

I agree 100% that Fitzpatrick is a serious candidate (unlike Costello), but I don't see him winning the nomination for U.S. Senate, especially after he's alienated all sides involved on the Trump debate. Potentially in a less extreme gubernatorial primary though.

The weirder part here is the idea that Fitzpatrick (or any generic R) couldn’t win a Senate race in PA even in a GOP wave environment or that he has 'lowered' his GE chances with his impeachment vote.

[KaiserDave]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

Why exactly would he be doomed in a general election in a swing state in what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm?

In any case, Fitzpatrick (unlike Costello) isn’t as much of a RINO or as unpopular among the R base as people here make him out to be.

He's got an F from the NRA, which I think will hurt him badly.

I agree 100% that Fitzpatrick is a serious candidate (unlike Costello), but I don't see him winning the nomination for U.S. Senate, especially after he's alienated all sides involved on the Trump debate. Potentially in a less extreme gubernatorial primary though.

The weirder part here is the idea that Fitzpatrick (or any generic R) couldn’t win a Senate race in PA even in a GOP wave environment or that he has 'lowered' his GE chances with his impeachment vote.

Yes of course. I consider this race Tilt D, but Tilt D is still just Tilt D. This race in my view is a real tossup. My head says it goes down to the wire, my pessimistic heart says the last poll is Fetterman +6 and he loses by 2.

The Republicans have a very weak bench in Pennsylvania, the Democrats have a very good one. People like Scott Perry and Guy Reschenthaler could win statewide, but I'd say they are risky bets, especially against Fetterman, Cartwright, or Houlahan. Fortunately for the PAGOP, Garrity and DeFoor will be running for higher offices soon.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Probably yes, but he will be doomed in both, Republican primary and general election

Why exactly would he be doomed in a general election in a swing state in what is likely to be a R-leaning midterm?

In any case, Fitzpatrick (unlike Costello) isn’t as much of a RINO or as unpopular among the R base as people here make him out to be.

He's got an F from the NRA, which I think will hurt him badly.

I agree 100% that Fitzpatrick is a serious candidate (unlike Costello), but I don't see him winning the nomination for U.S. Senate, especially after he's alienated all sides involved on the Trump debate. Potentially in a less extreme gubernatorial primary though.

The weirder part here is the idea that Fitzpatrick (or any generic R) couldn’t win a Senate race in PA even in a GOP wave environment or that he has 'lowered' his GE chances with his impeachment vote.

1. Fetterman is a solid candidate

2. Fitzpatrick is a good candidate for swing voters not a good candidate for Republicans. Would likely lose the primary to a Trump-like candidate or will require the GOP's help. In an election, I am sure the GOP will be trying to fend off many primary challengers elseware.

3. We're not sure what the dynamics will be like in 2022. We don't know what Biden will be able to get passed or the GOP relationship with Trump.

4. Plus thre is always the possibility of Republicans nominating a complete fool.

[Badger]

Duh.

[MoreThanPolitics]

I think his vote against impeachment is showing early signs of a 2022 senate run, but I still think he'll go nowhere

[UncleSam]

Absolutely he will and he would be very tough for any Dem to beat in a general. His problem is that he will need to beat a Trumpier congressman in the primary, and that’ll be an uphill battle for him. I think he loses the primary but anyone who thinks he won’t even be competitive is living in a delusion. He’s a popular congressman from a swing district who continually outperforms the party baseline there.

[PAK Man]

I think he'll stay put. Clearly he's a perfect fit for his district, despite it being so Democratic-leaning, and Democrats can't seem to get a quality candidate to go against him. Honestly, he could stay in that seat for as long as he wants at this point.