Rate GA-SEN 2022 with Warnock

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate Georgia’s senate election in 2022 with Raphael Warnock.

[Figueira]

I guess he starts as a slight favorite maybe, but it would probably be the Republicans' best pickup opportunity. 2022 has the potential to be a reverse 2018, except the Republicans will likely win/keep the Senate given their starting position.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Easier to hold than AZ, NH with Sununu or NV with Sandoval.

[Red Wall]

Easier to hold than AZ, NH with Sununu or NV with Sandoval.

All these states are more dem than Georgia so nope. Yes Sununu could win by more given how elastic NH is and how popular he is but Senate races are the most nationalized and partisan dependent of any office in the US (yes even more than president). So if dems are losing NH they lost AZ and GA already. Same for Nevada and Sandoval I just used NH as.an example because it's more elastic.

[Orser67]

I think he would be the one incumbent who starts out as an underdog. Lean R (although certainly closer to tossup than likely).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Easier to hold than AZ, NH with Sununu or NV with Sandoval.

All these states are more dem than Georgia so nope. Yes Sununu could win by more given how elastic NH is and how popular he is but Senate races are the most nationalized and partisan dependent of any office in the US (yes even more than president). So if dems are losing NH they lost AZ and GA already. Same for Nevada and Sandoval I just used NH as.an example because it's more elastic.

GA continued to march towards the Democrats in previous Democratic midterms; no such luck there with almost any other state and no reason to expect GA to stop doing this. It is an incredibly polarised state with almost nil persuadable voters and trends are powered primarily by demographic shifts which are still underway and should be expected to continue through 2022. If there is a Republican backlash as is likely, I'd expect the swing to be smallest in GA (in fact, I think it's more likely than not to swing Democratic regardless of who is president) and certainly not so large as to put the seat in more jeopardy than any of these other places.

[RRusso1982]

My analysis: I think in the runoffs, both Perdue and Loeffler have the advantage.  Even if Biden ends up eking out Georgia, it will be by around half a point.  It looks like Perdue will end up at around 49.5%.  All he needs is a few voters who voted for the Libertarian to break for him in the runoff.  And in the special, the Republicans combined got more votes than the Democrats.  I think that the Democrats need to run on this: "Biden is going to be President.  The Democrats will control the house.  Do you really want to give the Democrats unchecked power?"  I think that will play well.  I know that in the Atlanta suburbs, Trump did badly, but I think it was more anti Trump than anti Republican.  I think a lot of these voters, all things equal, would have preferred to vote Republican.  I think they may like the idea of a Republican Senate as a check on Biden now that it's a done deal that Trump is out.  Plus, ever time an election goes to a runoff in Georgia, historically the Democrats always do worse in the runoff than in the general.  Usually, African Americans don't turn out as much in the runoff.

[RI]

Warnock has some serious baggage which hasn't been fully exploited yet...

[Gracile]

Tossup. If there's one state that could buck a Republican wave, it's this one.

[lfromnj]

Warnock has some serious baggage which hasn't been fully exploited yet...

Yeah heard of that but if he wins anyway he stays quiet.

[Tekken_Guy]

My analysis: I think in the runoffs, both Perdue and Loeffler have the advantage.  Even if Biden ends up eking out Georgia, it will be by around half a point.  It looks like Perdue will end up at around 49.5%.  All he needs is a few voters who voted for the Libertarian to break for him in the runoff.  And in the special, the Republicans combined got more votes than the Democrats.  I think that the Democrats need to run on this: "Biden is going to be President.  The Democrats will control the house.  Do you really want to give the Democrats unchecked power?"  I think that will play well.  I know that in the Atlanta suburbs, Trump did badly, but I think it was more anti Trump than anti Republican.  I think a lot of these voters, all things equal, would have preferred to vote Republican.  I think they may like the idea of a Republican Senate as a check on Biden now that it's a done deal that Trump is out.  Plus, ever time an election goes to a runoff in Georgia, historically the Democrats always do worse in the runoff than in the general.  Usually, African Americans don't turn out as much in the runoff.

Huh?

[😥]

Pure Tossup. More likely to flip than AZ, but less likely than NH

[hyouzel the predictor]

Warnock has some serious baggage which hasn't been fully exploited yet...

?? What happened

[RI]

Warnock has some serious baggage which hasn't been fully exploited yet...

?? What happened

Let's start with the time he was arrested and charged with obstructing an investigation into child abuse at a church camp.

[Xing]

If it's a typical midterm, it probably starts as Tilt R, but Warnock could hold on, given the trend in GA. Even if Warnock wins, I'd still say NH is the most likely pickup for Republicans.

[Suburbia]

Tossup

Georgia is a tossup

[Rookie Yinzer]

Toss-Up/Tilt D

Especially with Abrams running a rematch. The last two cycles has shown that most of y’all are completely off base when it comes to this state. LOL.