Rate Cobb County GA 2020 Sen Race GE Perdue vs Ossoff

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm thinking like 79-17 Perdue, safe R. His second best county besides Gwinnett.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

yo can I have a smoke of what you got because it must be strong sh**t

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

yo can I have a smoke of what you got because it must be strong sh**t

dude, it's an atlas meme

[Skunk]

[skbl17]

Hey, I think I've heard of that county! * looks around house *

As a serious answer, Safe D. I think the Biden/Trump and Perdue/Ossoff two-party numbers here will be very close, with Biden doing a hair better.

I'm thinking Biden gets 57-58% here (better than Abrams but not quite 60%,) so this race will probably end up something like 55-45 Ossoff.

[GALeftist]

Adamantium Perdue tbh imo. Biden will probably win this county but Perdue has enough personal appeal I suspect that it will be a South Carolina 1936 type election tbqh imho.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I had this at safe R a few weeks ago but I've had to shift it to likely R because of soybeangate's all-the-way-downballot coattails.

[WD]

safe r imo perdue probably cracks 90% tbh

[Gracile]

It's Safe D, of course.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In all seriousness, if the race goes to a runoff due to GA's 50% law, I would expect a pretty significant swing to the losing party of the presidential race, especially in the suburbs.  I could even see Perdue flipping it back to Republican in a runoff if Biden wins.

[skbl17]

In all seriousness, if the race goes to a runoff due to GA's 50% law, I would expect a pretty significant swing to the losing party of the presidential race, especially in the suburbs.  I could even see Perdue flipping it back to Republican in a runoff if Biden wins.

While I do see a bit of a swing to the GOP, I think Perdue actually winning Cobb in a runoff is very unlikely.

To start with, the last Senate runoff in December 2008 resulted in a 63.6% win for Saxby Chambliss in Cobb, a 7.9% improvement from the 55.7% he got in Cobb in November 2008. November 2008 voter turnout in Cobb County was 79.6%, but turnout in the runoff was 46.4%, a drop of 33.2%.

In December 2018, when both the Secretary of State and Public Service Commission (District 3) races went to runoffs, turnout similarly collapsed (64% to 25% in Cobb, a drop of 39%), but Cobb voters split their tickets:

- Brad Raffensperger (R) won the Secretary of State race in the county by 875 votes (50.4%). He got 45.8% of the two-party vote in the general, meaning that he posted a 4.6% improvement between the general and the runoff.

- Linda Miller (D) won the PSC race in the county by 1,304 votes (50.5%). The incumbent, Chuck Eaton (R), again lost the county but posted a 4.5% improvement between the general and the runoff.

An improvement for the Republican candidates for sure, but not nearly as dramatic an improvement as in 2008, even though the setup was similar: high enthusiasm among Dems for a top-ticket candidate who would go on to lose Georgia in the general (Barack Obama and Stacey Abrams) that faded after the general elections concluded, leaving runoff candidates "in the cold", so to speak.

The issue is that compared to 2008, Democrats are doing better with college-educated white voters in metro Atlanta, especially those living closer in to the perimeter (Interstate 285,) who are more likely to turn out in runoffs versus minority voters. In 2018, there were a fair number of precincts in Vinings, Sandy Springs, and Dunwoody (all top-end, historically Republican suburbs) where the Democrats actually improved in their vote shares between the general and the runoff, despite the lack of a widely-expected gubernatorial runoff and the overall collapse in turnout.

Plus, Perdue has a bit of a favorability problem, at least if Civiqs is any indication. He's not Chambliss, Eaton, or Raffensperger, all Republicans who voters either approved of or were totally ambivalent about.

If the race does go to a runoff and turnout collapses to December 2018 numbers, I still expect Ossoff to win Cobb, if by a reduced margin. County-wide, Cobb's not truly that much more Republican than Gwinnett, and Gwinnett stayed Dem throughout the entire 2018 election cycle, low-turnout runoffs included.

[lfromnj]

I hate the stupid comparisons to the 2008 election, the changes since then which are mainly the education shift will greatly lessen the turnout disadvantage Democrats had in the 2008 special election.
Higher education voters are more likely to turnout, in 2008 I actually think Martin lost educated voters overall.

 In 2008 Martin got like 30% of the vote in Glascock county prerunoff which Abrams didn't even break 10% in, while barely even touching 20% in Forsyth county.

[skbl17]

I hate the stupid comparisons to the 2008 election, the changes since then which are mainly the education shift will greatly lessen the turnout disadvantage Democrats had in the 2008 special election.
Higher education voters are more likely to turnout, in 2008 I actually think Martin lost educated voters overall.

 In 2008 Martin got like 30% of the vote in Glascock county prerunoff which Abrams didn't even break 10% in, while barely even touching 20% in Forsyth county.

To be fair, that was the point I was trying to make in my post. And yeah, I agree that 2008 comparisons are annoying, but considering that was the last Senate runoff we've had in this state, it's still useful, if only to reiterate that Georgia circa 2018/2020 is a different place from 2008, even in a runoff situation.

My biggest peeve is when people ignore December 2018 and take 2008 as gospel, as if how Georgia voted in December 2008 will be useful in determining how Georgia will vote in January 2021, all while ignoring a more useful analog from two years ago, not 12.

[lfromnj]

I hate the stupid comparisons to the 2008 election, the changes since then which are mainly the education shift will greatly lessen the turnout disadvantage Democrats had in the 2008 special election.
Higher education voters are more likely to turnout, in 2008 I actually think Martin lost educated voters overall.

 In 2008 Martin got like 30% of the vote in Glascock county prerunoff which Abrams didn't even break 10% in, while barely even touching 20% in Forsyth county.

To be fair, that was the point I was trying to make in my post. And yeah, I agree that 2008 comparisons are annoying, but considering that was the last Senate runoff we've had in this state, it's still useful, if only to reiterate that Georgia circa 2018/2020 is a different place from 2008, even in a runoff situation.

My biggest peeve is when people ignore December 2018 and take 2008 as gospel, as if how Georgia voted in December 2008 will be useful in determining how Georgia will vote in January 2021, all while ignoring a more useful analog from two years ago, not 12.

Wasn't replying to your post but thank you for also mentioning it, I still think runoff turnout with no other considerations would generally still slightly hurt Dems but on a much lower level(thinking around half a point on average) and it could also work in reverse.

[QAnonKelly]

In all seriousness, if the race goes to a runoff due to GA's 50% law, I would expect a pretty significant swing to the losing party of the presidential race, especially in the suburbs.  I could even see Perdue flipping it back to Republican in a runoff if Biden wins.

Lmao

[here2view]

Safe R, Perdue gets 104% of the vote.

[S019]

Safe D

[forsythvoter]

I could see myself voting for Perdue in the runoff if Biden won and it decided control of the senate. However, if Ds win the senate next Tuesday, I actually think I would probably prefer at least one of GA's senators to be in the majority party so that GA stays relevant.

In the unlikely event Trump wins on Tuesday, I'm almost certain I will vote straight Dem in any runoff.

I hate the stupid comparisons to the 2008 election, the changes since then which are mainly the education shift will greatly lessen the turnout disadvantage Democrats had in the 2008 special election.
Higher education voters are more likely to turnout, in 2008 I actually think Martin lost educated voters overall.

 In 2008 Martin got like 30% of the vote in Glascock county prerunoff which Abrams didn't even break 10% in, while barely even touching 20% in Forsyth county.

[Xing]

Almost as Titanium R as Fort Bend and Tarrant in TX-SEN.

[WD]

Almost as Titanium R as Fort Bend and Tarrant in TX-SEN.

imo Cornyn wins TX-7 by more than TX-1 imo

[Bootes Void]

Very Safe Purdue. You people are weak. Purdue will get 200% of the vote. He is well lovd in the suburb that people will vote twice for him to counteract with his very low support in rural #populist Georgia