is the race tightening?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 538 polling average has decreased from Biden + 10.7% to Biden + 9.2% the last few days, which is a pretty significant shift considering how stable this race has otherwise been.. We're seeing something simillar on RCP, and my model has also narrowed a bit. Now, don't get me wrong, Joe Biden is still in a really good position, and being up "only" by 9.2% is still great, but this begs the question is this just noise, or indicative of Trump making a comeback? I'm really curious to see what the batch of post-debate national polls will say about the race. What do you make of it?

[hyouzel the predictor]

The 538 polling average has decreased from Biden + 10.7% to Biden + 9.2% the last few days, which is a pretty significant shift considering how stable this race has otherwise been.. We're seeing something simillar on RCP, and my model has also narrowed a bit. Now, don't get me wrong, Joe Biden is still in a really good position, and being up "only" by 9.2% is still great, but this begs the question is this just noise, or indicative of Trump making a comeback? I'm really curious to see what the batch of post-debate national polls will say about the race. What do you make of it?

I think Nate Silver said something about USCDornsife and another poll being taken out of the average which brought it down by nearly a point but I could be wrong.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The 538 drop is due to older good polls dropping out then any shift in current polling according to Nate

[Roll Roons]

It does seem to be tightening slightly, but I'm not surprised. Some Republicans who were spooked by the first debate/Trump's COVID diagnosis were going to come home anyway. Biden's lead nationally and in most of the critical states is big enough to withstand it.

[Ferguson97]

It could be, but it's more likely due to herding.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, the question is whether it affects the Senate races or not.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Isn't this the time when Republicans will allegedly "come home" to Trump?

It was always part of that "By Election Day, the race won't tighten but it will tighten" narrative.

Even before the Comey Letter, it felt like 2016 was tightening quite a bit after the 3rd debate. Now? Not really.

I doubt we're gonna see anything drastic like the national race going from Biden +10 to Biden +6 in a week. And even then, too many votes are banked for a late tightening to have a full impact (Unless you believe in polling errors that only benefit Trump)

[Buzz]

Yes, but it won't change the end result.  Nobody was ever going to win an election by 10 points, c'mon now!

[Hammy]

Reversion to the mean if anything. The inflated polls after Trump's covid diagnosis are falling out of the polling timeframes.

[Rand]

Remember we had a couple days where pollsters shat nothing but a slew of low-quality, pre-debate Trump polls. Could literally hear each one plop and splash in the next room.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Trump needed a vaccine to get that rally around the flag that Bush W got. But, Reagan funeral also rallied Conservatives that year, in 2004

Trump is set to lose in abour 1 week from Tuesday. The question is will Congress pass a lame duck stimulus in time for Xmas and the other stimulus gets passed in Jan 2021, there is a CR due in December

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Joe Biden has won 53 of the last 54 national polls certified by RealClearPolitics.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

This is not what a tightening race looks like.

[wbrocks67]

Remember we had a couple days where pollsters shat nothing but a slew of low-quality, pre-debate Trump polls. Could literally hear each one plop and splash in the next room.

This. Why do people act so god damn stupid on this forum? We go thru this every f**king couple of weeks, where we have a drought of high quality polls and the averages get screwed up a bit. It's like people here have no common sense.

[Buzz]

Remember we had a couple days where pollsters shat nothing but a slew of low-quality, pre-debate Trump polls. Could literally hear each one plop and splash in the next room.

This. Why do people act so god damn stupid on this forum? We go thru this every f**king couple of weeks, where we have a drought of high quality polls and the averages get screwed up a bit. It's like people here have no common sense.

Wrong.  People have enough common sense to know that Biden wasn't going to win by 10+ points.  You can keep calling people stupid, but its going to be you and your god awful takes.

[MikeIrvine]

I don't know if it is tightening as much as some his soft support coming back after his Covid diagnosis

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, the question is whether it affects the Senate races or not.

The Republicans obviously scheduled Barrett's confirmation vote to affect that.