Will Biden do better with White Voters in Michigan or Virginia

[OSR stands with Israel]

This was 2016:



Source : https://www.whitdem.org/2016WhiteVote.html


For me since I have Biden winning Michigan by 4 and Virginia by around 11.5, I still have this at Michigan narrowly

[Bootes Void]

Michigan I would say

[mileslunn]

Michigan.  Obama won white voters in Michigan in 2008 and while I doubt Biden wins them, I suspect, Trump gets under 55% amongst whites in Michigan.  For Virginia, GOP usually gets around 60% and since it has a larger non-white population, Trump could get 60% of whites and would still lose state.  He needs around 65% of whites to flip state.  Now I do believe Biden will get over 40% of whites in Virginia which Democrats haven't achieved in a long time.  Overall does better in Virginia than Michigan, but amongst whites worse.

[Xing]

Virginia, and I feel pretty confident about that.

[Indy Texas]

Michigan.

Most white people in Virginia are not college graduates in Arlington and Fairfax.

And the crazy thing about Trump's reelection campaign is how little it offers to the secular, downmarket Northern Whites who allowed him to win states like Michigan in the first place.

Those people don't care about SCOTUS judges because they don't care about abortion and are probably some very disinterested version of pro-choice.

They don't care about tax cuts because they're not rich enough to benefit from them.

They voted for him because they thought he was going to "take care of everybody" and make GM reopen the plants. Well, four years later and the plants are still closing and Trump's administration is busy filing lawsuits to take away their healthcare.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Rust-belt factory workers are gonna come home to Joe.  Confederates and rurals are not.  That simple.

[Non Swing Voter]

Definitely Michigan. 

Being a quasi-southern state, Virginia still has a large chunk of southern white voters who will vote Trump at overwhelming margins.  Biden will win white voters in Northern Virginia but remember that all of the Northern Virginia counties are very diverse so a lot of his margin is coming from minorities. 

[Alben Barkley]

I don’t think people who are voting Virginia have ever BEEN to Virginia, at least outside of NoVA, or maybe Richmond or Hampton Roads.

If you go to Southwest Virginia, the Confederacy is still very much alive and well. That will ensure Trump still does better with the white vote there. Michigan is a whiter state but whites there are less adverse to voting Democratic.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don’t think people who are voting Virginia have ever BEEN to Virginia, at least outside of NoVA, or maybe Richmond or Hampton Roads.

If you go to Southwest Virginia, the Confederacy is still very much alive and well. That will ensure Trump still does better with the white vote there. Michigan is a whiter state but whites there are less adverse to voting Democratic.

and even in NoVa the white vote is not overwhelmingly D.  There are still a lot of working class southern whites in Loudoun and parts of Fairfax.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Michigan

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Biden will do better with northern whites than he will with southern whites.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol at the idea that Trump isn’t going to lose a lot of ground with white voters in parts of Virginia which are neither "confederate" nor "rural."

#MIIsAnIN2012Redux
#ConfederateLoudoun

Nice straw man.  Nobody said that.  There are a lot more whites outside of Northern Virginia than inside it.  Thus, Biden will do better with whites in MI than VA.  I see confederate bumper stickers in Loudoun every now and then.  You an expert on Loudoun County?  I live 2 miles from it.  Has a real southern feel when you get outside of Sterling.  #uselectionatlasknowitalls

[Old Man Willow]

I think Biden will do slightly better with white women in VA than MI, but white men will be much more Republican in VA.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Lol at the idea that Trump isn’t going to lose a lot of ground with white voters in parts of Virginia which are neither "confederate" nor "rural."

#MIIsAnIN2012Redux
#ConfederateLoudoun

Nice straw man.  Nobody said that.  There are a lot more whites outside of Northern Virginia than inside it.  Thus, Biden will do better with whites in MI than VA.  I see confederate bumper stickers in Loudoun every now and then.  You an expert on Loudoun County?  I live 2 miles from it.  Has a real southern feel when you get outside of Sterling.  #uselectionatlasknowitalls

As a fellow Loudoun resident I completely agree. Biden will 100% improve with whites, as especially in Loudoun there is a large amount of moderate fiscons that liked Trump's policy in 2016 but will not vote for him again.

There is absolutely 0 chance Biden doesn't overperform Clinton here with whites, but Loudoun is almost a different state compared to its southern neighbors.

[Turbo Flame]

More likely Michigan. Given that Virginia is moving left.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol at the idea that Trump isn’t going to lose a lot of ground with white voters in parts of Virginia which are neither "confederate" nor "rural."

#MIIsAnIN2012Redux
#ConfederateLoudoun

Nice straw man.  Nobody said that.  There are a lot more whites outside of Northern Virginia than inside it.  Thus, Biden will do better with whites in MI than VA.  I see confederate bumper stickers in Loudoun every now and then.  You an expert on Loudoun County?  I live 2 miles from it.  Has a real southern feel when you get outside of Sterling.  #uselectionatlasknowitalls

As a fellow Loudoun resident I completely agree. Biden will 100% improve with whites, as especially in Loudoun there is a large amount of moderate fiscons that liked Trump's policy in 2016 but will not vote for him again.

There is absolutely 0 chance Biden doesn't overperform Clinton here with whites, but Loudoun is almost a different state compared to its southern neighbors.

I'm technically in Fairfax but yeah.  Biden's going to probably do better than Clinton generally speaking everywhere.  But the whites in downstate VA (large proportion of total whites in VA) are a lot more locked in than swingy whites in Michigan. 

[Alben Barkley]

Lol at the idea that Trump isn’t going to lose a lot of ground with white voters in parts of Virginia which are neither "confederate" nor "rural."

#MIIsAnIN2012Redux
#ConfederateLoudoun

He will lose ground with white voters in Virginia, but the high floor he has with them there due to overwhelming support in those Confederate/rural areas means he won’t do better with them there than in Michigan. As you see from the map, he did’t even in 2016 as he won Michigan but lost Virginia. This time he will lose both, but most of that will be due to white voters abandoning him in Michigan in numbers at least as large as any losses he makes among them in Virginia. That means the difference between them could be about the same if not significantly larger due to his apparent collapse among Northern whites, meaning he still does worse with whites in Michigan.

And by the way, at this stage making fun of the idea that MI 2016 = IN 2008 is dumber than the idea itself. It makes me cringe when I see people smugly pulling out these old memes and going on about “muh trends” even after a ton of empirical evidence shows that Trump is absolutely hemorrhaging white support in the midwest/rust belt and they’re returning to 2012 levels. I mean Ohio and Iowa are toss-ups for Christ’s sake, and Michigan is absolutely gone for Trump. This doesn’t happen without whites in these states abandoning him in massive numbers.

[Intell]

Michigan (Sane)

[Adam Griffin]

Better to look at 2012 white support for this election if you think Biden is winning MI, since MI hasn't seen growth in its non-white electorate by any meaningful amount over the past several years. VA whites would have a 14-point margin deficit relative to MI whites from 2012 that'd need to be made up to have a shot at being more D.

[GP270watch]

Obama and Iowa is one the great politcal stories of all-time.

[jamestroll]

Of course Biden will do better with Michigan whites compared to Virginia whites but the gap wont be near as large as you would think.

Did we really need another Virginia thread? This site is overloaded with Virginia discussions. No idea why there are so many threads about it.

[jamestroll]

Lol at the idea that Trump isn’t going to lose a lot of ground with white voters in parts of Virginia which are neither "confederate" nor "rural."

#MIIsAnIN2012Redux
#ConfederateLoudoun

Nice straw man.  Nobody said that.  There are a lot more whites outside of Northern Virginia than inside it.  Thus, Biden will do better with whites in MI than VA.  I see confederate bumper stickers in Loudoun every now and then.  You an expert on Loudoun County?  I live 2 miles from it.  Has a real southern feel when you get outside of Sterling.  #uselectionatlasknowitalls

Prince William County really has the southern feel to me to be honest. And the voting there is more racially polarized. PWC whites likely lean to the GOP quite handily.