By how many points will Susan Collins outperform Trump in ME?

[ProgressiveModerate]

How much crossover appeal does she still have. The good news (from the perspective of a Democrat) in the new Q-Pac poll (which I'm taking with a grain of salt) is that she is losing by 12%. The bad news is that those Presidential numbers seem too bullish on Trump, and that she is overperforming him by 9%. It seems like many ME-Sen polls have her overperforming by mid to high single digits, though sometimes it can be hard to tell when there are a lot of undecides or 3rd party voters. hat do yawl think?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In terms of vote share post-RCV (as opposed to margin, which is what is suggesting a 9% overperformance in the Quinnipiac poll), I think it'll ultimately be 5-6%. These aren't all going to be Biden-Collins voters, however, and Gideon maintains a decent edge.

Edit: probably closer to 5% than 6%, but I picked the 5-8% option because I think it'll still be north of 5%.

[SenatorCouzens]

This is an excellent questions which unfortunately I don't have much insight on. I think this race is still fluid. In our polarized, closely divided county, the extent to which Collins outperforms Trump has huge ramifications for the country's future... in the passage of legislation, and, especially, the composition of the judiciary.

It would be funny indeed if RCV allowed Biden to win ME-02 and get exactly 270 to win the presidency, but also allowed Collins to hang on and be the 51st seat in a Republican Senate majority. Not likely but not impossible. 

[TDAS04]

3-5% makes sense.