Civiqs: MI, OH, PA, WI - Biden +3, Tie, Biden +7, Biden +6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls arent surprising, NM has picked the PVI winner since 1912 except for 1976, and Michelle Grisham has done wonders since Susana Martinez left the state a mess, since she left office in 2016 and OH and IA picks the EC vote winner. Ernst is losing and Kasich endorsed Biden. LBJ, Clinton and Obama won by over 7.5 percent with all three states and all three states are leaning Biden

[Hope For A New Era]

If Ohio is that determined to extend its winning streak one more election, I certainly won't complain.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Ohio is that determined to extend its winning streak one more election, I certainly won't complain.

Agreed, but I simultaneously wouldn't mind if it lost its bellwether status as well. Ultimately it means that I don't really care about Ohio in this election, and that's a good thing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ohio is that determined to extend its winning streak one more election, I certainly won't complain.

Agreed, but I simultaneously wouldn't mind if it lost its bellwether status as well. Ultimately it means that I don't really care about Ohio in this election, and that's a good thing.

Ernst is in trouble in IA and Kasich endorsed Biden already

[John Dule]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

[Ferguson97]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I wouldn't be that surprised if MI voted to the right of WI and PA, but i guess anything is possible. MI only voting 3 points to the left of OH however would surprise me.

[John Dule]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

[Brittain33]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

Sounds like a racism thing like it was with Obama. Some people have serious issues seeing a person of color in a position of authority and need to work out an explanation to blame them for their uneasy feelings. I saw it with my Dad under Obama and I’m not surprised Harris will face this nonsense, too.

[Pulaski]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

If rural Midwesterners swallow the tired, hackneyed, fearmongering stereotypes about "coastal elites" then they deserve to be condescended to.

[Ferguson97]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

Pick out any line from her speech where she does this

[John Dule]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

Sounds like a racism thing like it was with Obama. Some people have serious issues seeing a person of color in a position of authority and need to work out an explanation to blame them for their uneasy feelings. I saw it with my Dad under Obama and I’m not surprised Harris will face this nonsense, too.

Pathetic.

[DabbingSanta]

Almost exactly the same as the final 538 polling average heading in to election night 2016

Michigan: +4.1 clinton
Ohio: +1.6 trump
Pennsylvania: +3.9 clinton
Wisconsin: +5.9 clinton

The polling error in Wisconsin (7 points) was greater than Michigan or Pennsylvania (4.5 points)

Worth noting 538 gives Minnesota about the same chance voting R as Wisconsin.  Weird things happen that buck trends. I wish more polls would include Minnesota (and Iowa) in their lists.

[tagimaucia]

Almost exactly the same as the final 538 polling average heading in to election night 2016

Michigan: +4.1 clinton
Ohio: +1.6 trump
Pennsylvania: +3.9 clinton
Wisconsin: +5.9 clinton

The polling error in Wisconsin (7 points) was greater than Michigan or Pennsylvania (4.5 points)

Weighting by education doesn't necessarily solve everything, but Civiqs does weight properly by education, and the vast majority of polls in these states in 2016 did not.  There were also much higher number of undecideds at this point in 2016 in these states (for example 12.5% at this point in 2016 in WI, 6.5% now).

[John Dule]

Pick out any line from her speech where she does this

Every politician speaks in vague platitudes, but Harris does so to the point of overindulgence. It probably wouldn't bother people so much if she didn't pause while delivering these tired catchphrases as if she was reading scripture. The pregnant pauses she peppers into her speeches make it sound as though she is speaking to an audience of third-graders.

A good example of this is at 9:55 in this video. In context, it does make some sense, and no one really disagrees with the sentiment. However, these kinds of phrases are basically everything a Kamala Harris speech is. Personal anecdotes, nebulously worded platitudes, and all delivered with disproportionate weight and emphasis. If she managed to strike some sort of balance between this phony political language and facts, specifics, and issues, then it wouldn't be so objectionable. Biden managed to do that this week (though towards the end he did fall back into bromides quite a bit), and I'll give him credit for that.

Harris has been doing this since the beginning of her presidential campaign. You don't expect a whole lot from campaign ads, but this one is comically unspecific and loaded with cliched inanities. It genuinely feels like something out of the Cheers episode with the politician who refuses to say anything.

If you compare Harris' language and delivery in her speeches to something like this, you will see why she comes across as so insincere and ineffectual. Obama wades into platitudes here, giving a litany of the travails of past generations of Americans, but then neatly ties it back to our own lives by saying "If anyone had a right to say that this system didn't work, it was those people." It's a very effective line. He doesn't try to smile through it. It's not a platitude. In fact, it's a direct admonishment of modern-day cynics, and it's very effective. This is an unusual sort of rhetoric in politics, and it stands out.

Obviously Harris is no Obama. We can't expect everyone to be a gifted public speaker, and given that Obama wasn't seeking office this week, his speech had a little more leeway in terms of what he could say. But every time I sit down to watch one of Harris' speeches-- trying honestly to like her more, given that she's from my home state-- she disappoints. She equivocates. I once thought that a prosecuting attorney who has spent so much time in the courtroom would be an excellent public speaker, striking the proper balance between hard facts and platitudes-- but Harris is not capable of this. This is the Hillary Clinton/Ted Cruz school of public speaking. You force a smile, you speak in broad, unspecific truisms, and you pause between every other word in order to imbue your statements with a gravitas that they clearly do not have. At best, she needs a new speechwriter. At worst, the DNC needs a new candidate.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Michigan to the left right of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? That doesn't make any sense.

[lfromnj]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

Sounds like a racism thing like it was with Obama. Some people have serious issues seeing a person of color in a position of authority and need to work out an explanation to blame them for their uneasy feelings. I saw it with my Dad under Obama and I’m not surprised Harris will face this nonsense, too.

Thats why Duckworth won a 70% Trump county?
Is Dupage county racist because parts of it went Romney/Kirk/Clinton who were all white people?

Is Gallatin county IL enlightened because it went obama 08, only romney by 10 points but was also a Duckworth win?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

Sounds like a racism thing like it was with Obama. Some people have serious issues seeing a person of color in a position of authority and need to work out an explanation to blame them for their uneasy feelings. I saw it with my Dad under Obama and I’m not surprised Harris will face this nonsense, too.

I, Nova Albion est Summum, am Ppathetic.

[Brittain33]

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

No no, rural Midwesterners love being condescended to by insincere Bay Area political elites. Harris can only help.

When did Harris condescend them?

The rhetoric she chooses to use in her speeches wildly underestimates the intelligence of the average voter, which is an impressive feat given how stupid the average voter is.

Sounds like a racism thing like it was with Obama. Some people have serious issues seeing a person of color in a position of authority and need to work out an explanation to blame them for their uneasy feelings. I saw it with my Dad under Obama and I’m not surprised Harris will face this nonsense, too.

Thats why Duckworth won a 70% Trump county?
Is Dupage county racist because parts of it went Romney/Kirk/Clinton who were all white people?

Is Gallatin county IL enlightened because it went obama 08, only romney by 10 points but was also a Duckworth win?

"Asian-American winning Republicans in one election" doesn't disprove systemic racism any more than Obama winning office in 2008 disproves it, either.

[John Dule]

"Asian-American winning Republicans in one election" doesn't disprove systemic racism any more than Obama winning office in 2008 disproves it, either.

Admit it, you're incapable of responding to criticisms of Harris without crying wolf about racism. Nobody here tried to "disprove" systemic racism; we only claimed that it's possible to dislike a candidate with brown skin for reasons other than his/her skin color. Your puerile insistence on jumping to the worst possible conclusion proves your inability to respond to legitimate points about Harris' speaking style and overuse of platitudes.