Civiqs: MI, OH, PA, WI - Biden +3, Tie, Biden +7, Biden +6
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  Civiqs: MI, OH, PA, WI - Biden +3, Tie, Biden +7, Biden +6
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Author Topic: Civiqs: MI, OH, PA, WI - Biden +3, Tie, Biden +7, Biden +6  (Read 2948 times)
VAR
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« on: August 21, 2020, 02:26:23 PM »

MI

Biden 49%
Trump 46%

OH

Biden 47%
Trump 47%

PA

Biden 51%
Trump 44%

WI

Biden 51%
Trump 45%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200821_MIOHPAWI.pdf
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2020, 02:28:28 PM »

Meh, not good enough. The Michigan numbers seem a little off, especially when Joe Biden is leading by eight to ten points nationally.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2020, 02:28:45 PM »

This off to me.
Michigan is only 3 points to the left of Ohio.

Hard to see Ohio numbers being that if Biden's favorability is that awful

WI and PA look right.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2020, 02:29:11 PM »

Meh, not good enough. The Michigan numbers seem a little off, especially when Joe Biden is leading by eight to ten points nationally.
Especially with a D pollster
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2020, 02:29:15 PM »

Michigan is weird but the other are plausible.
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Old Broken Down Pile Of Crap
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2020, 02:30:11 PM »

Trump's approval is 47/50 in OH. Biden is 38/56 in favorability. He's not winning there.
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YE
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2020, 02:30:46 PM »

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2020, 02:31:40 PM »

Michigan to the left of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? That doesn't make any sense.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2020, 02:34:04 PM »

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.

Not a lot of quality polling. Plus I think a lot of outlets are overly correcting for 2016.

Yet, tied in OH is a great result. The PA result is plausible too, and WI +6 is about what it's been.

Michigan makes no sense though.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2020, 02:35:35 PM »

The MI result also doesn't make sense - his approval is -13 there, but he's only losing by 3?
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Darthpi Ė Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2020, 02:35:41 PM »

Agree with everybody else that the Michigan number seems weird, but given how hard that state has been to poll in recent cycles I'm not going to criticize.

Regardless, an election where Ohio is tied is an election that Trump is on track to lose.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2020, 02:35:59 PM »

Trump's approval is 47/50 in OH. Biden is 38/56 in favorability. He's not winning there.

Biden's favs have been terrible among Civiqs. Wouldnt look too much into it.
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WD
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2020, 02:36:19 PM »

Other than MI these numbers seem pretty good.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2020, 02:36:38 PM »

Agree with everybody else that the Michigan number seems weird, but given how hard that state has been to poll in recent cycles I'm not going to criticize.

Regardless, an election where Ohio is tied is an election that Trump is on track to lose.

Yeah there's no universe where Ohio is tied but Biden only leads Michigan by 3.
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2020, 02:38:16 PM »

So basically these numbers on average give us an NWS of about

MI - 6
OH - 10
WI - 9
PA- 10

35/4 - 8.75.


This is about right.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2020, 02:42:46 PM »

While Michigan voting that close to Ohio and that far right of PA/WI is unlikely, I donít think Biden should take it for granted, and I donít think itís unreasonable at all to think that MI could vote slightly to the right of PA/WI.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2020, 02:42:54 PM »

The Michigan number isnít great, although it looks like just an outlier compared to the other polls which are much better.
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ElectionWatcher25
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2020, 02:43:01 PM »

Do we have any links to the full poll results? Would like to see age, gender, education, etc.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2020, 02:53:24 PM »

Note that this is all pre-convention (ending Monday, Aug. 13).
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2020, 03:04:15 PM »

Do we have any links to the full poll results? Would like to see age, gender, education, etc.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200821_MIOHPAWI.pdf

This is the entirety of the released data

What garbage
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2020, 05:49:29 PM »

Other than MI these numbers seem pretty good.

The Michigan number isnít great, although it looks like just an outlier compared to the other polls which are much better.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2020, 07:48:04 PM »

Michigan is weird but the other are plausible.

Agree.
I really, really don't think MI is in play for trump this time around.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2020, 09:05:52 PM »

I think these Great Lake states should be kept an eye on. Biden is a decent fit for them, but the Democratic Party these days is not a great fit. The Republican Party, less southern, less hawkish, less religious and more populist than it was during the Bush years is fitting better than it has in recent decades. Trump could narrowly carry these states if things break for him in November, or Biden could carry them easily. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to how things will look November 3rd, in my opinion.
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morgieb
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2020, 10:26:13 PM »

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.
Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?
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YE
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2020, 10:29:16 PM »

Biden's polling in the midwest has been weirdly medicore lately.
Might be confirmation bias/letting AAD influence me too much, but is Harris hurting?

Thatís certainly crossed my mind but Iíd wait for my data.
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