Monmouth- Biden +9, +7 with Amash

[CookieDamage]

It is not encouraging to see Amash bring Biden below 50%, and this is before Hawkins is included in the equation too. But still, Biden leads by seven points after considering Amash, so he has room to fall, more than Clinton did as Amash is well below where either Johnson was polling for most of 2016. We don't even know if Amash will win the Libertarian nomination. Overall, it would be better if he doesn't. If he does though and this kind of polling keeps up, it could backfire on him as becomes perceived of as a possible spoiler, it might not work out well for him. Trump may have him and Hawkins to thank if he does still manage to win though.

I guess we'll see how individual state polls go when third parties are factored in though. That may give us a more accurate view of how they'll affect the race.

Howie Hawkins will not be a factor in any equation lmao

[The Mikado]

While I'm at it:

Several interesting states' ballot access process.

Minnesota: 2,000 signatures gathered between May 19th and August 18th. Minnesota's big enough that 2,000 signatures is a pretty low hurdle even in this environment.

Pennsylvania: 5,000 signatures gathered by August 3rd.

Wisconsin: 2,000 signatures between July 1st and August 4th.

[BlueSwan]

It's really depressing that even rightwing third parties hurt Biden more than Trump. I guess the explanation is that Amash would draw from NeverTrumpers and Independents (and maybe even some Reade-believing democrats) rather than from republicans.

[wbrocks67]

I think people are reading too much into Amash's ideology and if anyone really even cares. If you look at the poll, Amash pulls in 9% of 18-29 year olds (or 18-34, or whatever it is). Young people can be stupid, and even if Amash doesn't align with them at all, some will pick him, just like they did with Stein or Johnson, just because hes ~a third party~~~ and not part of the ~corrupt 2 party system~~~

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is not encouraging to see Amash bring Biden below 50%, and this is before Hawkins is included in the equation too. But still, Biden leads by seven points after considering Amash, so he has room to fall, more than Clinton did as Amash is well below where either Johnson was polling for most of 2016. We don't even know if Amash will win the Libertarian nomination. Overall, it would be better if he doesn't. If he does though and this kind of polling keeps up, it could backfire on him as becomes perceived of as a possible spoiler, it might not work out well for him. Trump may have him and Hawkins to thank if he does still manage to win though.

I guess we'll see how individual state polls go when third parties are factored in though. That may give us a more accurate view of how they'll affect the race.

Howie Hawkins will not be a factor in any equation lmao

Well, before Amash became a potential factor, I used to think that Hawkins had a chance to win more votes than the Libertarian Party nominee. I think he has the potential to come close to Stein's 2016 vote totals. But then again, the Greens may not be on as many state ballots this year.

[longtimelurker]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Half the people in Alaska live in greater Anchorage, so getting signatures to qualify for the state ballot is not as arduous as one may think.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

Libertarians are going to be on the ballot in over 40 states, though Libertarians aren't going to replicate 2016's 50 state ballot access. They already have access in 36 states and counting.



Greens are going to be a lot more restricted than in 2016.

EDIT: A number of the grey states on that map, like WA, MN, WI, NJ, and RI haven't even opened up their ballot access processes yet, and some of them have very easy qualifications to get on. Tennessee also has absurdly easy ballot access for "independent" candidates but very hard for third parties, so Amash and Hawkins will likely both register as independents in TN.

Which states are they going to miss? They are already in Oklahoma, which is the state they missed in 2012.

Under the circumstances, getting 3,000 signatures in Alaska or 5,000 in Alabama by August (and really multiply those numbers by 1.5 to deal with invalid signatures) might be difficult, given how no one's gonna come close to a petitioner right now and Alaska isn't exactly big population-wise.

Arguably the biggest challenge in 10,000 signatures in Maryland, again by August.

[Mr. Morden]

Amash support by age:
age 18-34: 9%
age 35-54: 6%
age 55+: 1%

Amash support by party ID:
Independent: 10%
Democrat: 3%
Republican: 2%

Amash support by race/education:
white w/ college degree: 6%
white w/ no college degree: 4%
non-white: 5%

[Pericles]

Amash starting on 5% now probably means he ends up on 1-2%, especially given the very intense negative polarisation right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden doesnt have to do much til Nov, with Ginsburg as a motivation to vote, he will be 45th Prez despite his shortcomings

[Alben Barkley]

The only states I want Amash on the ballot are Utah and Maine. Now that Maine has ranked choice, there's an outside shot it could spoil ME-02 for Trump. And since McMullin got so much of the vote in Utah last time and there's little evidence Trump is much more popular there now, an anti-Trump conservative candidate there would likely hurt him in an otherwise solid red state. Utah is the state that probably has the most appetite for that sort of candidate.

Elsewhere I worry that Amash would hurt Biden more than Trump. In his home state of Michigan, probably the state he'd do best in next to Utah, the effect might go either way or cancel out or just not matter. But if it's close again like it was last time, it could make the difference. It's not a risk I want to take in such a critical state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna have split voting obviously in this election. MT, TX, ME and SC can split their votes. TX Dems can win the state house and Prez race but lose Senate race, SC can go D for Sen and R for Prez and Collins can survive even if Biden wins ME