Rate Oakland County, MI if Bernie is the nominee?

[SN2903]

Past results:
2016: Clinton 51% Trump 43%
2012: Obama 53% Romney 45%
2008: Obama 56% McCain 42%
2004: Kerry 49.75% Bush 49.32%
2000: Gore 49% Bush 48%


I say Tilt D bordering on a Toss Up. I think Bernie is a terrible fit for the suburbs especially affluent suburbs.

[Sbane]

Bernie wins by 9-10 points. Any swings against him in the 100k+ areas will be made up by swings towards him in a belt stretching from Farmington to Ferndale as well as perhaps Novi and Troy. Pontiac will swing towards Bernie but I think the exurban areas with relatively lower income and education levels could end up deciding this thing. I suspect they stay at about the same margin as 2016. If they swing even more towards Trump, along with Macomb County, he wins the state and the country.

[Tekken_Guy]

Safe D. Bernie could lose a bit in the wealthiest areas but the middle class parts could move towards him, and Trump will negate the anti-Bernie backlash a bit.

[Arbitrage1980]

Oakland is not Fairfax. Hillary's margin there was 8 points, and Trump is a much stronger candidate now than he was in 2016 while Bernie's socialism will be a major liability. He may still win it, but it will be close. It would be shocking if Bernie performs on par or better than Hillary's margin.

[Sbane]

Oakland is not Fairfax. Hillary's margin there was 8 points, and Trump is a much stronger candidate now than he was in 2016 while Bernie's socialism will be a major liability. He may still win it, but it will be close. It would be shocking if Bernie performs on par or better than Hillary's margin.

There are lots of college educated whites and a good chunk of minorities, including a significant number of African Americans and Asians. Bernie will win it comfortably.

[Bojack Horseman]

Likely D. If Dana Nessel could win Oakland, so will Bernie.

[here2view]

Likely D

[SN2903]

Likely D. If Dana Nessel could win Oakland, so will Bernie.

This is NOT 2018. Trump's base will be out

[TDAS04]

Likely D

[slothdem]

Safe D, obviously, please stop making these troll threads.

[Gracile]

Safe D (voted Likely D, but Safe D should have been an option).

[slothdem]

Safe D (voted Likely D, but Safe D should have been an option).

Actually, it should not have been an option, because that would defeat the purpose of this thread. The purpose of this thread is to get a bunch of posters say "it's Safe D, why isn't that an option," to which the OP would respond with something about socialism and call us hacks.

[Xing]

Sanders wins by more than Clinton.

[Bojack Horseman]

Likely D. If Dana Nessel could win Oakland, so will Bernie.

This is NOT 2018. Trump's base will be out

They were out in 2018. Schuette got 250,000 more votes than Snyder did in 2014.

[ElectionsGuy]

This whole 'if Bernie is the nominee' thing is stupid, he's not going to perform significantly different than anyone else. Likely D.

[SN2903]

Safe D, obviously, please stop making these troll threads.

Oakland County is in play if democrats nominate a socialist. I grew up in Oakland County and know it far better than you. Sorry just the truth.

[SN2903]

Likely D. If Dana Nessel could win Oakland, so will Bernie.

This is NOT 2018. Trump's base will be out

They were out in 2018. Schuette got 250,000 more votes than Snyder did in 2014.

No they weren't. Not to the same extent they were in 2016 and will be in 2020.

[Bojack Horseman]

Safe D, obviously, please stop making these troll threads.

Oakland County is in play if democrats nominate a socialist. I grew up in Oakland County and know it far better than you. Sorry just the truth.

I lived in Oakland for all but two years of my life so far. Oakland is as blue as Lake Michigan and with Trump as the GOP’s standard-bearer that trend is only going to continue. Coulter will win a full term, the county board will stay Democratic, Bouchard might even lose, and even Bernie will carry Oakland. You sir are delusional.

[Frenchrepublican]

Where is the safe D option ?

Sanders would win it 53/44 in my opinion, Oakland county is not going to vote Trump, it’s not 1972 anymore

[538Electoral]

Lean D

[Frenchrepublican]

Bernie wins by 9-10 points. Any swings against him in the 100k+ areas will be made up by swings towards him in a belt stretching from Farmington to Ferndale as well as perhaps Novi and Troy. Pontiac will swing towards Bernie but I think the exurban areas with relatively lower income and education levels could end up deciding this thing. I suspect they stay at about the same margin as 2016. If they swing even more towards Trump, along with Macomb County, he wins the state and the country.