Predict the Democratic Primaries Final Round: Iowa

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Bernie will win, Klobuchar will do well enough to get a nationwide boost, Biden will be seen as having a bad night, Buttigieg will collapse, Warren will flounder and her campaign will die a slow death. Who cares about the others.

Sanders 24%
Klobuchar 18%
Biden 17%
Buttigieg 14%
Warren 12%

Field 15%

[Meclazine for Israel]

Feel the Bern.

Sanders 24%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 18%
Klobuchar 14%
Warren 8%

I cannot figure out the effect of the impeachment proceedings on Bidens numbers.

Sometimes, having your name blasted all over the media can have a positive impact on your polling.

[It’s so Joever]

Lmao.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, the more I look at these results I realize Sanders didn't do what he needed to launch into frontrunner status, not even close. Even though he truly won, he didn't overperform his polls in a caucus of all places. But then again it is Iowa, where every single candidate is heavily contesting it. On top of that turnout was lower than expected, which may help explain why he didn't do as well as some of the polls were showing. Certainly, I overestimated him.

Overall though, I think the results are inconsequential. I think we're going to look back and realize they didn't really shape the race at all. Even New Hampshire I don't think is that important. This race starts getting shaped in Nevada.