Rate South Carolina

[Frenchrepublican]

Well at least Dems have a credible candidate in SC which is better than can be said in either GA seat or TX.

Raising money doesn’t mean you are a serious candidate, just look at Ironstache last year.

[Frenchrepublican]

Not going to happen.

By the way neither Lancaster nor Spartanburg are trending D, that’s factually wrong.

Well, Warren, KY (Bowling Green) wasn't trending D either... and yet Beshear won this 35% ancestrally Republican County, getting a huge swing from Conway.

The key is this: urban/suburban county --> Dem / rural white county --> Rep.

Archie Parnell got 44% in both Lancaster and York in the Special in 2018. In the general, he did several points better than Clinton in both counties.

Spartanburg is not moving as fast as Greeneville but I expect it will have a similar trajectory.

SC is just as possible as GA and TX.

I have read a lot of stupid things on this forum but considering that the KY-GOV results are a kind of barometer for future congressional elections is really insane. Bevin lost because of himself and nothing else.


And no, Lancaster and York counties didn't trend D in 2018, Clinton lost Lancaster by 23 points and York by 25 points, while she won the PV by 2 ; in 2018 Parnell lost Lancaster by 18 points and York by 22 points, while the congressional PV was D+8.5. Do you understand how trends work?

As it relates to Kentucky, the point of comparison is the vast and unprecedented swings we are seeing in urban/suburban counties. Those swings are consistent with all of the other activity we are seeing in other elections. Bevin's weakness in coal country is certainly not something applicable elsewhere.

The Dem in the SC gov race saw similar support grow in urban/suburban areas of SC.

Congressional swings aren't uniform. Parnell in the special did very well in Lancaster/York. In the general, Parnell was underfunded and suffering a major scandal and still held up okay there. In many Trumpy areas, Republicans held their own--Indiana, North Dakota, even Florida and parts of Minnesota.

SC-01, the close special in SC-05, and trends in the Columbus 'burbs suggest something is going on in this largely suburban state.

I know this is going out on a limb but this race will be closer than expected. In '18, many were suggesting Texas was a far lost cause.

Are you just trolling ? Why talking about Columbus, this post is about SC, not OH and using the SC5th special as a argument is stupid, it was a very low turnout election where democrats were simply outvoting republicans (like it has been the case in many special elections since 2016).

And comparing TX-SEN 2018 with SC-SEN is absurd too, TX trended D a lot in 2016 which was not the case of SC

[socaldem]

Not going to happen.

By the way neither Lancaster nor Spartanburg are trending D, that’s factually wrong.

Well, Warren, KY (Bowling Green) wasn't trending D either... and yet Beshear won this 35% ancestrally Republican County, getting a huge swing from Conway.

The key is this: urban/suburban county --> Dem / rural white county --> Rep.

Archie Parnell got 44% in both Lancaster and York in the Special in 2018. In the general, he did several points better than Clinton in both counties.

Spartanburg is not moving as fast as Greeneville but I expect it will have a similar trajectory.

SC is just as possible as GA and TX.

I have read a lot of stupid things on this forum but considering that the KY-GOV results are a kind of barometer for future congressional elections is really insane. Bevin lost because of himself and nothing else.


And no, Lancaster and York counties didn't trend D in 2018, Clinton lost Lancaster by 23 points and York by 25 points, while she won the PV by 2 ; in 2018 Parnell lost Lancaster by 18 points and York by 22 points, while the congressional PV was D+8.5. Do you understand how trends work?

As it relates to Kentucky, the point of comparison is the vast and unprecedented swings we are seeing in urban/suburban counties. Those swings are consistent with all of the other activity we are seeing in other elections. Bevin's weakness in coal country is certainly not something applicable elsewhere.

The Dem in the SC gov race saw similar support grow in urban/suburban areas of SC.

Congressional swings aren't uniform. Parnell in the special did very well in Lancaster/York. In the general, Parnell was underfunded and suffering a major scandal and still held up okay there. In many Trumpy areas, Republicans held their own--Indiana, North Dakota, even Florida and parts of Minnesota.

SC-01, the close special in SC-05, and trends in the Columbus 'burbs suggest something is going on in this largely suburban state.

I know this is going out on a limb but this race will be closer than expected. In '18, many were suggesting Texas was a far lost cause.

Are you just trolling ? Why talking about Columbus, this post is about SC, not OH and using the SC5th special as a argument is stupid, it was a very low turnout election where democrats were simply outvoting republicans (like it has been the case in many special elections since 2016).

And comparing TX-SEN 2018 with SC-SEN is absurd too, TX trended D a lot in 2016 which was not the case of SC

Everything is absurd and stupid--until it comes to be, I suppose.

I meant Columbia, obvs.

As for the D trends in 2016, the trend against Dems in SC can largely be explained by a reduction in Black voter enthusiasm and turn-out post-Obama. As Black voters make up a huge portion of the SC electorate, that's a big difference.

Meanwhile, the bottom fell out on Republicans in the suburbs--particularly in the South--AFTER 2016. In the 2016 election, in SC--as elsewhere--Republicans lost support in the suburbs but Trump still largely won them. In 2018 and in 2019, Dems are now winning white suburbs in the South.

Look - I think Harrison has a slim chance to win but I think its better than some other Dem longshots like Iowa or Kentucky.

These are the county numbers that he could hit to get to 49.2%--enough to win with third party candidates, etc.

County   Dem Goal    Total Vote     Dem Vote
Charleston   66.00%    147,451     97,318
Richland   73.00%    141,438     103,250
Horry   38.00%    110,638     42,042
Lexington   43.00%    99,551     42,807
York   43.00%    95,530     41,078
Spartanburg   41.00%    94,874     38,898
Beaufort   48.00%    70,433     33,808
Berkeley   53.00%    65,669     34,805
Anderson   31.03%    62,893     19,514
Aiken   39.00%    59,612     23,249
Dorchester   52.00%    50,896     26,466
Florence   49.51%    45,516     22,533
Pickens   26.92%    38,614     10,393
Sumter   58.32%    34,426     20,076
Lancaster   41.00%    32,872     13,478
Orangeburg   71.37%    30,643     21,871
Oconee   28.81%    27,582     7,945
Georgetown   48.00%    25,858     12,412
Kershaw   40.81%    23,497     9,588
Darlington   51.27%    23,315     11,953
Greenwood   41.76%    23,147     9,665
Laurens   40.60%    20,348     8,261
Cherokee   34.81%    16,711     5,817
Colleton   49.60%    13,226     6,560
Newberry   42.28%    13,030     5,509
Clarendon   55.80%    12,090     6,746
Chesterfield   47.96%    11,977     5,744
Williamsburg   69.52%    11,554     8,033
Chester   54.77%    10,863     5,950
Marion   64.65%    10,421     6,737
Edgefield   42.87%    9,392     4,026
Jasper   57.45%    9,360     5,377
Fairfield   65.38%    9,279     6,067
Union   46.22%    8,943     4,133
Abbeville   42.57%    8,572     3,649
Dillon   57.71%    8,194     4,729
Marlboro   61.91%    7,767     4,809
Barnwell   52.28%    7,289     3,811
Saluda   38.86%    6,876     2,672
Hampton   63.37%    6,624     4,198
Lee   67.10%    6,368     4,273
Calhoun   51.63%    5,948     3,071
McCormick   51.41%    4,431     2,278
Bamberg   67.19%    4,382     2,944
Allendale   79.20%    2,898     2,295

Total   49.21%    1,707,569     840,294

[Frenchrepublican]

Not going to happen.

By the way neither Lancaster nor Spartanburg are trending D, that’s factually wrong.

Well, Warren, KY (Bowling Green) wasn't trending D either... and yet Beshear won this 35% ancestrally Republican County, getting a huge swing from Conway.

The key is this: urban/suburban county --> Dem / rural white county --> Rep.

Archie Parnell got 44% in both Lancaster and York in the Special in 2018. In the general, he did several points better than Clinton in both counties.

Spartanburg is not moving as fast as Greeneville but I expect it will have a similar trajectory.

SC is just as possible as GA and TX.

I have read a lot of stupid things on this forum but considering that the KY-GOV results are a kind of barometer for future congressional elections is really insane. Bevin lost because of himself and nothing else.


And no, Lancaster and York counties didn't trend D in 2018, Clinton lost Lancaster by 23 points and York by 25 points, while she won the PV by 2 ; in 2018 Parnell lost Lancaster by 18 points and York by 22 points, while the congressional PV was D+8.5. Do you understand how trends work?

As it relates to Kentucky, the point of comparison is the vast and unprecedented swings we are seeing in urban/suburban counties. Those swings are consistent with all of the other activity we are seeing in other elections. Bevin's weakness in coal country is certainly not something applicable elsewhere.

The Dem in the SC gov race saw similar support grow in urban/suburban areas of SC.

Congressional swings aren't uniform. Parnell in the special did very well in Lancaster/York. In the general, Parnell was underfunded and suffering a major scandal and still held up okay there. In many Trumpy areas, Republicans held their own--Indiana, North Dakota, even Florida and parts of Minnesota.

SC-01, the close special in SC-05, and trends in the Columbus 'burbs suggest something is going on in this largely suburban state.

I know this is going out on a limb but this race will be closer than expected. In '18, many were suggesting Texas was a far lost cause.

Are you just trolling ? Why talking about Columbus, this post is about SC, not OH and using the SC5th special as a argument is stupid, it was a very low turnout election where democrats were simply outvoting republicans (like it has been the case in many special elections since 2016).

And comparing TX-SEN 2018 with SC-SEN is absurd too, TX trended D a lot in 2016 which was not the case of SC

Everything is absurd and stupid--until it comes to be, I suppose.

I meant Columbia, obvs.

As for the D trends in 2016, the trend against Dems in SC can largely be explained by a reduction in Black voter enthusiasm and turn-out post-Obama. As Black voters make up a huge portion of the SC electorate, that's a big difference.

Meanwhile, the bottom fell out on Republicans in the suburbs--particularly in the South--AFTER 2016. In the 2016 election, in SC--as elsewhere--Republicans lost support in the suburbs but Trump still largely won them. In 2018 and in 2019, Dems are now winning white suburbs in the South.

Look - I think Harrison has a slim chance to win but I think its better than some other Dem longshots like Iowa or Kentucky.

These are the county numbers that he could hit to get to 49.2%--enough to win with third party candidates, etc.

County   Dem Goal    Total Vote     Dem Vote
Charleston   66.00%    147,451     97,318
Richland   73.00%    141,438     103,250
Horry   38.00%    110,638     42,042
Lexington   43.00%    99,551     42,807
York   43.00%    95,530     41,078
Spartanburg   41.00%    94,874     38,898
Beaufort   48.00%    70,433     33,808
Berkeley   53.00%    65,669     34,805
Anderson   31.03%    62,893     19,514
Aiken   39.00%    59,612     23,249
Dorchester   52.00%    50,896     26,466
Florence   49.51%    45,516     22,533
Pickens   26.92%    38,614     10,393
Sumter   58.32%    34,426     20,076
Lancaster   41.00%    32,872     13,478
Orangeburg   71.37%    30,643     21,871
Oconee   28.81%    27,582     7,945
Georgetown   48.00%    25,858     12,412
Kershaw   40.81%    23,497     9,588
Darlington   51.27%    23,315     11,953
Greenwood   41.76%    23,147     9,665
Laurens   40.60%    20,348     8,261
Cherokee   34.81%    16,711     5,817
Colleton   49.60%    13,226     6,560
Newberry   42.28%    13,030     5,509
Clarendon   55.80%    12,090     6,746
Chesterfield   47.96%    11,977     5,744
Williamsburg   69.52%    11,554     8,033
Chester   54.77%    10,863     5,950
Marion   64.65%    10,421     6,737
Edgefield   42.87%    9,392     4,026
Jasper   57.45%    9,360     5,377
Fairfield   65.38%    9,279     6,067
Union   46.22%    8,943     4,133
Abbeville   42.57%    8,572     3,649
Dillon   57.71%    8,194     4,729
Marlboro   61.91%    7,767     4,809
Barnwell   52.28%    7,289     3,811
Saluda   38.86%    6,876     2,672
Hampton   63.37%    6,624     4,198
Lee   67.10%    6,368     4,273
Calhoun   51.63%    5,948     3,071
McCormick   51.41%    4,431     2,278
Bamberg   67.19%    4,382     2,944
Allendale   79.20%    2,898     2,295

Total   49.21%    1,707,569     840,294

The problem is that you are not doing any analysis here, you have simply written a bunch of random numbers, you are not explaining how a such situation could plausibly happen. Do you really believe that a progressive democrat will win more than 40% of the vote in Spartanburg county ?? or 38% in Horry county ?? or 66% in Charleston County ?? or 43% in Lexington county ?? These numbers are unrealistic, even James Smith who was not a bad candidate and who was helped by a D wave didn't reach them (he won 57% in Charleston which is already quite good and 37% in Lexington). You should live in the real world, dude. And it's not like the democrats will have the luxury to run against Roy Moore, Graham is a pretty popular incumbent Senator who will be very well financed, nah this race is not competitive. 

[socaldem]

I live in the world where Democrats won every congressional seat in Republican Orange County.

Where TX-07, once the reddest district in Texas is controlled by a Democrat. Where Dems picked up OK-01, and SC-01, and nearly GA-06 and NC-09. Where Democrats are handily winning Mecklenberg County suburbs and making inroads into Union, Rankin, and Desoto County.

In terms of the methodology for the percentages, it is as follows:

-In rural Black counties and rural counties with around 25%-30% Black population, I assumed that Harrison could match Obama's '12 percentage. Harrison is actually a better fit for African-American Democrats culturally than Obama and would be contesting SC unlike the former President.

-In the few (but fairly populous) rural white counties, I assumed that Dems would continue to do as bad as ever.

-In urban/suburban counties, I assumed continued movement towards the Ds beyond that.

In Charleston County in 2018, Dems got 60.7% of the vote. With higher Black turnout alone, perhaps that could be pushed up a point or two. With continued embarrassment of Graham, perhaps he will continue to lose some white support.

[Not_A_Doctor]

South Carolina isn't going Republican in any statewide race anytime soon unless the GOP nominee is Roy Moore-tier... therefore, Safe R. Graham wins by 10-15 points, possibly more.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R

[Politician]

"SoUtH CaRoLiNa Is TrEnDiNg D"



But this is coming from the forum that thinks NV and MS are trending D and that IL is trending R, lol.

[libertpaulian]

The Dems, in this environment, normally SHOULD be able to count on the suburbs in the Upcountry flipping; however, they are the Southern version of the WOW counties...solidly R and not budging anytime soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wave insurance, if 2008 wave is duplicated, 5-8 seats can be gainedq

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I live in the world where Democrats won every congressional seat in Republican Orange County.

Where TX-07, once the reddest district in Texas is controlled by a Democrat. Where Dems picked up OK-01, and SC-01, and nearly GA-06 and NC-09. Where Democrats are handily winning Mecklenberg County suburbs and making inroads into Union, Rankin, and Desoto County.

In terms of the methodology for the percentages, it is as follows:

-In rural Black counties and rural counties with around 25%-30% Black population, I assumed that Harrison could match Obama's '12 percentage. Harrison is actually a better fit for African-American Democrats culturally than Obama and would be contesting SC unlike the former President.

-In the few (but fairly populous) rural white counties, I assumed that Dems would continue to do as bad as ever.

-In urban/suburban counties, I assumed continued movement towards the Ds beyond that.

In Charleston County in 2018, Dems got 60.7% of the vote. With higher Black turnout alone, perhaps that could be pushed up a point or two. With continued embarrassment of Graham, perhaps he will continue to lose some white support.

Orange County only gave 52% to Romney and 50.2% to McCain. Not really a surprise. As for TX-7, GA-6, yes? They were once the most Republican districts in their states, just like how Vermont used to be solid R and West Virginia solid D. Not really sure how any of that is relevant.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The Dems, in this environment, normally SHOULD be able to count on the suburbs in the Upcountry flipping; however, they are the Southern version of the WOW counties...solidly R and not budging anytime soon.

Kinda the same with the Charlotte exurbs tbh (though not the Mecklenburg ones for some reason).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am pulling for Harrison, if Tim Scott can win, so can Harrison

[Yellowhammer]

The Dems, in this environment, normally SHOULD be able to count on the suburbs in the Upcountry flipping; however, they are the Southern version of the WOW counties...solidly R and not budging anytime soon.

Umm, wth? In what hell world would they flip, even in something like “this environment?” They’re over 70% white, and very religious. Not all suburbs are the same, and they don’t behave the same. Everything with mildly concentrated population isn’t just going to reverse voting patterns on a coin flip because Orange Man Says Mean Things^TM.

[socaldem]

Yes, it is ridiculously tough for Harrison and I think the point is valid that the Upcountry counties are just absurdly Republican in a manner similar to WOW.

But the state is, in fact, trending Democratic and I expect that the SC performance will be better in comparison than the national performance than '20.

1. The "Obama" factor. Obama did exceptionally well with Black voters throughout the South. As such, he did very well in SC. Obama also did fairly well with educated suburban white voters.

2. Hillary did not turn out Black voters in the way that Obama did. Plus she experienced a collapse with rural voters. She did somewhat better than Obama with suburban voters.

3. Trump has caused the bottom to fall out for Republicans with suburban voters--particularly educated suburbanites post-2016. While some of those rock-ribbed Republicans held their nose and supported him against "scary" national Democrats, they have punished Republicans who have voted in lock-step with him. This is reflected in results in SC-01, NC-09, GA-06, GA-07, OK-05--demographically similar to much of the state of SC.

4. Trump support has held up--and improved with rural voters--reflecting in exceptional margins in white rural counties. But SC doesn't really have all that much population in counties like that.

With the trends we are seeing nationwide, I don't see how Republicans continue to support the margins they have in SC. Sure, its not necessarily going Dem in 2020 but unless we argue that the demographic rules that we are seeing everything else don't apply to this one state, the state is going to move away from Republicans.

68% of the state is in urban/suburban counties. Only 8% is in rural very white counties of the sort where Trump has dominated.

So yeah, lots of upside for Dems, not so much for the GOP.

"SoUtH CaRoLiNa Is TrEnDiNg D"



But this is coming from the forum that thinks NV and MS are trending D and that IL is trending R, lol.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I am pulling for Harrison, if Tim Scott can win, so can Harrison

Tim Scott was a Republican. Harrison is a Democrat.

[Suburbia]

Safe R

Graham 60%
Harrison 40%

2022 SC-GOV will be a race to watch

[Storr]

Safe R, but at this point I'd like some Republican to beat Graham in the Republican primary. Hopefully SC Republicans replace this clown. It's so obvious he's been acting super Trumpy (Kavanaugh rant included) lately solely because his reelection is next year. I know a good number of SC Republicans don't like him based on his low favorability and strong 2014 primary challenge.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave election, with Biden on the ticket, Harrison can upset Graham.  Graham was a friend to McCain and he appeared as mavericky. Since, McCain is gone, he is a rubber stamp to Trump

[Libertas Vel Mors]

In a wave election, with Biden on the ticket, Harrison can upset Graham.  Graham was a friend to McCain and he appeared as mavericky. Since, McCain is gone, he is a rubber stamp to Trump

In your life, have you ever heard of an election that wasn't a D wave?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If this was 2000 or 2004, of course I would not say wave, Gore warned us of a revolutionary economy not based on fossil fuels; as a result, a nuclear powered economy favors Dems. Not to mention Trump isnt communicative like Bush W, he is being laughed at on SNL like Palin, and suffers from being gaffe prone