Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[Storr]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

"The nation gained more than 1.6 million people this past year, growing by 0.5% to 334,914,895."

"Texas experienced the largest numeric change in the nation, adding 473,453 people, followed by Florida, which added 365,205 residents."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

Doing some quick math, if population continued to grow by 0.5% for the next 6 years, by the 2030 Census the US population would be 343.37 million.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I have hope that Rhode Island will defy expectations for a third time. Just wait and see.

[cinyc]

Census' 7/1/23 city estimates are out today. Some highlights of the 2022-23 changes:

-NYC lost 77K, Chicago 8.2K and L.A. 1.8K. This is bad, but not as bad as prior years this decade.
-Detroit gained a little population from 2022-23 for the first time since the 1950s.
-Jacksonville, FL leapfrogged over Austin, TX into 10th place.
-The top growing cities (numeric terms, >20K) were San Antonio and Fort Worth. Most of the rest of the Top 15, except DC, were in the Sun Belt.
-The top growing cities (% terms, >20K) were mainly Texas exurbs. You probably haven’t heard of most of them.

I have a map on my website detailing the changes here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/pop-change/23-town-pop-change

[danny]

Last decade I noticed that the estimates gave the Hasidic towns much slower growth than what would make sense for such places, and the 2020 census corrected these estimates with much higher numbers.

Looks like the census estimates are mostly back to making the same mistakes: Lakewood and and New Square show minimal growth, and Bloomingburg shows a small decrease. The one exception is
kiryas Joel which shows very high growth, even higher than would be expected purely from high birth rates.

[Kevinstat]

[The same lists as below for the July 1, 2022 estimates released last year.]

In the 2020 census, the State House "quotas" of Maine's largest municipalities (those with over 0.9/151 of Maine's population in any one of the three following tables), were as follows (with instances where the "Estimates Base" (EB) used in for the recently released estimates yields a different quota than the official census numbers noted in parentheses (that's happened a lot more with the estimates following the 2020 census than with those between the 2010 and 2020 censuses):

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.5821 (EB 7.5773) (State Senate quota {1.5566 (EB 1.5556), 1.6570 (EB 1.6560), 1.7575 (EB 1.7563)} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs" for all three sizes allowed under the Maine Constitution)
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1144 (EB 4.1122) (State Senate quota {0.8447 (EB 0.8442), 0.8992 (EB 0.8987), 0.9537 (EB 0.9532)} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, below 0.95 "cutoff" with 31 or 33 Senators but between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark with the current 35 Senators)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.5194 (EB 3.5157) (State Senate quota {0.7225 (EB 0.7218), 0.7691 (EB 0.7683), 0.8158 (EB 0.8149)} with {31, 33, 35}, well below 0.95 "cutoff" for all three allowable sizes)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.9370 (EB 2.9351)
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6669 (EB 2.6646)
Biddeford city 2.4996 (EB 2.4974)
Scarborough town 2.4534 (EB 2.4520)
Sanford city 2.4364 (EB 2.4343)
Brunswick town 2.4114 (EB 2.4107)
Westbrook city 2.2611 (EB 2.2602)
Saco city 2.2590 (EB 2.2575)
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0947 (EB 2.0936)
Windham town 2.0432 (EB 2.0409)
Gorham town 2.0323
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.7543 (EB 1.8479)
York town 1.5210 (EB 1.5199)
Falmouth town 1.3793 (EB 1.3790)
Kennebunk town 1.2786 (EB 1.2780)
Wells town 1.2540 (EB 1.2539)
Orono town 1.2395 (EB 1.2383)
Standish town 1.1354 (EB 1.1337)
Kittery town 1.1161 (EB 1.1158)
Lisbon town 1.0763 (EB 1.0758)
Brewer city 1.0720 (EB 1.0719)
Topsham town 1.0596 (EB 1.0590)
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0568 (EB 1.0565)
=1.05 "cutoff"=
=1.0 mark=
Yarmouth town 0.9964 (EB 0.9966)
Old Orchard Beach town 0.9931 (EB 0.9928)
Presque Isle city 0.9750 (EB 0.9740)
Bath city 0.9716 (EB 0.9711)
Freeport town 0.9684 (EB 0.9670)
Skowhegan town 0.9554 (EB 0.9548)
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Cumberland town 0.9391 (EB 0.9383)
Ellsworth city 0.9309 (EB 0.9303)
Buxton town 0.9284 (EB 0.9278)
Gray town 0.9165 (EB 0.9160)
Berwick town 0.8812 (EB 0.8810)
...
Farmington town 0.8415 (EB 0.8404)

The largest municipalities as of and according to the July 1, 2023 estimates and their State House "quotas" are as follows:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.4762 (State Senate quota {1.5349, 1.6339, 1.7329} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs" for all three sizes allowed under the Maine Constitution)
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1548 (State Senate quota {0.8530, 0.9080, 0.9630} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, below 0.95 "cutoff" with 31 or 33 Senators but between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark with the current 35 Senators)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.4218 (State Senate quota {0.7025, 0.7478, 0.7931} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, well below 0.95 "cutoff" for all three allowable sizes)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.9038
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6823
Scarborough town 2.5593
Brunswick town 2.4271
Biddeford city 2.4198
Sanford city 2.4073
Saco city 2.2676
Westbrook city 2.2248
Windham town 2.1268
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0666
=2.0 mark=
Gorham town 1.9848
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.8200
York town 1.5274
Falmouth town 1.3922
Orono town 1.3256
Kennebunk town 1.2891
Wells town 1.2826
Standish town 1.1706
Kittery town 1.1667
Topsham town 1.0549
Lisbon town 1.0526
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Brewer city 1.0436
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0377
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0136
=1.0 mark=
Yarmouth town 0.9765
Bath city 0.9568
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Freeport town 0.9500 (0.944996, to be more precise)
Cumberland town 0.9471
Ellsworth city 0.9424
Skowhegan town 0.9389
Presque Isle city 0.9387
Buxton town 0.9237
Farmington town 0.9115
Gray town 0.9082
Berwick town 0.8943

Taking the "Estimates base" from April 1, 2020 shown in the same Census Bureau tables showing the above estimates, and adding to it the population gains (negative for losses) from that base to July 1, 2023 multiplied by 10/3.25 (I use a linear progression rather than exponential as it has the benefit of municipal projections being the same as county projections), the following are the projected (April 1,) 2030 State House "quotas" for all municipalities (in descending order) with projected (or 2020) quotas above 0.9000:

=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.2807 (State Senate quota {1.4947, 1.5911, 1.6876} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs" for all three sizes allowed under the Maine Constitution)
=7.0 mark=
...
=4.75 (5*0.95) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.2372 (State Senate quota {0.8699, 0.9260, 0.9821} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, below 0.95 "cutoff" with 31 or 33 Senators but between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark with the current 35 Senators)
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.2399 (State Senate quota {0.6651, 0.7081, 0.7510} with {31, 33, 35} Senators, well below 0.95 "cutoff" for all three allowable sizes)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
South Portland city 2.8431
Scarborough town 2.7668
Auburn city 2.7166
Brunswick town 2.4588
Sanford city 2.3550
Windham town 2.2928
Saco city 2.2872
Biddeford city 2.2697
Westbrook city 2.1563
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0144
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Gorham town 1.8929
Waterville city 1.7662
York town 1.5419
Orono town 1.4946
Falmouth town 1.4177
Wells town 1.3380
Kennebunk town 1.3105
Kittery town 1.2652
Standish town 1.2419
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0538
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Farmington town 1.0490
Topsham town 1.0471
Lisbon town 1.0076
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0014
=1.0 mark=
Brewer city 0.9887
Ellsworth city 0.9660
Cumberland town 0.9640
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Yarmouth town 0.9376
Bath city 0.9291
Berwick town 0.9201
Freeport town 0.9170
Buxton town 0.9158
Skowhegan town 0.9079
Gray town 0.8933
...
Presque Isle city 0.8705

[kwabbit]

It's odd how the Census estimates don't capture Lakewood, NJ Orthodox Jewish growth but do for Kiryas Joel, and seemingly only halfway capture Kaser and New Square.

The pre-2020 census estimates had Lakewood going from 92k to 105k, actual count had 135k. Now 4 years later it's gone from 135k to 140k. Some of the growth has been in Jackson and Howell, but both of those also have tepid growth according to these estimates.