Which party would benefit from overturning Roe v. Wade?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats. Only reason I support overturning it. No more abortion litmus test getting the GOP lots of socially conservative blue collar voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the long run, the Democrats. Not so sure about in the short-term though.

[Gabu]

The Democrats, overall, I'd say.  In the short term it could marginally benefit the Republicans because they could say, "see, see, we overturned Roe v. Wade, you should vote for us", but after thinking about that statement through, it actually is probably false, given that anyone swayed by that argument was probably voting Republican already.

The Democrats, on the other hand, could finally stop having to endure people voting for the Republicans purely because they hope that the Republicans will appoint judges to overturn Roe v. Wade - if the Democrats are smart, that is, and don't nominate someone who will promise to overturn the overturning.  Whether or not that would be the case is very much up for debate.  They've done more than a few boneheaded things in the past, and the pro-choice crowd would be wildly emboldened if Roe v. Wade were ever overturned.

[afleitch]

Again I agree. This would benefit the Democrats especially amongst women voters.

[dazzleman]

For once, BRTD asks a reasonable question.  Of course, he provides his usual incisive analysis -- a 4th grader could have done as well.

In any case, I think it would benefit Democrats in the short run, but in the long run it would either be a wash, or benefit Republicans possibly.

An aggrieved group generally has more intensity, so initially, overturning Roe vs. Wade would fire up the pro-abortion activists and those who support them, most generally not Republicans.

However, once the American people realized that overturning Roe vs. Wade does not automatically illegalize abortion, things would settle down, and it would become a political battle in the state legislatures.  The end result is that nothing much would change.  Liberal states would have liberal abortion laws, while more conservative states that would pass more restrictive abortion laws offer little access to abortion at the present time.

Once the issue was settled in a more durable fashion, people would no longer need to vote on the abortion issue, and this could reduce the red state-blue state divide, as more people in the blue states look beyond abortion and see the Democrats as the party of weak defense, high crime and high taxes, and voters in red states may see some issues where they don't like the Republicans.

I think that Roe vs. Wade has monstrously distorted our politics and it exhibit A in the case against judicial activism.  I favor it being overturned regardless of who benefits politically, but I would certainly not make the facile assumption that the Democrats would benefit in the long run.

[A18]

What nonsense. Perhaps cutting taxes will make economic conservatives stop voting Republican.

Roe being overturned helps the Republicans. Voters would see that the Democratic false choice scenario of "Roe or no abortion" was a farce, and the only states that would restrict abortion are the states where it's unpopular anyway.

Social issues do not disappear just because one is returned to the political process.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that Roe vs. Wade has monstrously distorted our politics and it exhibit A in the case against judicial activism.  I favor it being overturned regardless of who benefits politically, but I would certainly not make the facile assumption that the Democrats would benefit in the long run.

Basically true; if (and it may be quite a big if; I decided to be optmistic in my answer) the Democrats changed as a result of it being over-turned, they would benefit, probably quite a lot, in the long run.
Right now (due to their money. Why do all these extremist groups have to be rich? ) the pro-abortionists have the national Democrats by the short-and-curlies... something that would almost certainly change if the constitutional "right" to an abortion was overturned and abortion was not instantly banned as a result (and o/c it wouldn't be).
That said... in some areas (like the area where you live) the long term beneficaries would almost certainly be the Republicans as the same thing that would happen to the pro-abortionists would happen to the ultra anti-abortionists.
It's a real, real shame that abortion was legalised in the way it was in the U.S actually...

[dazzleman]

It's a real, real shame that abortion was legalised in the way it was in the U.S actually...

Yes, you're right.  It was done the wrong way, because liberal interest groups wanted to take an illegitimate short cut.  They're trying the same thing now with gay marriage, and if they succeed, the ugly results will be the same.

[ATFFL]

A lot would depend on how the parties responded.  If the Democrats pushed for judges to give another, similar ruling, the Republicans would benefit.

If the Democrats pushed for legislative action, especially on the state level, they could get the long term benefit.

[Akno21]

If it resulted in a decrease in the number of abortions, the Democrats could benefit simply because, I would venture, of all mothers who have abortions, more are Democratic than Republican, and therefore would be more likely to have a Democratic child.

[dazzleman]

If it resulted in a decrease in the number of abortions, the Democrats could benefit simply because, I would venture, of all mothers who have abortions, more are Democratic than Republican, and therefore would be more likely to have a Democratic child.

A study that was done on this issue backs up your analysis on the effect of abortion on the political balance.

However, I don't think overturning Roe vs. Wade would change the number of abortions much.  I think it would remove a grotesque distortion from our political system, and mark a major blow against judicial activism as a way for nefarious interest groups to manipulate the legal system to impose unpopular policies undemocratically.

[nclib]

Democrats. Only reason I support overturning it. No more abortion litmus test getting the GOP lots of socially conservative blue collar voters.

I agree that overturning it would benefit Democrats, though I don't think it should be overturned simply for that reason. Republicans would be blamed for the consequences of illegal abortion.

[opebo]

However, I don't think overturning Roe vs. Wade would change the number of abortions much.  I think it would remove a grotesque distortion from our political system,

You dolt, what you describe as a 'grotesque distortion' is precisely identical to such distortions as the right to free speech an the right to wield guns.

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Lets say it is unpopular for you to be allowed to live?   Why not just let the mob string you up?  Have you no conception of the idea of individual rights, protected against the will of the majority?

[Emsworth]

Why not just let the mob string you up?  Have you no conception of the idea of individual rights, protected against the will of the majority?

Rights are subjective concepts. Just as you reject the notion of property rights, he might reject the notion of abortion rights.

[opebo]

Why not just let the mob string you up?  Have you no conception of the idea of individual rights, protected against the will of the majority?

Rights are subjective concepts. Just as you reject the notion of property rights, he might reject the notion of abortion rights.

He seems to be rejecting the idea of any constitutional rights.  He seems to believe that it is a 'grotesque distortion' for the majority not to be allowed to do precisely as they wish with the minority.

In other words my critique of his statement refers not to shock at his intolerant subjective preference, but at his rejection of the republican system of government in favor of the democracy.

[Emsworth]

He seems to be rejecting the idea of any constitutional rights.

That's a rather hypocritical statement coming from you. The Constitution protects the right to property just as much as it protects the right to liberty, yet you seem to reject the former.

[7,052,770]

In the long run, the Dems would benefit because there'd be a lot more poor minorities in the population voting.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

ending Roe V. Wade would mean theres more minorities which means that the US will have a white minority earlier than 2050 so bring it on!