NC-09: Who will win?

[ON Progressive]

Bishop narrowly, then he loses to McCready in November 2020.

I think McCready winning now and losing in 2020 is more likely tbh.

Small chance of new maps.

A fair map NC-09 might have to be really Safe R though.

[Devout Centrist]

Dan will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dan will win

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bishop narrowly, then he loses to McCready in November 2020.

I think McCready winning now and losing in 2020 is more likely tbh.

Small chance of new maps.

A fair map NC-09 might have to be really Safe R though.

Yes ironically. In fact hilarious anecdote, when the whole scandal broke last year my first reaction was "Why the hell is Robeson in the ninth?" What would likely happen is the 9th becomes a wrap around district covering Union, Carbarrus, and parts of Iredel and Rowan Counties, with the remainder of Mecklenburg not taken in by the 12th. Such a district would be between 57% and 60% Republican depending on how the lines are cut exactly. The 9th used to be a Charlotte Burbs district that cut through Mecklenburg on the SC border, but now that the 12 eats up most of Charlotte, a clean 9th district would cut around Charlotte to the North instead of the South and take in those very Republican wrap around counties as they are termed locally.

The 8th and/or 7th would taken in the Democratic parts of NC-09 under the present map and would become much closer. Rich Hudson would probably retire to keep himself safe to run for Senate in 2022 when Burr retires.

I mean you still would have a competitive seat, but I don't know where McCready lives so he might not benefit from a new map at all, meanwhile some other Democrats gets a Southern NC seat in Congress under such a scenario.

[😥]

Pure Tossup. Bishop 48.9% - McCready 48.1%

[DINGO Joe]

Bishop narrowly, then he loses to McCready in November 2020.

I think McCready winning now and losing in 2020 is more likely tbh.

Small chance of new maps.

A fair map NC-09 might have to be really Safe R though.

Yes ironically. In fact hilarious anecdote, when the whole scandal broke last year my first reaction was "Why the hell is Robeson in the ninth?" What would likely happen is the 9th becomes a wrap around district covering Union, Carbarrus, and parts of Iredel and Rowan Counties, with the remainder of Mecklenburg not taken in by the 12th. Such a district would be between 57% and 60% Republican depending on how the lines are cut exactly. The 9th used to be a Charlotte Burbs district that cut through Mecklenburg on the SC border, but now that the 12 eats up most of Charlotte, a clean 9th district would cut around Charlotte to the North instead of the South and take in those very Republican wrap around counties as they are termed locally.

The 8th and/or 7th would taken in the Democratic parts of NC-09 under the present map and would become much closer. Rich Hudson would probably retire to keep himself safe to run for Senate in 2022 when Burr retires.

I mean you still would have a competitive seat, but I don't know where McCready lives so he might not benefit from a new map at all, meanwhile some other Democrats gets a Southern NC seat in Congress under such a scenario.

Well, at this point Mecklenburg, Cabarrus and Union (or Gaston instead of Union) look like they'll have enough for two districts and possibly too much.  Cabarrus has been trending quite Dem, Gaston has some A-A parts, so it wouldn't take too much creativity to have a second Charlotte district that would be winnable for a Dem.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCready will win

[MT Treasurer]

McCready +1, if only because of the enthusiasm gap.

[Xing]

My final prediction, with #decimals to boot:

Bishop (R) - 49.7%
McCready (D) - 48.1%

[Skill and Chance]

Bishop narrowly, then he loses to McCready in November 2020.

I think McCready winning now and losing in 2020 is more likely tbh.

Small chance of new maps.

A fair map NC-09 might have to be really Safe R though.

Yes ironically. In fact hilarious anecdote, when the whole scandal broke last year my first reaction was "Why the hell is Robeson in the ninth?" What would likely happen is the 9th becomes a wrap around district covering Union, Carbarrus, and parts of Iredel and Rowan Counties, with the remainder of Mecklenburg not taken in by the 12th. Such a district would be between 57% and 60% Republican depending on how the lines are cut exactly. The 9th used to be a Charlotte Burbs district that cut through Mecklenburg on the SC border, but now that the 12 eats up most of Charlotte, a clean 9th district would cut around Charlotte to the North instead of the South and take in those very Republican wrap around counties as they are termed locally.

The 8th and/or 7th would taken in the Democratic parts of NC-09 under the present map and would become much closer. Rich Hudson would probably retire to keep himself safe to run for Senate in 2022 when Burr retires.

I mean you still would have a competitive seat, but I don't know where McCready lives so he might not benefit from a new map at all, meanwhile some other Democrats gets a Southern NC seat in Congress under such a scenario.

Yeah, Charlotte burbs aren't changing fast enough for a 2nd competitive district there.  If the map is thrown out, the additional Dem opportunities will be near RDU and Fayetteville.

[HarrisonL]

I hope McCready wins, but I expect Bishop to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting numbers are pretty good for McCready, but on the other hand it's still a pretty conservative district, so answering this question is quite difficult. Gun to my head I think that McCready is the slight favourite.

[Farmlands]

The race not getting much media attention, so little nationalisation of it, combined with stronger early voting for the Democratic Party than in 2018, leads me to believe in a McCready win.

[junior chįmp]

Generally speaking, research has shown that the most attractive candidate usually wins due to the halo effect.*

McCready is young and photogenic while Dan Bishop looks like the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz .

* (How significant is the power of attraction?  Attractiveness is more highly linked with electoral success than either trustworthiness or perceived competence.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/why-bad-looks-good/201607/voting-our-eyes-attractive-candidates-get-more-votes)

Im going with McReady

[Skill and Chance]

I'd give Bishop about a 70% chance. 

[IceSpear]

Generally speaking, research has shown that the most attractive candidate usually wins due to the halo effect.*

McCready is young and photogenic while Dan Bishop looks like the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz .

* (How significant is the power of attraction?  Attractiveness is more highly linked with electoral success than either trustworthiness or perceived competence.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/why-bad-looks-good/201607/voting-our-eyes-attractive-candidates-get-more-votes)

Im going with McReady

If only, then we'd have a Sen. Grimes.

[538Electoral]

Bishop will benefit from a Trump rally. I think Bishop will win by 2 points though I wouldn't be surprised if McCready wins either.

[538Electoral]

Bishop will benefit from a Trump rally. I think Bishop will win by 2 points though I wouldn't be surprised if McCready wins either.

Looks like I was right on the money!

[IceSpear]

Yet another "51-49 heartbreaker" for Democrats.

Nice call, lol.

[Xing]

My guess is Bishop, 50-48

Well, at least I was pretty close.

[J. J.]

This thread was a better indicator than the polls.

[UWS]

My guess is Bishop, 50-48

Well, at least I was pretty close.

That's approximately exactly these numbers.

[Mr. Smith]

Bishop by +0.9

Eh, off by +1.2, but who really expected that much of a collapse in Bladen Co.?