NC-09: Who will win?

[ElectionsGuy]

The poll will run for 7 days up until the election.

Bishop: 49.5%
McCready: 48.5%

[Politician]

McCready: 49% (WINNER)
Bishop: 46%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCready has internal polling showing himself ahead

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dan Bishop wins 51-47 methinks.

[S019]

McCready 50-48

[Brittain33]

Bishop 50-49. I really hope I’m wrong. PVI trumps early vote for me.

[Skunk]

Bishop wins by a point or so. Really hope I'm wrong, because he'd easily be the worst Congress cretin if he gets elected.

[Tender Branson]

50-46-3-1 McCready/Bishop

[Frenchrepublican]

Early voting numbers are pretty good for McCready, but on the other hand it's still a pretty conservative district, so answering this question is quite difficult. Gun to my head I think that McCready is the slight favourite.

[Calthrina950]

Bishop, by a narrow margin.

[Xing]

My guess is Bishop, 50-48, but I'd rate it Toss-Up instead of Lean R.

[Gracile]

Bishop (R) - 48.9%
McCready (D) - 47.8%
Others - 3.3%

(R +1.1%, Republican HOLD)

[Del Tachi]

Bishop

[President Johnson]

Bishop wins 50-47%

[Lisa's voting Biden]

McCready by 2-3.

[Thunder98]

McCready +0.5%

[DaWN]

Bishop by 5 or so. Not buying this one as all that winnable. Sorry. Prove me wrong voters of NC-09.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

51% Bishop, 46% McCready. Based on the polls I've seen (including the RRH poll I got an hour early) and the 2016 results in that district, I think 46% is close to the exact percentage McCready will get in the end, whereas Bishop will get most of the undecideds and end up at 51%.

[Calthrina950]

51% Bishop, 46% McCready. Based on the polls I've seen (including the RRH poll I got an hour early) and the 2016 results in that district, I think 46% is close to the exact percentage McCready will get in the end, whereas Bishop will get most of the undecideds and end up at 51%.

I think that you are probably right, though McCready could conceivably get as high as 48% or 49%. Bishop, however, should garner somewhere between 50-53% of the vote, as you've indicated.

[Trans Rights Are Human Rights]

Climbing Dan narrowly defeats actually-named Dan and the thread of prophecy is severed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McReady, but only b/c of the Libertarian

[I Can Now Die Happy]

51% Bishop, 46% McCready. Based on the polls I've seen (including the RRH poll I got an hour early) and the 2016 results in that district, I think 46% is close to the exact percentage McCready will get in the end, whereas Bishop will get most of the undecideds and end up at 51%.

I think that you are probably right, though McCready could conceivably get as high as 48% or 49%. Bishop, however, should garner somewhere between 50-53% of the vote, as you've indicated.

One thing to mention is that the special election dynamic means that it could end up being more like OH-12 special, PA-18 special, GA-06 special, etc.

McCready is a decent candidate who is well funded and is in a district with lots of high turnout white liberals.

I'm basing this "undecideds break mostly R" over AL-SEN 2017 (FOX poll), IN-SEN 2018, MO-SEN 2018. Thing is those were Senate races and the latter two were in a 'general election'. First one was in December, not September.

If it's like OH-12 then I really wouldn't be surprised if it's Bishop+1, similar to the 2018 result.

PA-12 special was a great GOP performance but the Democrat in that district was not as strong or well funded as McCready.

edit: oh, and another thing. Another dynamic at play is polls often overestimating third party vote share. Wouldn't be surprised if third party combined share is less than 1%.

[Mr. Smith]

Bishop by +0.9

[Calthrina950]

51% Bishop, 46% McCready. Based on the polls I've seen (including the RRH poll I got an hour early) and the 2016 results in that district, I think 46% is close to the exact percentage McCready will get in the end, whereas Bishop will get most of the undecideds and end up at 51%.

I think that you are probably right, though McCready could conceivably get as high as 48% or 49%. Bishop, however, should garner somewhere between 50-53% of the vote, as you've indicated.

One thing to mention is that the special election dynamic means that it could end up being more like OH-12 special, PA-18 special, GA-06 special, etc.

McCready is a decent candidate who is well funded and is in a district with lots of high turnout white liberals.

I'm basing this "undecideds break mostly R" over AL-SEN 2017 (FOX poll), IN-SEN 2018, MO-SEN 2018. Thing is those were Senate races and the latter two were in a 'general election'. First one was in December, not September.

If it's like OH-12 then I really wouldn't be surprised if it's Bishop+1, similar to the 2018 result.

PA-12 special was a great GOP performance but the Democrat in that district was not as strong or well funded as McCready.

edit: oh, and another thing. Another dynamic at play is polls often overestimating third party vote share. Wouldn't be surprised if third party combined share is less than 1%.

I fully agree with you, particularly the part about undecideds. Time and time again, we have seen that "undecided voters" in the South are in reality, and for the most part, Republican or Republican-leaning voters who seem to mask their true intentions from the pollsters. And when the actual voting takes place, they demonstrate their true partisan allegiances by breaking for the Republican candidate. It's part of why I think Bevin and Reeves will win in Kentucky and Mississippi this November. And part of why I believe Bishop has a slight advantage in this race.

[OneJ]

Bishop 49-48.