Quinnipiac-PA: Biden +11, Sanders +7, Waren +3, Harris Tied, Butti +1, Beto -2

[Alben Barkley]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.  

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.

Biden leading by 11 is almost as realistic than Trump leading by 4 in WI

Biden is from Pennsylvania and a ticket with Biden on it won the state easily twice. Trump only won it by a fraction of a percentage point due to depressed Democratic turnout that would not exist with Biden as the nominee. Many more whites, suburban voters, blue collar voters, moderates, and independents — especially in that state — would likely break for Biden in a head-to-head with Trump. Trump currently has a -7 approval in PA according to Morning Consult, but it does not follow that means the poll is overestimating Biden, as “Who would you vote for” and “Who do you approve of” questions are different, and you can’t just add Trump’s 2016 margin in an entirely different race against an entirely different candidate on top like that. That’s now how math works. That’s not how anything works...

[ElectionsGuy]

Assuming this poll isn't complete junk if Biden can keep that lead he has this state. But in the future, if his % slips down to 46-47%, and Trump is at 44-45%, prepare for another Trump victory.

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.  

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.

Biden leading by 11 is almost as realistic than Trump leading by 4 in WI

Biden is from Pennsylvania and a ticket with Biden on it won the state easily twice. Trump only won it by a fraction of a percentage point due to depressed Democratic turnout that would not exist with Biden as the nominee. Many more whites, suburban voters, blue collar voters, moderates, and independents — especially in that state — would likely break for Biden in a head-to-head with Trump. Trump currently has a -7 approval in PA according to Morning Consult, but it does not follow that means the poll is overestimating Biden, as “Who would you vote for” and “Who do you approve of” questions are different, and you can’t just add Trump’s 2016 margin in an entirely different race against an entirely different candidate on top like that. That’s now how math works. That’s not how anything works...

I’m realistic and I know that Biden would have the advantage over Trump in PA, but even with his home state advantage Biden won’t win PA by 11, he could win by a healthy margin of something like 52/47 but a double digits margin is difficult to believe unless he wins in a true landslide nationally. Concerning the approval rate of Trump, the fact that quinnipiac has him at -12 while he is at -8 nationally let me believe that they have simply oversampled democrat leaning voters and thus the poll will be too optimistic for them

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Beto has been going around claiming he is most electable.....

I mean, he did do the best against Trump in that poll a couple of weeks ago...

[FRSJ]

it's May 2019.

On November 2020 after an all out offense (with a lil bit of defense) from The Don, it would probably be something like

Trump+4 over Bye-Done
Trump+5 over Burlington Bohemian
Trump+6 over The Awkward Professor From Oklahoma
Trump+7 over The Spastic Skateboarder From Texas
Trump+8 over The Judger of Booties
Trump+9 over Mrs. Willie Lewis Brown Jr.

Do I detect a pattern here?

Inventing hypothetical poll numbers and then saying there's a pattern within the hypothetical that you made up... that's a new one.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I wonder what Ohio is looking like right now with a Trump v Biden match up.

[Annatar]

To me the most important fact that can be gleaned from the poll is that Biden is polling the best in PA relative to the other candidates vs Trump. I would like to see how he is doing in Michigan vs Trump, that would show whether Biden does really benefit from a home state bump or not. Trump right now vs Biden seems to be where he was in early August 2016 in PA, the Quinnipiac poll done in the first week of August found Clinton leading Trump 52-42, virtually identical numbers to Biden's lead.

Regarding Quinnipiac the only point I would make is it has had a fairly heavy dem bias in both the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, so I would subtract a few % from their numbers for the dems. Their last poll done Oct 27th - Nov 1st had Clinton leading by 6%, 50-44, similar to Sanders lead today and was off by the biggest margin relative to the final result of any of the major pollsters. They also were off by some pretty big margins in some of the 2018 races they polled.   

[Devils30]

Harris numbers with the WWC might be worse than Clinton 2016, same goes for Warren but there are huge red flags for Dems with these two.

[Annatar]

Digging into cross tabs is of course dangerous but I compared how dems were doing vs Trump with non-college whites  compared to how Clinton did based off The Center for American Progress (CAP) analysis which is the best analysis I have seen of the numbers from 2016.
 
In 2016 Trump won non-college whites by 29% according to the CAP analysis, according to the poll this is the margin Trump gets vs the dem candidates.

Trump/Biden: +18
Trump/Sanders: +26
Trump/Warren:+29
Trump/Harris: +30
Trump/Pete: +28
Trump/Beto: +29
Trump Net Approve: +18

Biden is the only one that is really outperforming Clinton with non-college whites and is also the only candidate that is holding Trump's margins with those voters to what Trumps net approval is with that group.

[Frenchrepublican]

To me the most important fact that can be gleaned from the poll is that Biden is polling the best in PA relative to the other candidates vs Trump. I would like to see how he is doing in Michigan vs Trump, that would show whether Biden does really benefit from a home state bump or not. Trump right now vs Biden seems to be where he was in early August 2016 in PA, the Quinnipiac poll done in the first week of August found Clinton leading Trump 52-42, virtually identical numbers to Biden's lead.

Regarding Quinnipiac the only point I would make is it has had a fairly heavy dem bias in both the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, so I would subtract a few % from their numbers for the dems. Their last poll done Oct 27th - Nov 1st had Clinton leading by 6%, 50-44, similar to Sanders lead today and was off by the biggest margin relative to the final result of any of the major pollsters. They also were off by some pretty big margins in some of the 2018 races they polled.   

Yeah, they had Nelson up 51/44

[Frenchrepublican]

Harris numbers with the WWC might be worse than Clinton 2016, same goes for Warren but there are huge red flags for Dems with these two.

Don’t worry too much guy, they won’t be the D nominee unless something exceptional happens

[Frenchrepublican]

I wonder what Ohio is looking like right now with a Trump v Biden match up.

Polls will very likely show a very close race but considering that polls tend to overestimate Dems in this state (Cordray vs Dewine) I don’t see you should give them too much value

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

it's May 2019.

On November 2020 after an all out offense (with a lil bit of defense) from The Don, it would probably be something like

Trump+4 over Bye-Done
Trump+5 over Burlington Bohemian
Trump+6 over The Awkward Professor From Oklahoma
Trump+7 over The Spastic Skateboarder From Texas
Trump+8 over The Judger of Booties
Trump+9 over Mrs. Willie Lewis Brown Jr.

Do I detect a pattern here?

Son, stick to letting Trump make the nicknames around here.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably too bullish on Biden, but PA definitely isn’t voting for Trump before WI, lol. Tilt/Lean D.

[Xing]

Probably too bullish on Biden, but PA definitely isn’t voting for Trump before WI, lol. Tilt/Lean D.

PA: D+ mid-high single digits = Lean D
WI: D+ mid-high single digits = Lean R, destined to vote way to the right of the other state, as well as NC and maybe even TX.

Seems legit.

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably too bullish on Biden, but PA definitely isn’t voting for Trump before WI, lol. Tilt/Lean D.

PA: D+ mid-high single digits = Lean D
WI: D+ mid-high single digits = Lean R, destined to vote way to the right of the other state, as well as NC and maybe even TX.

Seems legit.

Well, Biden has Scranton style populism and home state advantage in Pennsylvania, whereas Scott Walker and Brian Hagedorn prove Wisconsin is a red state. /s

[ProgressiveCanadian]

General election polls this early have to do with name recognition. Clinton was also leading by a lot in swing states in 2015.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

In PA, Quinnipiac shows Trump 42/54.



https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

But nationally, Quinnipiac shows Trump's approval on 38/57 (57!!!). -19% down that is. While other Gold Standard polls shows him about 6-12% down.

May be, Q are on something, may be, they are not. But the PA still seems 3-4% to the right of the nation. Interesting.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Andrew Gillum agrees Quinnipiac is accurate

[Progressive Pessimist]

Andrew Gillum agrees Quinnipiac is accurate

To be fair, that's Florida though. I don't trust any Florida poll even if it's from a high quality pollster, especially not one where a Democrat is leading. Any other state, and Quinnipiac is pretty good quality.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2019-05-14

Summary: D: 52%, R: 43%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details