Rate United Virginia
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June 02, 2024, 08:41:46 PM
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  Rate United Virginia 		« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Your rating
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Toss up		  
#6
Tilt D		  
#7
Lean D		  
#8
Likely D		  
#9
Safe D		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 84

Author Topic: Rate United Virginia  (Read 1452 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
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E: 1.48, S: 1.30

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« on: June 22, 2020, 08:46:34 AM »
Virginia and West Virginia (Unconstitutional state btw) gets united, how would you rate this state?

2016 results of United Virginia:

Trump: 2,258,814
Clinton: 2,170,267
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2020, 08:48:57 AM »
Tossup
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2020, 10:25:27 AM »
Tossup
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UkrainianRepublican
Mr.Marat
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Ukraine


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E: 5.55, S: 0.52

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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2020, 10:32:07 AM »
Tilt R.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2020, 10:36:51 AM »
Tilt D if not more.  Biden will clean up in VA (growing especially in NOVA) and will clearly offset any margin Trump gets in WV.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2020, 10:38:22 AM »
Tilt D. Biden will improve in NoVA, and I feel like he'll be marginally stronger in West Virginia than Hillary was.
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Buzz
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2020, 10:41:33 AM »
Tossup but Tilt R if I had to chose
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2020, 10:43:22 AM »
It’s „Greater Virginia“, not „United Virginia“.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2020, 11:37:59 AM »
Likely D because there aren’t enough votes in WV to overcome a double-digit loss in VA.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2020, 11:41:33 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on June 22, 2020, 11:37:59 AM
Likely D because there aren’t enough votes in WV to overcome a double-digit loss in VA.

Agreed. But in future elections Greater Virginia could be tilt R especially if the win in "Eastern" VA is meager or moderate and the WV part is deep blood red like in 2016 (and maybe this year).

If you used that Hayes' guys tool and combine WV and VA, it'd go for Trump narrowly.
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Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2020, 12:13:48 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2020, 01:01:23 PM by Buckhead Kelly »
Quote from: Councilor CookieDamage (L-NJ) on June 22, 2020, 11:41:33 AM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on June 22, 2020, 11:37:59 AM
Likely D because there aren’t enough votes in WV to overcome a double-digit loss in VA.

Agreed. But in future elections Greater Virginia could be tilt R especially if the win in "Eastern" VA is meager or moderate and the WV part is deep blood red like in 2016 (and maybe this year).

If you used that Hayes' guys tool and combine WV and VA, it'd go for Trump narrowly.

With the exception of Illinois, West Virginia is the fastest shrinking states numerical wise so even if Republicans do better margin wise it will still be a net loss in raw votes.
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😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
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Ukraine
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2020, 12:49:09 PM »
Lean D. Biden will significantly improve in NoVA and he is far better fit for West Virginia than Hillary
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2020, 02:24:31 PM »
If raw turnout is identical, and Biden wins VA by 8 points, and Trump wins WV by 42 points, that would make United Virginia a dead heat.

I think Biden will win VA by more than 8 points, so this is Tilt D.
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Esteemed Jimmy
Jimmy7812
Junior Chimp
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E: 2.47, S: -1.05

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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2020, 02:26:34 PM »
Lean D
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Left Wing
FalterinArc
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E: -8.26, S: -6.09


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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2020, 02:32:45 PM »
As long as Joe Biden doesn't say he is going to put coal miners out of a job, I think he'll win here.
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Lognog
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2020, 03:34:31 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 22, 2020, 10:43:22 AM
It’s „Greater Virginia“, not „United Virginia“.

It's not real greater Virginia unless it has Kentucky
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2020, 07:12:31 PM »
Lean D. 

Virginia is growing, West Virginia is shrinking.  Biden will do better than Clinton did in both.
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Adam Griffin
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Greece


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E: -7.35, S: -6.26

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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2020, 08:12:56 PM »
Official margins/raw vote for the past 3 elections:

2263389   Obama   51.00%
2122471     McCain   47.82%
52523         Other     1.18%

2240177   Romney   49.49%
2210089     Obama      48.82%
76342        Other        1.69%

2258814   Trump   48.01%
2170267    Clinton   46.14%
274904      Other      5.85%

2008: Obama +3.18
2012: Romney +0.67
2016: Trump +1.87
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2020, 08:26:46 PM »
If West Virginia never existed, Safe R because Dems would not have seriously targeted it prior to now and would not have any ground game.

If the two states merged tomorrow, Likely D. Dems would now have a reason to campaign in WV and would have a high ceiling.
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