MA-SEN 2020

[Zaybay]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Hey,  even Sirwoodsberry isn't that trash

[YE]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

[Zaybay]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

What would be the opposite of a Nazi? I guess a Syndicalist?

[YE]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

What would be the opposite of a Nazi? I guess a Syndicalist?

A tankie so someone like TNF.

[Zaybay]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

What would be the opposite of a Nazi? I guess a Syndicalist?

A tankie so someone like TNF.

Ah, I see.

TBH, I don't really see the similarities between me, SirWoods and Politician. Perhaps I'm just being daft, but I feel the connection isn't particularly justifiable.

[Brittain33]

Now let us look at Baker: high name recognition, unlike Bullock he won by a landslide in a ultra D year in dem heartland Massachusetts, his approval ratings is currently the best in the country (Bullock is around 50%), Markey has low name recognition and is probably a bad candidate too (considering the fact he has never experienced a close race) Baker has run tons of campaigns and practically slaughtered Gonzalez, and Trump on the same ballot won't damage him because he successfully distanced himself from him.

No 👏 Republican 👏 has 👏 won 👏 a 👏 regular 👏 senate 👏 race 👏 in 👏 Massachusetts 👏 in 👏 for- 👏 ty 👏 six 👏 years!

We have had a large number of popular Republican governors since then: Weld, Cellucci, Baker, even Romney was popular in his first term. All of them except Weld knew that it was fruitless to run for federal office from Massachusetts and didn't even try.

Baker isn't a moron and isn't going to run into this buzz saw.

You can turn around your argument about "never had a tough opponent", too—Baker defeated the hapless *Martha Coakley* by less than 2 points in a good Republican year, and Gonzalez was a no-name, no-money, no-hoper who was not a serious candidate and had weak party support. Lest we forget, Baker also lost to an incumbent Dem when he ran for governor in 2010, another good Republican year. He'd be Blanched like a Landrieu if he dared to run for Senate in 2020. And again, he knows it.

[Zaybay]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

Oh has SirWoodbury said some colorful things? I haven’t been on here much in the past month. I was referring more to Politician and Zaybay’s incessant cheerleading for Dems and insistence that Dems can win races they obviously won’t win in

Sure, I've favored Ds in my predictions and analysis(then again, find me someone who doesn't have a bias), but I don't see a race that I've claimed a D can win besides MD-Gov back in July.

[brucejoel99]

LOL obviously Safe D, even if "His Excellency Governor for Life, General Doctor Charles Duane Baker IV, Director, CEO, Secretary, Lord of all the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Sea, and Conqueror of the United States of America in General and Massachusetts in Particular" runs.

Democrats:
If Bullock runs: Pure Toss up
If Baker Runs: OMG SAFE TITANIUM D

You can't say Montana isn't a toss-up, especially after the Tester result & the fact that Bullock won by 4 in what was basically a GOP wave year. Daines, on the other hand, is only Senator b/c 2014 was a perfect storm for the MT GOP, which won't be replicated in 2020.

Meanwhile, Baker's not winning a federal race in a state where Trump gets slaughtered at the top of the ballot, esp. w/ Trump being the gigantic boulder on his shoulders that'll gradually crush him closer & closer to the election.

Tester & Bullock were both incumbents running against carpetbaggers/bad candidates, Bullock would have been slaughtered if Fox had joined the race. Tester barely survived due to multiple factors: He was an incumbent, 2018 was a D year, Rosendale was a ultra bad candidate and a carpetbagger, hense the nickname "Maryland Matt" which damaged Rosendale's image, another factor is Tester's pathetic sucking up to Trump, pretending to be a blue dog, and last but not least the tariffs which damaged Trump in Montana. Now let's look at Daines: He's lived in Montana almost all his life, he's an incumbent, former congressman, Trump's on the ballot again, there is no way Montanans want an all-dem delegation at the senate, if the Montana GOP fields a good candidate at the gubernatorial race Daines could perhaps get a boost by the candidate's coattails.

Now let us look at Baker: high name recognition, unlike Bullock he won by a landslide in a ultra D year in dem heartland Massachusetts, his approval ratings is currently the best in the country (Bullock is around 50%), Markey has low name recognition and is probably a bad candidate too (considering the fact he has never experienced a close race) Baker has run tons of campaigns and practically slaughtered Gonzalez, and Trump on the same ballot won't damage him because he successfully distanced himself from him.

LOL obviously Safe D, even if "His Excellency Governor for Life, General Doctor Charles Duane Baker IV, Director, CEO, Secretary, Lord of all the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Sea, and Conqueror of the United States of America in General and Massachusetts in Particular" runs.

Democrats:
If Bullock runs: Pure Toss up
If Baker Runs: OMG SAFE TITANIUM D

Montana is a purple state downballot; Massachusetts is not.

This. ^^

Baker got re-elected b/c he was running for Governor in a state that likes crossing over for competent Republican governors. They're not crazy, though: they wouldn't elect him, or any Republican, to a federal office in a regular election; no Republican has won a regular Senate election in Massachusetts since 1972. Baker, like any of his competent Republican predecessors not named Bill Weld, isn't gonna try & commit career suicide in the process.

[Politician]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

Oh has SirWoodbury said some colorful things? I haven’t been on here much in the past month. I was referring more to Politician and Zaybay’s incessant cheerleading for Dems and insistence that Dems can win races they obviously won’t win in

You predicted Rosendale and Morrissey would win so you're not exactly batting 100 either

[swords]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

Oh has SirWoodbury said some colorful things? I haven’t been on here much in the past month. I was referring more to Politician and Zaybay’s incessant cheerleading for Dems and insistence that Dems can win races they obviously won’t win in

exactly. He predicted wrong of FLSen,FLGov,MOSen,INSen,GAGov,IAGov(Not even 'Lean D', 'Likely D')
 

Zaybay's 2018 prediction(key races)
FLSen- Likely Nelson(D)
FLGov - Likely Gillum(D)
MOSen - Likely McCaskill(D)
INSen - Likely Donelly(D)
GAGov - Likely Abrams(D)
NVSen - Likely Rosen(D)
TXSen - Likely Cruz(R)
AZSen - Likely Sinema(D)
KSGov - Lean Kelly(D)
IAGov - Likely Hubell(D)
WIGov - Likely Evers(D) (but results of the WIGov D+1)
 

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=18435
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=18435

[Zaybay]

Heller is going to win.

I agree. After Michael reached landfall, Scott had this in the bag. 51-48 for Scott.

You are really going all in on a Scott+2 poll, huh?

Not really. All the fundamentals point to a Scott victory. Trump having a positive net approval there, Hurricane Michael, Scott's fortune and his good relationship with the hispanics and Nelson being old and having no message. I do not believe that Nelson will prevail. In fact, I think Nelson will underperform Clinton. Michael was just a nail in the coffin. In the coming weeks you will see Scott's number rise in the polls from the hurricane bump.

Bet you didn't see this god-like prediction did you?
Not willing to respond to me properly so you instead try to mock me?

You’re the Republican version of Zaybay and Politician.

Zaybay and Politician shouldn’t be compared to Nazis.

Oh has SirWoodbury said some colorful things? I haven’t been on here much in the past month. I was referring more to Politician and Zaybay’s incessant cheerleading for Dems and insistence that Dems can win races they obviously won’t win in

exactly.

Zaybay's 2018 prediction(key races)
FLSen- Likely lean Nelson(D)
FLGov - Likely lean Gillum(D)
MOSen -tossup McCaskill(D)
INSen - Likely tossup Donelly(D)
GAGov - tossup Abrams(D)
NVSen - Likely lean Rosen(D)
TXSen - Likely lean Cruz(R)
AZSen - Likely lean Sinema(D)
KSGov - Lean tossup Kelly(D)
IAGov - Likely tossup Hubell(D)
WIGov - Likely Lean Evers(D)
 

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=18435
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=18435

I mean, thats not cheerleading, and I did predict the correct amount of house seat flips exactly(D+40, though if the Ds win the NC special than Ill be off by 1), but I did make some poor choices for those key races in hindsight, and Ive adjusted my thinking accordingly(as I said before, no one is without some bias), such as to not rely so much on polling, which had every candidate leading that I listed to win.

(BTW, those arent my ratings(not even my final ratings, didnt have time to post them), and you literally linked them below. I fixed them for ya )