Trafalgar: Heller +3

[2016]

People are letting their overconfidence show through again by immediately dismissing this poll. It is not over until it's over. While I firmly believe, based upon the early turnout numbers, that Rosen will win at this point, I don't think celebration is yet warranted.

I'm agreeing with you. While Rosen certainly has the edge it's never over until it's over.

[Person Man]

People are letting their overconfidence show through again by immediately dismissing this poll. It is not over until it's over. While I firmly believe, based upon the early turnout numbers, that Rosen will win at this point, I don't think celebration is yet warranted.

I'm agreeing with you. While Rosen certainly has the edge it's never over until it's over.

I suppose there are Independents getting cold feet and who are beginning to think Trumpism is the only game in town.

[Calthrina950]

People are letting their overconfidence show through again by immediately dismissing this poll. It is not over until it's over. While I firmly believe, based upon the early turnout numbers, that Rosen will win at this point, I don't think celebration is yet warranted.

I'm agreeing with you. While Rosen certainly has the edge it's never over until it's over.

The same has to be kept in mind for all of the other competitive races. The early turnout numbers in Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Florida do not tell us what will happen in those states.

[DrScholl]

And if Heller doesn't win the argument will be "let's wait until there is an investigation to see if there was fraud, it isn't over until it's over". We know Trump will claim fraud the minute things go wrong for Republicans and some on Atlas will believe him.

[Pericles]

Trump approval

Approve: 50.6%

Disapprove: 47.5%

Wow. Trump’s approval rating improving by so much in Nevada. These are definitely good news for Heller.

Lol I thought this was sarcasm bit you're actually serious. Lmao.

[Calthrina950]

And if Heller doesn't win the argument will be "let's wait until there is an investigation to see if there was fraud, it isn't over until it's over". We know Trump will claim fraud the minute things go wrong for Republicans and some on Atlas will believe him.

Where did you get the idea about fraud? I've made clear my belief that Rosen will win, but I am frustrated by the Atlas community's tendency to disregard any views that contradict their own, such as in polls.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People are letting their overconfidence show through again by immediately dismissing this poll. It is not over until it's over. While I firmly believe, based upon the early turnout numbers, that Rosen will win at this point, I don't think celebration is yet warranted.

I'm agreeing with you. While Rosen certainly has the edge it's never over until it's over.

The same has to be kept in mind for all of the other competitive races. The early turnout numbers in Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Florida do not tell us what will happen in those states.

I agree, Manchin still has a chance despite how the early votes are looking.

[DrScholl]

And if Heller doesn't win the argument will be "let's wait until there is an investigation to see if there was fraud, it isn't over until it's over". We know Trump will claim fraud the minute things go wrong for Republicans and some on Atlas will believe him.

Where did you get the idea about fraud? I've made clear my belief that Rosen will win, but I am frustrated by the Atlas community's tendency to disregard any views that contradict their own, such as in polls.

Because that is the Republican/Trump refrain (he claimed he only lost California because of illegal votes).

[Sestak]

NV FREIWAL looks promising for Rosen, and NV early vote actually is a reasonable indicator unlike most states. This poll hopefully gets proven wrong in three days.

[Calthrina950]

And if Heller doesn't win the argument will be "let's wait until there is an investigation to see if there was fraud, it isn't over until it's over". We know Trump will claim fraud the minute things go wrong for Republicans and some on Atlas will believe him.

Where did you get the idea about fraud? I've made clear my belief that Rosen will win, but I am frustrated by the Atlas community's tendency to disregard any views that contradict their own, such as in polls.

Because that is the Republican/Trump refrain (he claimed he only lost California because of illegal votes).

I'm aware that many in the Republican base hold this belief. I, obviously, do not, and this was not even what I was thinking about when sharing my views about this poll.

[Hammy]

I should point out that Trafalgar was the ONLY poll that showed Trump winning Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada has it's polling issues but I wouldn't dismiss this one so quickly.

[Gass3268]

I should point out that Trafalgar was the ONLY poll that showed Trump winning Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada has it's polling issues but I wouldn't dismiss this one so quickly.

They've also sucked since 2016. They were awful in Alabama and Virginia.

[IceSpear]

I should point out that Trafalgar was the ONLY poll that showed Trump winning Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada has it's polling issues but I wouldn't dismiss this one so quickly.

They've also sucked since 2016. They were awful in Alabama and Virginia.

Not to mention that I'm pretty sure their 2016 Nevada poll where they were off by 7 points is more relevant to their 2018 Nevada poll than their 2016 Michigan/Pennsylvania polls are.

[CookieDamage]

I should point out that Trafalgar was the ONLY poll that showed Trump winning Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada has it's polling issues but I wouldn't dismiss this one so quickly.

They've also sucked since 2016. They were awful in Alabama and Virginia.

Not to mention that I'm pretty sure their 2016 Nevada poll where they were off by 7 points is more relevant to their 2018 Nevada poll than their 2016 Michigan/Pennsylvania polls are.

Yeah but that hurts the "Rosen is not gonna win" narrative

[YE]

we need a nationwide ban on polls

[IceSpear]

we need a nationwide ban on polls

At least on Nevada polls. Until we figure out what's going on.

[Hammy]

Good Lord, I just checked 2016 for comparison (and yep, Trafalgar was off by quite a bit)

The two closest polls in Nevada? Gravis and Emerson which is quite sad

[Woody]

Heller is going to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Heller isn't gonna to win, NV polls had Heck winning as well

[Woody]

No, Heller isn't gonna to win, NV polls had Heck winning as well

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was saying that in retrospect that it's a tossup, but Rosen has a great chance of being Senate. Nothing is inevitable.

[SN2903]

Early turnout means nothing. The media was hyping the early vote in 2016 and GOP dominated on election day.

[Xing]

Early turnout means nothing. The media was hyping the early vote in 2016 and GOP dominated on election day.

Except in Nevada, where they, you know, lost in 2016. I know it's inconvenient, but the "everything will be like 2016" argument doesn't support the idea that Heller will win.

[Lachi]

Early turnout means nothing. The media was hyping the early vote in 2016 and GOP dominated on election day.

It does in NV when something like 60-65% Early vote

[ON Progressive]

Early turnout means nothing. The media was hyping the early vote in 2016 and GOP dominated on election day.

In the vast majority of states, you would be correct that early voting is best ignored. However, Nevada is a clear exception.

Early voting was how Jon Ralston was able to predict Hillary winning the state in 2016 despite the polls saying otherwise. Early voting was how he was able to predict Harry Reid winning despite literally every single poll in the final two weeks showing Reid losing.