Senate Control Rating

[2016]

I'm changing my Vote from Likely R to Safe R.

TN was the Race I was mostly worried about but Blackburn seems on Track to win by a similar Margin Corker beat Ford Jr. in 2006. TX looks Likely R.

Republicans therefore only need to get one 1 Seat of either IN, FL, MO, ND or MT even if they lose in AZ & NV. And they will win at least one of those 5 I mentioned.

I agree. Republicans will hold Texas and Tennessee, and I believe that they will pick up both North Dakota and Missouri. Indiana is also moving in Braun's direction, and I'm starting to think that Donnelly will lose. If that happens, that will be three Republican pickups. At the same time, based upon Early Voting data, I believe Rosen is on track to win in Nevada. Sinema is also leading in the most recent polls out of Arizona. Hence, as I've thought from the beginning, Arizona and Nevada will be Democratic pickups. However, they will be canceled out by North Dakota and Missouri, so I think the Senate will either be neutral or (depending upon how Indiana goes) R+1.

Indiana is very important. Should Republicans win that we probably have an early Night and us Political Junkies don't have to stay up all Night.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R. The real question is whether the Democrats can manage to break even or possibly lose a seat or two.

[musicblind]

Likely R.

I feel Republicans have about a 90% chance of retaining control of the Senate.

[musicblind]

Likely R. I would say Safe R, but I’m not quite ready to call ND or TX Safe R.

MS and TN are Safe R in a big Democratic wave year?

TN, yes. MS Special becomes very interesting if Hyde-Smith fails to make the runoff, but assuming she does, it’s going to be very hard for Epsy to win. I’d say Likely R for that race.

Why, though? I agree that Blackburn is underrated on this forum (but let’s be honest, virtually every Republican in a competitive race is), but all it would take is a polling error in favor of Democrats for Bredesen to win, and competitive races usually break in the same direction in big wave years. The race is about as Safe R as AL-SEN 2017 in a Democratic wave.

Blackburn is a lot of things I don't like, but she is not a sexual predator. She is not a lawbreaker.

You can't compare any race to the Alabama Senate race. That was a very special case. People weren't voting for the Democratic party as much as they were voting against a vile, horrible, evil human being.

I don't believe any Senator, Democrat or Republican, deserves to be compared to the likes of Roy Moore. Not even Ted Cruz.

[Confused Democrat]

Can we be serious for a second?

Who in there right mind sees the Dems winning the Senate as even a remote chance?

Absolute BEST I could see is a 50/50 tie (R’s +1 in ND, D’s +2 in NV/AZ)

Montana: Tossup (closer to Tilt D)
North Dakota: Safe R
Indiana: Tossup (closer to Tilt D)
West Virginia: Lean D
Missouri: Tossup (closer to Tilt R)
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Florida: Tossup
Arizona: Tossup
Nevada: Lean R

I'd say there's about a 20% chance they take control of the Senate.

Using your best case scenario for Democrats (which I think is very likely to happen), all Democrats would have to do is pull off an upset in either ND, TX, or TN. I mean it's certainly not an inconceivable outcome for Democrats to take control of the Senate.